Moody's draft-day targets and values: Murray, Gainwell among top options

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  Eric MoodyAug 18, 2026, 06:43 AM ET

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  Eric Moody is a writer for fantasy football, men's and women's basketball, and sports betting at ESPN. Eric joined ESPN in 2021 after working as a senior fantasy analyst at Pro Football Network. Prior to that, he spent much of his career as a manager at a Fortune 100 financial services company.

Fantasy football draft season is here, and this is when all the offseason work starts to matter. Average draft position (ADP), projections, trends and advanced metrics all factor into my draft strategy, but I don't rely on spreadsheets alone. I also want to see how players are being used and what they're showing on the field.

The list below focuses on players I believe are being drafted too low and have a real chance to outperform their ADP. At the bottom are a handful of deeper targets for the later rounds, such as quarterbacks outside the top 20, running backs beyond the top 30 and wide receivers outside the top 40.

Here are the players I'm targeting by position at every stage of the draft.

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Quarterbacks

Jaxson Dart, New York Giants (ADP: QB7)

Dart averaged 22.6 fantasy points in his 12 starts last season and posted eight top-10 fantasy weeks, tied for fifth most among quarterbacks. He did that despite playing essentially 11.5 of those starts without top receiver Malik Nabers. Dart also averaged 40.6 rushing yards per start, finished third among quarterbacks with 487 rushing yards and scored nine rushing touchdowns. Now Nabers is back, along with new additions Isaiah Likely and Darnell Mooney. If the passing production improves, Dart has a real shot to finish among the top fantasy QBs.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (ADP: QB9)

Prescott finished as the No. 6 quarterback last season while leading a Cowboys offense that ranked top five in pass attempts, passing yards and points per game. He also has one of the league's best receiver duos in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, who combined to score 31.6 fantasy points per game. Prescott doesn't offer much rushing upside, and that's fine because so much of his fantasy value can come through Lamb and Pickens. Lamb can win from the slot and in motion, and Pickens is a true outside and downfield threat. Both can make plays in contested situations and create after the catch, giving Prescott two elite options who can stress defenses in different ways.

Kyler Murray, Minnesota Vikings (ADP: QB17)

Murray finished as a top-12 QB in fantasy points per game in each of his first six seasons before an injury-shortened 2025. Through 87 career games, he's one of just three players with 20,000 passing yards and 3,000 rushing yards, joining Josh Allen and Cam Newton. Now he gets head coach Kevin O'Connell and pass catchers Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. O'Connell has a track record of getting very good fantasy production from less mobile quarterbacks, and Minnesota has added concepts built around Murray's strengths. Murray has everything he needs to return to QB1 territory.

Running backs

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Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers (ADP: RB13)

Hampton averaged 17.3 touches and 15.1 fantasy points per game as a rookie, but he appeared in only nine games. He excelled at generating yards after contact and forcing missed tackles, while catching 91.4% of his 35 targets. Now Mike McDaniel takes over the offense, the interior offensive line should be better and Hampton is projected to handle most of the backfield work. McDaniel helped De'Von Achane finish as a top-five fantasy back in consecutive seasons, so I'm willing to bet on Hampton taking a huge step forward in Year 2.

Breece Hall, New York Jets (ADP: RB15)

Hall has been better than his fantasy finishes the past two seasons. He was RB17 in points per game in 2024 and RB21 last season while the Jets ranked 29th in both yards and scoring. From 2022 to 2025, Hall ranked 15th in rushing yards despite playing for teams with the lowest winning percentage among the top-15 rushers. He has handled at least 266 touches in three straight seasons, is only 25 years old and has already posted an RB6 season in points per game. The Jets' offense should be better with Geno Smith under center, which should help Hall turn that volume into better fantasy production.

Cam Skattebo, New York Giants (ADP: RB18)

Skattebo averaged 19.1 fantasy points across his six full games before his season-ending ankle injury. The rookie piled up 117 touches during that stretch, tied for fourth among running backs, and handled 22 red zone carries. Now John Harbaugh brings his run-heavy philosophy to New York, and new offensive coordinator Matt Nagy has emphasized building around his players' strengths and using the run game to help Dart. The Giants return four O-line starters and added first-rounder Francis Mauigoa. If Skattebo's workload carries over, he should outperform his ADP. It's also worth noting that Derrick Henry finished as the RB7 in 2025 after finishing as the RB3 in his first season with Baltimore.

Kenny Gainwell, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: RB32)

Gainwell has produced when given enough work, as he has averaged 18.6 fantasy points across 10 career games with at least 14 touches. He can contribute as a runner and receiver, and top back Bucky Irving missed seven games last season and struggled with efficiency. Tampa Bay's O-line was also decimated by injuries but has the talent to be much better when healthy. In many drafts, I'm passing on Irving at his price and waiting on Gainwell. The workload in this backfield could be more evenly split than fantasy managers expect.

Wide receivers

Garrett Wilson, New York Jets (ADP: WR13)

Wilson has topped 1,000 yards in each of his first three seasons and finished as the No. 9 receiver in 2024. He also ranked no lower than eighth among wide receivers in targets during those three years. Before injuring his right knee last season, Wilson averaged 9.6 targets and 19.0 fantasy points through five weeks. The Jets finished last in passing yards and 31st in passing touchdowns, so even a modest improvement with Smith matters. Wilson already has the volume, so better QB play could push him back into top-10 territory.

Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders (ADP: WR23)

McLaurin is one of my favorite values at wide receiver. In 2024, he scored 13 touchdowns, finished as the WR7 and topped 1,000 yards for the fifth straight season. Last season was basically lost, with McLaurin missing seven games and QB Jayden Daniels missing 10. New OC David Blough has talked about getting McLaurin 10 targets per game, a significant jump from the 7.3 he has averaged over his career, while also moving him around the formation. New signing Stefon Diggs adds competition, but I'm getting a receiver who has already shown WR1 upside at a back-end WR2 price. That's a discount I'm willing to bet on.

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Michael Pittman Jr., Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP: WR31)

During six seasons in Indianapolis, he got 7.4 targets per game, produced four top-20 fantasy finishes and topped 750 receiving yards in five straight seasons. Now he lands in Mike McCarthy's offense, where his skill set fits the Z/slot role that James Jones once played in Green Bay. Pittman also caught 40 passes against split-safety coverage last season, tied for fourth among wide receivers. With DK Metcalf forcing safeties to respect the deep ball, Pittman should see more room underneath and between the safeties, areas where he already thrives. Add Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback, and Pittman could easily outperform his ADP.

Jakobi Meyers, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: WR41)

Meyers is one of the better late-round values at wide receiver. He has topped 800 receiving yards in five straight seasons -- including his first 1,000-yard campaign in 2024 -- and finished no worse than WR32 during that span. After arriving in Jacksonville midseason, Meyers drew 61 targets in nine games while quickly earning quarterback Trevor Lawrence's trust with his route running, feel for coverage and reliable hands. Now he gets a full offseason with Lawrence. Meyers, Brian Thomas Jr. and Parker Washington are all projected for 100-plus targets, yet Meyers is going a round later than the others. I'd rather wait and take the discount.

Tight end

Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland Browns (ADP: TE7)

Fannin finished as the No. 6 tight end last season as a rookie, catching 72 passes for 731 yards and six touchdowns while leading the Browns in targets, receptions, yards and receiving touchdowns. In fact, his 107 targets ranked eighth all time by a rookie tight end. David Njoku departed in the offseason, leaving Fannin alone atop the depth chart. New head coach Todd Monken has consistently featured tight ends, from Brock Bowers at Georgia to Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely with the Baltimore Ravens. Fannin has already produced in a bad offense, and his role could be even bigger in Year 2, regardless of who's under center for the Browns.

Five late-round targets

Blake Corum, RB, Los Angeles Rams (RB40)

Corum averaged an impressive 5.1 yards per carry on 145 attempts last season behind a Rams O-line that finished second in run block win rate and should remain one of the league's best units in 2026. Kyren Williams is projected to lead the backfield in touches, but Sean McVay's offense gives Corum plenty of appeal. The Rams led the league in total yards and points last season, and Williams and Corum can fill similar roles. If Williams were to miss time, Corum would immediately become a plug-and-play RB1.

Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts (WR44)

Downs is one of my favorite late-round targets after a disappointing 2025. Pittman's departure leaves 111 targets behind, giving Downs a clear path toward the volume he saw in 2024, when he caught 72 passes for 803 yards and five touchdowns on 107 targets. Downs separates well, works effectively from the slot and gives the quarterback a reliable underneath option. The touchdown ceiling might be limited, but Downs is projected for 110 targets and looks like a nice value at his current ADP.

Chris Godwin Jr., WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (WR53)

Godwin averaged 19.7 fantasy points per game before a severe left ankle injury ended his 2024 season and required two surgeries. He returned in Week 4 last season, suffered a fibula injury the following week, missed five games and didn't regain a full workload until later in the season. Now healthy, Godwin should return to the slot, where he ran 62% of his routes during that abbreviated 2024. New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson comes from the same Sean McVay coaching tree as former Bucs OC Liam Coen, and Mike Evans' departure opens up additional targets. Only Emeka Egbuka is projected for more.

Jalen Coker, WR, Carolina Panthers (WR58)

The Panthers showed their confidence in Coker by signing him to a three-year extension and not adding another notable wide receiver this offseason. A quadriceps injury cost him six games last season, but Coker quickly became one of Bryce Young's trusted targets. From Week 8 through the playoffs, he played 73% of the snaps and handled a 17.8% target share. Coker also flashed his upside in the wild-card round with nine receptions for 134 yards and a touchdown. He's a nice value late in the proceedings.

Cam Ward, QB, Tennessee Titans (QB26)

Ward is someone I'm targeting as my QB3 in superflex formats. He struggled early as a rookie but improved after Tennessee's Week 10 bye, throwing 10 touchdowns to just one interception. Ward averaged 15.5 fantasy points over his final four full starts and ranked eighth in pass attempts despite taking a league-high 55 sacks. Tennessee upgraded his situation by hiring Brian Daboll as the OC, adding help along the O-line, signing Wan'Dale Robinson and drafting Carnell Tate fourth overall. The pieces are in place for a Year 2 breakout.