NFL Week 3 picks: Our experts face off on Falcons at Packers, Ravens vs. Cowboys and more

Week 3 of the NFL season is here, and some teams are already in trouble. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts are staring down the barrel of an 0-3 start, and a couple of those head coaches could be on the hot seat. The Texans and Colts face off this Sunday in Indy, so that will be one to watch!

Elsewhere in the NFL, Aaron Rodgers opens up division play against the Cincinnati Bengals, Kyler Murray returns to the lineup to face the Buccaneers, Lamar Jackson takes on Dak Prescott in Rio de Janeiro and the Los Angeles Rams will play the Denver Broncos on "Sunday Night Football." Which teams should you pick in Week 3, and which should you fade? CBS Sports writers Jordan Dajani and Jared Dubin are here to break down the biggest games of the weekend. For clarity, lines for these selections were taken on Sept. 23 over at DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-5.5) (TNF)

Dajani (Packers -5.5): The Atlanta Falcons will get Michael Penix Jr. back this week, and while I'm sure the offense will improve with the upgrade at quarterback, I'm not sure I can back them in this spot. The Packers are making their home debut in primetime at a rowdy Lambeau Field, and they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home primetime games when favored by at least five points, according to CBS Sports Research. I still have major concerns about this Packers team that is down their best offensive player and defensive player while working through some serious issues on the offensive line, but this is a solid bounce-back spot against the team that has been the worst in the NFL through two weeks.

Prediction: Packers 24, Falcons 17

Dubin (Packers -5.5): I can't rightly pick the Falcons given the way they have looked so far this season. I know they're getting an upgrade at quarterback with Michael Penix Jr. replacing whatever Cooper Rush was doing out there, but it's not like their defense has been good, either. And now they have injury issues on that side of the ball with A.J. Terrell out. The only thing stopping me from predicting a Packers blowout is that they have issues of their own. Micah Parsons remains out. Jayden Reed is out. Zach Bako-Bewele is out. Still, they should have enough to win this one fairly comfortably.

Prediction: Packers 23, Falcons 13

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Dajani (Bengals -3.5): A battle between two teams trending in opposite directions. The Pittsburgh Steelers are averaging the fewest points per game (11.5) and yards per game (249.5) through two games in Aaron Rodgers' career, while the Bengals defense is reborn, and tied for eighth in scoring defense after ranking 30th last season. In Week 1, Cincinnati recovered four fumbles. In Week 2, they held C.J. Stroud and the Texans out of the end zone altogether. The Steelers on the other hand have been abysmal on the offensive side of the ball, ranking bottom three in not just total offense and scoring offense, but yards per play (3.8) and third-down percentage (20%) as well. Rodgers is 0/11 on deep balls this season, including 0/6 to droppin' DK Metcalf. 

The Bengals haven't defeated the Steelers by at least four points since 2022, but I think it happens on Sunday.

Prediction: Bengals 23, Steelers 16

Dubin (Bengals -3.5): Pittsburgh's offense is just too broken for me to be comfortable taking the Steelers here. As Dajani mentioned, they are averaging just 11.5 points and 249.5 yards per game. Aaron Rodgers looks done. Both of their running backs are dealing with injuries. So is Michael Pittman Jr. The Steelers are still good defensively, as we've seen so far, but it's actually kind of hard to know how much stock to put into performances against the Cooper Rush-led Steelers and the A.J. Brown-less Patriots. Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are a different animal to deal with.

Prediction: Bengals 24, Steelers 10

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)

Dajani (Jaguars -3): Out of all the games on this list, Patriots at Jaguars may be the toughest one for me to pick. Let me explain...

If we were power-ranking all the teams in the NFL, the Jaguars are ahead of the Patriots right now. However, this game features a pretty interesting matchup which I think could rule the day. Jacksonville suffered a close loss to the Broncos last week, in which Denver dominated the Jags' offensive line. The Patriots dominated the Steelers' offensive line last week in their victory, and this Mike Vrabel unit has been an underrated storyline through two weeks. New England actually ranks No. 1 in points per game allowed (8.0), third down (4/24) and red zone (0/3). I could take the points here and hope Drake Maye shows up, or I could trust in what appears to be the best team in the AFC South at home.

