MaxLinear forecasts Q4 2026 revenue of $240M-$260M while raising 2026 optical data center outlook to $250M-$270M

• "In Q3, overall revenue grew 72% year-on-year, driven by accelerating adoption of our optical PAM4 products" (Co-Founder, Chairman, CEO & President Kishore Seendripu), and "Infrastructure as a category grew 210% year-on-year and which is now larger than the rest of our revenue categories combined" (CEO Seendripu).
• "We are raising our 2026 optical data center revenue outlook to $250 million to $270 million" (CEO Seendripu), adding that "with strong visibility in bookings extending beyond 2027, we expect another significant step-up in revenue next year" (CEO Seendripu).
• "Keystone, our 5-nanometer CMOS 100 gigabit per lane PAM4 SerDes family continues to ramp rapidly in high-volume production across multiple hyperscalers" (CEO Seendripu), while "qualification programs are advancing toward expected production deployments in 2027" for "Rushmore-based 200 gigabit per lane PAM4, 1.6 terabit architectures" (CEO Seendripu).
• "We expect initial Washington and Annapurna revenues in 2027, followed by a stronger volume ramp in 2028" (CEO Seendripu), and "we expect first deployments of this inter-data center control plane solution to start in 2027" for the "XGS-PON hyperscale data center design win" (CEO Seendripu).
• "Total revenue for the third quarter was $218.1 million" (CFO & Chief Corporate Strategy Officer Steven Litchfield), including "Infrastructure revenue... approximately $125 million" and "Broadband revenue... approximately $53 million" (CFO Litchfield).
• "GAAP diluted EPS for Q3 2026 was $0.30 per share. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $0.62 per share" (CFO Litchfield), and "we have amended our existing credit agreement to increase the amounts available under the revolving credit facility by $70 million to $200 million" (CFO Litchfield).

Outlook

• "We currently expect revenue in the fourth quarter of 2026 to be between $240 million and $260 million" (CFO Litchfield), and "we expect strong growth in infrastructure driven by data center optical interconnects" (CFO Litchfield).
• "We expect broadband and connectivity end markets to be down seasonally" (CFO Litchfield), while "industrial multi-market end market is expected to be up" (CFO Litchfield).
• "We expect fourth quarter GAAP gross margin to be approximately 58% to 61% and non-GAAP gross margin to be in the range of 59% and 62% of revenue" (CFO Litchfield).
• "We expect Q4 2026 GAAP operating expenses to be in the range of $96 million to $101 million" and "non-GAAP operating expenses to be in the range of $65 million to $70 million" (CFO Litchfield).
• Change vs. prior quarter call: "We currently expect revenue in the third quarter of '26 to be between $210 million and $220 million" (CFO Litchfield, Q2 call) shifted to Q4 guidance of "$240 million" to "$260 million" (CFO Litchfield, Q3 call), alongside a higher 2026 optical outlook (see QoQ section).

Financial Results

• "Total revenue for the third quarter was $218.1 million, up 29% from $168.8 million in the previous quarter and up 72% from $126.5 million in the third quarter of 2025" (CFO Litchfield).
• "GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin for the third quarter were 58.7% and 60% of revenue" (CFO Litchfield), and "the delta between GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin... was primarily driven by $2.5 million of acquisition-related intangible asset amortization" (CFO Litchfield).
• "Third quarter GAAP operating expenses were $97.8 million and non-GAAP operating expenses were $66.5 million" (CFO Litchfield), with the delta "primarily due to stock-based compensation and performance-based equity accruals of $28.8 million combined" (CFO Litchfield).
• "GAAP operating margin for Q3 2026 was 13.9% and non-GAAP operating margin in Q3 was 29.5% of net revenue" (CFO Litchfield).
• "In Q3, net cash flow was used in operating activities was approximately $13.6 million" (CFO Litchfield), and "we exited Q3 of 2026 with approximately $109.9 million in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash" (CFO Litchfield).

