New poll reveals Northern Ireland’s Brexit regret as Burnham eyes ‘win-win’ EU deal

A decade on from the Brexit referendum, more than half of voters in Northern Ireland favour the UK rejoining the European Union, according to a new public opinion survey.

The latest poll from Queen’s University Belfast also reveals that over three-quarters of respondents would welcome an agreement at an upcoming UK-EU summit to ease controls and checks on goods moving into Northern Ireland from Great Britain.

Conducted on behalf of the university by polling firm LucidTalk, the survey highlights a continuing decline in support for the Windsor Framework, with only 45% viewing it as "on balance a good thing for Northern Ireland" – its lowest rating since June 2021.

Just 44% of participants currently consider the Windsor Framework an effective mechanism for managing the consequences of Brexit in the region, reflecting a sharp drop from 60% recorded in February 2024.

Researchers responsible for the study noted that the data points to persistent fragmentation surrounding post-Brexit arrangements, alongside mounting anxieties over their economic, political, and constitutional ramifications.

The Windsor Framework represents the post-Brexit treaty agreed between London and Brussels to alleviate trade friction between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

The findings come ahead of next week, when Andy Burnham is scheduled to travel to Brussels for a UK-EU summit to sign new accords on food and energy. The prime minister declared on Thursday that he believes a “win-win” deal can be struck with the EU that is closer to the Brexit that was promised a decade ago.

The Queen’s University study is the 16th publication in the Testing The Temperature project, which examines public sentiment regarding Brexit and the Northern Ireland Protocol/Windsor Framework, directed by Professor David Phinnemore and Professor Katy Hayward.

The research was carried out by LucidTalk between October 23 and 26, gathering a weighted sample of 1,050 participants across Northern Ireland.

Findings show that 77% of respondents consider there to be a clear need for a "serious dialogue" concerning the UK’s long-term relationship with the EU.

However, 69% of participants indicated that there is currently insufficient information available to enable an informed public discussion regarding potential UK-EU options.

Almost two-thirds of those surveyed (63%) believe that Brexit has caused far more disruption than they had anticipated back in 2016.

The survey indicates that 52% of Northern Ireland electors agree the UK ought to rejoin the EU under standard member obligations, whereas 38% remain opposed.

Favourability towards rejoining the EU is highest among SDLP (88%), Sinn Féin (86%) and Alliance (83%) voters.

Opposition is led by TUV voters (92%), followed by DUP voters (84%) and UUP voters (63%).

Additionally, the findings reveal that respondents continue to view the Windsor Framework’s impact on political stability in Northern Ireland as predominantly negative (49%), compared to 28% who view it positively.

A larger proportion of voters also continue to perceive the Framework’s effect on Northern Ireland’s position within the UK internal market as negative (44%) rather than positive (27%).

Prof Phinnemore said: "Voters in Northern Ireland generally welcome the prospect of the UK having a closer relationship with the EU.

"But with the UK Prime Minister keen to have a ‘serious dialogue’ on where next, it is striking how few, 16%, believe that politicians will be able to debate options in an informed manner.

"Most respondents do not regard Brexit as having been good for the UK. It certainly appears that it has done little to improve trust in politics."

Professor Katy Hayward said: "Our findings suggest that opposition to the Windsor Framework is driven less by resistance to practical cooperation with the EU than by concerns about Northern Ireland’s place in the UK.

"Reducing GB-NI trade barriers through UK-EU agreement attracts support even among those who remain firmly pro-Brexit.

"As the UK Government seeks closer cooperation with the EU that brings tangible benefits, it will be hoping pragmatism outweighs Brexit purism among Leave voters."