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Monday, October 19, 2026

Freddy Peralta gets the nod, but one bettor doubts he will go deep into the game

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We don't have much baseball left, and that makes me a little sad. The playoffs are always enjoyable, and this season has been no exception. We are already assured of having a different World Series champion. We are also assured of having one team win for the first time in years, potentially ever. It isn't just that - we will have the two teams in the bottom part of the payroll for baseball. Before we get to the World Series, we have at most two games remaining, and tonight we see the Guardians and Rays play in Game 6.

The Cleveland Guardians are down in the series, and the last time they played in an elimination game during the playoffs before this series, they won three straight. They faced the White Sox in the ALDS and were able to win three straight. In Game 1, they looked completely outmatched by Drew Rasmussen, until they didn't. They hit two solo homers to tie the score, and then the bats broke out in the second half of the game against the Tampa bullpen. They were able to get seven total runs in that game. Ever since that game, it has been a struggle for this team to score.

Cade Smith pitches during a baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Cleveland Guardians pitcher Cade Smith strikes out Tampa Bay Rays hitter Yandy Díaz in the eighth inning of Game 3 of the American League Championship Series in Cleveland on Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)

The Guardians scored seven runs in Game 1. Since then, they've scored just eight runs in four games. Of course, they've gone 1-3 in those games. It isn't like the Rays have been lighting up the scoreboard. Perhaps the pitching for the Guardians is the issue. We don't know who will start for the Guardians tonight. My guess is that there will be some sort of opening pitcher for them, and then they will turn to Foster Griffin or someone else out of the bullpen. It will be an all-hands-on-deck approach.

TAMPA BAY RAYS MOVE ONE WIN FROM WORLD SERIES AFTER DREW RASMUSSEN DOMINATES CLEVELAND GUARDIANS

The Tampa Bay Rays are on the verge of making it back to the World Series. They have never won the World Series, but this would be the third time since 2008. The last time was in 2020. I'm sure most will think they have no chance of winning the World Series against the Brewers, but they have been one of the best teams in baseball all year. The Rays continue to find ways to manufacture runs, and that's what is most encouraging about the team. They don't rely on homers; they draw walks, don't strike out much, and find ways to get from station to station.

Chandler Simpson celebrates after hitting a two-run triple.

Tampa Bay Rays' Chandler Simpson celebrates a two-run triple against the Cleveland Guardians during the fourth inning in Game 3 of an American League Championship Series baseball game in Cleveland, Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Tonight, they send out Freddy Peralta to the mound. This has been a good season for Peralta, at least since he came over from the Mets. His time in New York was a bit of a disaster. Let's just focus on his time with the Rays in September and October. In 39.1 innings, he has allowed a total of four earned runs. He has made three appearances in the postseason. In his first outing against the Yankees, he went 4.2 innings and allowed just one earned run. Against Cleveland, he allowed four hits over six scoreless innings. He was used Saturday to pitch two-thirds of an inning and allowed just one walk in a scoreless appearance.

Members of the Tampa Bay Rays pose for a photo after their victory against the New York Yankees in Game 3 of the American League Division Series at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City on Oct. 7, 2026. (Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

The Rays do have a bit of an advantage with Peralta starting, but I'm not sure he is going to be at his optimal level. I think he goes under 15 outs recorded tonight. Peralta only needed to throw nine pitches, but this is just two days removed from game action. I expect him to only go four innings at most, and that would be 12 outs. I'm backing the under here. The only way he goes 5+ innings is if he is still pitching scoreless and the Guardians aren't threatening. He has been great, but they may save some bullets if they need him for tomorrow.

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