Q&A

• Tore Svanberg, Stifel: asked if 2027 optical DSP could be "$400 million plus" and about 800G vs. 1.6T mix; CFO Litchfield: "I don't think we're planning to give guidance in the out year today" and "I would expect to see us outgrow the market in 2027."
• Ananda Baruah, Loop Capital Markets: asked for U.S. hyperscaler contribution before 1.6T and timing; CEO Seendripu: "we have never broken down that revenue" and said "1.6 terabit revenues start ramping with initial revenues actually in early '27 and a stronger ramp in the second half."
• Christopher Rolland, Susquehanna: asked about potential over-ordering; CEO Seendripu: "I don't think there's any double ordering" and said the supply chain is "very disciplined on 'you'll only get what you need now' sort of behavior."
• Quinn Bolton, Needham: asked if more prepayments are needed for 2027; CFO Litchfield: "I expect prepaids to continue to go up from here" and said revolver expansion helps "capture all of that upside capacity."
• Tore Svanberg, Stifel: pressed on 1.6T shifting earlier than last quarter; CEO Seendripu: "there's an initial design win that will start shipping in the first half" and "we also have commitments both for DSP and TIA in these design wins."
• Cody Acree, StoneX: asked about qualification bottlenecks; CEO Seendripu: "The quals has got nothing to do with wafer supply" and said the constraint is internal prioritization across multiple module makers and data center qualification sequences.

Sentiment Analysis

• Analysts: slightly positive, with repeated growth/run-rate framing and long-range scaling questions such as "is $400 million plus a good number?" (Tore Svanberg, Stifel) and pushing on market-sizing logic (Timothy Savageaux, Northland).
• Management: positive in prepared remarks and confident in Q&A, using phrases like "we believe MaxLinear is in the early innings of a multiyear AI-driven growth cycle" (CEO Seendripu) and "I feel very confident we're outgrowing the market" (CFO Litchfield), while declining certain specifics: "we're not competing across product lines for the same technology node" (CEO Seendripu) and "we can't comment on that" (CEO Seendripu) when pressed on 2030 market math.
• Versus prior quarter: management’s tone stayed consistently upbeat, but Q3 added more explicit timing pulls ("first half" 2027 for initial 1.6T) and more direct supply-constraint discussion (fab capacity and qualification resources) than the Q2 call.

Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison

• Optical outlook raised again: "we are once again raising our expectations for 2026 optical data center revenue to be between $210 million to $230 million" (CEO Seendripu, Q2 call) became "$250 million to $270 million" (CEO Seendripu, Q3 call).
• 1.6T timing language moved earlier: Q2 described 2027 as "some initial revenue ramp starting in '27" and "somewhere in the second half of the year" (CEO Seendripu, Q2 call), while Q3 said "an initial design win that will start shipping in the first half" and the "second half" is set up for a stronger ramp (CEO Seendripu, Q3 call).
• Financial trajectory stepped up sequentially: Q2 "Total revenue... $168.8 million" (CFO Litchfield, Q2 call) to Q3 "$218.1 million" (CFO Litchfield, Q3 call), with Q3 also highlighting a larger infrastructure contribution (Q2 "approximately $85 million" vs. Q3 "approximately $125 million," both CFO Litchfield).
• Capital and liquidity actions became more prominent: Q3 added the revolver expansion to "$200 million" (CFO Litchfield), a topic not present in the Q2 call.

Risks and Concerns

• Supply capacity risk in advanced nodes: "we are really constrained by foundries on the DSP supply" (CEO Seendripu), while also stating "the optic supply is easing" (CEO Seendripu).
• Execution bottlenecks in customer qualification: management cited internal limits, saying "we are bottlenecked by our own ability to support multiple quals simultaneously" (CEO Seendripu).
• Segment seasonality: "We expect broadband and connectivity end markets to be down seasonally" in Q4 (CFO Litchfield), while still stating "we do expect to see growth in 2027" for broadband (CFO Litchfield).

Final Takeaway

Management described Q3 as a step-change quarter led by AI data center infrastructure, highlighted by $218.1 million in revenue and a raised 2026 optical data center outlook of $250 million to $270 million. Leadership emphasized Keystone’s high-volume hyperscaler ramp and positioned Rushmore 1.6T, along with attach products like Washington TIA and Annapurna, as the next wave with initial 2027 revenues and stronger 2028 ramps, while acknowledging constraints from foundry DSP supply and the company’s own qualification bandwidth. For Q4, management guided revenue of $240 million to $260 million with infrastructure strength offsetting seasonal broadband/connectivity softness, and highlighted additional liquidity via an expanded $200 million revolver to support capacity and growth opportunities.

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