Victorian hot seats: Labor holds this seat with a thick margin. But there are now two key differences

Vanessa Galea is the kind of voter Labor is most worried about.

Though she describes herself as not a “political person”, she has historically seen the party as “a voice for the hard workers, for people that are maybe blue-collar”, like her father, who worked in a factory.

Labor has long relied on rusted-on working-class voters like Galea to form a vast red wall of electorates across Melbourne’s west. In seats like Sydenham, people have always voted Labor – and Labor has always won.

“I’m the type of person that finds change a bit difficult,” Galea says, It’s why I’ve kind of gone the way I’ve gone for years on end.”

Hello, I’m Annika Smethurst, Victorian Affairs Editor at The Age.

For most of the past 15 years, I’ve covered state and federal politics – including three state elections, four federal elections and about 15 by-elections (and about 14 leadership changes).

As a political journalist, I’ve reported from Washington DC to Whyalla. But this election, I will be covering the contest in Hawthorn.

Once a so-called jewel in the Liberal Party’s crown, this inner-eastern seat has become less reliable in recent years thanks to its socially progressive and highly educated population. The success of the so-called teal independent movement, and Monique Ryan unseating then-treasurer Josh Frydenberg at a federal level in Kooyong (a seat which encompasses all of Hawthorn), hasn’t helped matters.

G’day readers, I’m Angelica Snowden. Usually, I’m a senior reporter within The Age’s city team, where I cover council issues, planning and development and other major happenings across the city of Melbourne. But for the next month, I’m stoked to say that I’ll be on the ground in Victoria’s north-east.

The regional electorate of Shepparton is arguably the seat to watch in 2026. Spanning 3289 square kilometres, it’s an economic powerhouse thanks to booming manufacturing and agricultural industries and a significant migrant population.

While it has historically been a Nationals stronghold, independent Suzanna Sheed nabbed the seat from the Nationals in 2014 and retained it in 2018. But by 2022, the Nats were back with former mayor Kim O’Keeffe reclaiming Shepparton with a margin of 24 per cent. Just four years later, though, O’Keeffe has announced she will retire, making the field is once again open to outsiders.

“I mean, have you seen how many candidates are running?” one of them asks me.

It’s like a Melbourne Cup field, I say.

They shake their head. “It’s going to be an absolute sea.”

A crowded field of colourful candidates. A level of unbottled suburban fury. Collapsing infrastructure and looming data centres, and a genuine three-way contest. Welcome to Sydenham.

Hey, I’m Bridget McArthur, The Age’s sports affairs reporter. For the next month, I’m swapping the politics of sport for the sport of politics – and in Ringwood, it’s game on.

Though it was among the red wave of electorates that Labor picked up in 2018, the Liberal Party is hungry to win back its lost territory in Melbourne’s outer east, including this historically centre-right leaning seat.

Compared to neighbouring electorates, Ringwood should have been one of the seats Labor was least anxious about holding on to. Four years ago, it pocketed a comfortable 7.5 per cent two-party preferred margin thanks to Will Fowles.

With the writs issued, the petrol tanks of the political buses full, and the sausage sizzles set for Saturday, November 28, the starting gun for the state election has officially been fired.

Welcome to our hot seats blog, where over the next month we will offer in-depth coverage on the issues looming large in Victorian voters’ minds.

As we head into what many believe could be an unprecedented race for Victoria, The Age will be paying special attention to four electorates across the state – Hawthorn, Ringwood, Sydenham and Shepparton.

Across these seats, our reporters will be on the ground to deep dive into the candidates and their policies, take a pulse check on how Victorians are feeling as they head into the polling booth, and report on what all of this means for the shape of our next state parliament.

Stay tuned to meet the team, learn more about the major issues within these electorates, and why we chose them for our 2026 hot seats.