Prediction: Jaguars 24, Patriots 20

Dubin (Jaguars -3): Jacksonville looked for a while like it was going to take care of the Broncos fairly easily after blowing out the Browns in Week 1. Obviously, things changed following a Trevor Lawrence interception in the third quarter and they ended up losing. But the Patriots haven't looked particularly good at any point so far this season. The Jaguars' offensive has at least shown that it has an ability to be efficient and explosive at times. I think they rediscover some of that here and take care of the Patriots at home.

Prediction: Jaguars 23, Patriots 17

Houston Texans (-3) at Indianapolis Colts

Dajani (Texans -3): Am I worried that the Texans have started 0-2? Not really. They had to play Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. Plus, DeMeco Ryans has started 0-2 in three out of his four seasons as head coach! Par for the course. Now, I don't want to overlook the Texans' struggles on both sides of the ball. This supposedly elite defense has allowed 84 points over the past three games, including playoffs, which is the most in a three-game span under coach Ryans, and the offense didn't score a single touchdown last week vs. the Bengals. Not having Nico Collins or Tank Dell really hurts.

As for the Colts, they will be without a star wideout as well in Alec Pierce. I was impressed with how Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor and Josh Downs kept up with the Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday night, but I couldn't get over how bad this defense was. The Colts are just the third team in NFL history to allow 500 yards of total offense in each of their first two games. Indy ranks dead last in total defense, passing defense and scoring defense. I'm taking the Texans to finally register that first win on Sunday. Houston is 13-1 SU and 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 road divisional games.

Prediction: Texans 27, Colts 21

Dubin (Texans -3): I hate to keep parroting what Dajani says, but boy does this Indianapolis defense scare me -- and not at all in a good way. The Colts have gotten the ball run down their throats in each of the first two games of this season, and they also got lit up through the air by Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. The Texans don't have the same offensive talent as either the Ravens or Chiefs, especially if Nico Collins is out again, but they do have the defense to shut down Indy's offense and make this game a slog. I could see a low-scoring game where the Texans are just able to be more efficient than the Colts because the Indianapolis defense just doesn't have the horses (sorry) to compete.

Prediction: Texans 20, Colts 16

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Dajani (Buccaneers +1.5): The Minnesota Vikings are riding high at 2-0, and are now favored to win the NFC North! They defeated an overrated Packers team in Week 1 with Carson Wentz, and then got some help from the football weather gods in Chicago. We were robbed of what could have been a really fun matchup between Caleb Williams and Brian Flores. Kyler Murray is expected to make his return to the lineup after suffering a concussion very early in his first start with the Vikings, and I'm not sure what to expect from him. Wentz had the benefit of working in Kevin O'Connell's system last year. Murray really hasn't played in this kind of offense before.

The Buccaneers have been one of the biggest disappointments of the season, and Baker Mayfield has accounted for as many touchdowns as turnovers in his past 13 starts dating back to last year. Todd Bowles' defense made Deshaun Watson look like a starting quarterback last week thanks to a lackluster pass-rush paired with blown coverages, but I'm going to call the upset here in Week 3 that finally gets Tampa Bay into the win column. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in 11 straight games, which is tied for the longest such streak since 1970. The streak is snapped this week. 

Prediction: Buccaneers 21, Vikings 20

Dubin (Vikings -1.5): I am very worried about Tampa on both sides of the ball. The Buccaneers just got lit up by Deshaun Watson. That is next-level embarrassing. The Vikings should be able to move the ball with relative ease in Kyler Murray's return game, even with the questions about how he fits in Kevin O'Connell's offense. And then the idea that Baker Mayfield is going to bounce back against a Brian Flores defense just doesn't pass muster to me. We've seen what this defense has done to Jordan Love and Caleb Williams in the first two weeks. I expect a similar level of performance from Tampa. 

