UFC Vegas 123 Predictions: Picks And Props For Renato Moicano Vs. Tom Nolan

UFC Vegas 123 Predictions: Renato Moicano Vs. Tom Nolan© Instagram

UFC Vegas 123 takes place Saturday at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, with prelims starting at 2 p.m. PT and the main card at 5 p.m. PT. The card is headlined by a lightweight bout that opened with Renato Moicano as a significant favorite and has drifted to something close to a coin flip. That line movement alone makes it one of the more interesting betting puzzles on this card. The case for Moicano rests on grappling and efficiency. He lands 49 percent of his strikes compared to Nolan's 45 percent, absorbs fewer shots per minute (3.55 versus 3.74), and deflects 59 percent of strikes thrown at him. His takedown finishing rate of 40 percent and a submission win rate over half his career stoppages give him a clear path if he can get Nolan to the mat. Docs Sports analyst Guy Bruhn takes Moicano, pointing to the grappling gap as the decisive factor. The over 1.5 rounds is priced at -210, reflecting how heavily the market expects this to go to the later rounds.

Main Event: Moicano vs. Nolan Is Nearly a Pick 'Em

Moicano (21-7-1) opened around -170 and has settled near -115 to -122 depending on the book, with Tom Nolan ranging from even money to -105. The value argument for Nolan centers on his four-inch height advantage, a one-inch reach edge at 73 inches, and the fact that he is 11 years younger at 26. He is also coming off a unanimous decision win over Fares Ziam where he landed 46 percent of his significant strikes and threw at a rate of nearly five per minute.

Best Bet on the Card: Julian Erosa at +145

VSiN analyst Lou Finocchiaro's best bet for the card is Julian Erosa at +145 in the co-main featherweight bout against Jeong Yeong Lee (-175). Finocchiaro's reasoning: Erosa's size and grappling give him a real path to a finish on the mat, and Lee's power is not considered fight-ending. The under 1.5 rounds in that bout sits at -135.

The rest of the main card features Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith at welterweight, Ode' Osbourne vs. Cody Durden at flyweight, and Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos at bantamweight.