Building new ties post-US elections

The Democratic Party’s sweeping victory in the US midterm elections, in which it secured control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, has drawn attention to the setbacks facing US President Donald Trump, the possibility of interactions between Chinese, US and Russian leaders at the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting this month and whether Taiwan faces new security risks.

However, viewing the election results solely through the lens of Trump’s shifting power dynamics risks overlooking three key opportunities that Taiwan could seize.

First, Taiwan should deepen industrial cooperation with US state governments. The Democrats’ gubernatorial victories in traditionally Republican strongholds such as Texas have raised concerns that investment by Taiwan’s artificial intelligence (AI) industry could face obstacles. Texas governor-elect Gina Hinojosa has called for a pause on the development of large-scale AI data centers, but her opposition is not directed at foreign investment. Rather, she has raised concerns about companies consuming excessive amounts of electricity and water while shifting infrastructure costs onto local residents. There is no evidence that suggests she opposes investment by Taiwanese firms. Taiwan should not view a change in party leadership at the state level as a hurdle. Instead, it should proactively engage with incoming administrations and demonstrate how Taiwanese companies can foster mutually beneficial outcomes through energy efficiency and supply chain cooperation.

Second, Taiwan should rebuild its network of supporters in the US Congress. This election cycle has seen the departure of several lawmakers in the US Congressional Taiwan Caucus, including Republican senators Thom Tillis and Susan Collins. However, this does not mean that the new Congress would be less supportive of Taiwan. Ohio’s newly elected senator, Sherrod Brown, was a founding co-chair of the Congressional Taiwan Caucus. US Representative Chris Papas, who has been elected senator, has supported changing the name of Taiwan’s representative office in the US. The arrival of these people in the Senate presents Taiwan with new opportunities for cooperation. Newly elected lawmakers whose positions remain unclear, such as Texas senator-elect James Talarico, should be primary targets for proactive engagement. Bipartisan support does not form on its own; it is the product of sustained relationship building.

Perhaps most importantly, Taiwan should rethink the risks posed by US-China negotiations. Some worry that Trump’s electoral setback could embolden Beijing to pressure him into making concessions on Taiwan. However, this overlooks the shift in the balance of power in Congress. Even if Trump were eager to secure a diplomatic win, any attempt by Beijing to influence US policy toward Taiwan through a deal between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) would face congressional investigations, budget scrutiny and political criticism under the new Congress. Beijing’s room to influence Taiwan-related policy by bypassing Congress would therefore be more limited.

Of course, congressional checks and balances do not mean that Trump has lost his authority over foreign policy, nor do they guarantee that Taiwan faces no risks. However, this election cycle serves as a reminder that US politics is not confined to the White House. Congress and state governments also play a role, along with a range of competing policy interests.

Taiwan should proactively engage with the US’ new political structure to expand cooperation, mitigate risks and gain greater leverage amid this changing landscape.

Wang Hung-jen is a professor in National Cheng Kung University’s Department of Political Science.