Prediction: Vikings 23, Buccaneers 17

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)

Dajani (Cowboys +3.5): International games aren't everyone's favorite, but consider that South American NFL games are averaging 55.5 points and 782.5 total yards! I'm expecting some points in this one, but I want to know where those points are coming from. The Ravens' WR1 Zay Flowers exploded for 150 yards and a touchdown in the season opener vs. the Colts before suffering a hamstring injury. If he returns this week, that 3.5 line is warranted. But if he sits out again, I'm not sure. The Cowboys potentially exorcised some demons from the New York Giants loss in Week 1 by dropping 37 points on the hapless Washington Commanders. Dak Prescott threw for 279 yards and four touchdowns, while CeeDee Lamb starred with 153 yards receiving and two of those touchdowns. In a fun shootout, give me the points with the underdog. 

Prediction: Ravens 33, Cowboys 30

Dubin (Ravens -3.5): I will probably flip this prediction if Zay Flowers doesn't suit up for Baltimore. Flowers didn't practice on Wednesday, and we saw both in the second half against the Colts and then against the Saints just how important he is to the offense. The Cowboys have been both efficient and explosive offensively so far this season, and we've seen that the Ravens can still be beaten on defense early in the Jesse Minter era. Tyler Shough went off against them in the second half. I think Dak Prescott can do the same. If Flowers suits up, I think it won't be quite enough. If he doesn't, then I think the Cowboys can pull this one out in Brazil.

Prediction: Ravens 31, Cowboys 27

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at Denver Broncos (SNF)

Dajani (Broncos +2.5): The Broncos got back on track in Week 2 with a win over the Jaguars, while the Rams bounced back from the atrocity in Australia with a home victory against the Giants. However, with Jaxson Dart going down in the first quarter, do we really know if the Rams bounced back? I mean I had the Rams, but it would have been interesting to see how that game would have panned out had Dart remained healthy. 

While it took longer than expected, Bo Nix finally found a rhythm in the passing game with new weapon Jaylen Waddle, who caught eight passes for a game-high 138 yards last week. The Broncos offensive line did a fantastic job negating the Jaguars pass-rush, while on the flip side, the Broncos defensive front dominated the Jaguars offensive line. With the game being at Mile High in prime time, give me the Broncos in an upset. Plus, Nix has this weird thing when it comes to beating teams in the NFC.

Bo Nix's last nine games vs. NFC opponents

Category	Stat
W-L	9-0
Total TDs to turnovers	23-2
Passer rating	104.2

Prediction: Broncos 26, Rams 24

Dubin (Rams -2.5): The Rams looked much more like the Rams in their Monday night destruction of the Giants. Was some of that about the Giants losing Jaxson Dart on the first drive of the game? Absolutely. But a lot of it was just L.A. getting back to doing what it does best on the other side of the ball -- even with Puka Nacua sitting on the sideline. Denver's defense was better against the Jaguars than it was against the Chiefs (it would be hard to be worse), but I think the Rams pose a different level of challenge than do the Jags. And then it's not like Denver's offense has been a world-beater so far. And with JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey potentially out, I don't know that the Broncos will be much better here.

Prediction: Rams 24, Broncos 17

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Chicago Bears (MNF)

Dajani (Eagles -4.5): It appears this matchup will be the Eagles defense vs. Case Keenum, as Caleb Williams is sidelined with a hamstring strain, and Tyson Bagent is in the concussion protocol. It was surprising that the Eagles needed a game-winning drive to defeat the lowly Tennessee Titans in the most "home" away game you'll ever see, but Jalen Hurts should get this team to 3-0 and cover the spread for the first time all year. Philly is 14-6 in primetime games over the last five seasons, which is good for third-best in the NFL.

Prediction: Eagles 21, Bears 13

Dubin (Eagles -4.5): The Bears could very well be starting Case Keenum here. Will the Eagles find a way to somehow make this game an ugly win? Probably. That's just what they do. But they're still going to win it.