ANALYSIS: Where is Paul Mashatile, and does the vanishing deputy act threaten his presidential ambitions?

Two weeks ago, the Sunday World newspaper published a story suggesting that Deputy President Paul Mashatile was ill. News24 followed that up a day later.

The day after that, Mashatile’s office released a statement saying he was recovering from minor surgery and that his office was still operating in his absence. No information was given about his condition or the reason for the surgery.

In democratic politics, there can be no substitute for the public appearance. There is a reason why so many of our politicians try to spend a lot of time speaking in public, whether it be public speeches, broadcast interviews or even on their own social media feeds.

Before an election this is all the more important. 

As ANC leaders are spreading out in many parts of the country, you would expect the deputy leader of the party to be more visible than usual.

Instead, there is no public evidence of Mashatile doing any public campaigning at all.

Perhaps more worryingly, there is also no public evidence of any planned events which involve him.

While this situation could change, it appears that this election campaign might well go ahead with no involvement from him.

This is obviously important for his party. But it is far more important for his personal agenda.

Ambition silenced

The generally assumed presumption has been that Mashatile is ambitious and that he does want to take over from President Cyril Ramaphosa.

This electoral campaign could be the perfect opportunity for him to show his dedication to the ANC just 14 months before ANC delegates vote for the party’s top job.

Nothing would be easier than just criss-crossing the country as the party’s campaigner-in-chief. It would show those most likely to be voting delegates at the ANC’s conference that he is a contender for president.

It would also be a very good opportunity for him to meet ANC activists across the entire country, as part of building a national coalition, which would be a huge opportunity for a leader known to have a stronghold in just one province (Gauteng).

Mashatile could use the campaign to tell both ANC members and South Africans what he stands for. Every speaking engagement would be a chance to clearly explain his ideology and where he believes the country should go.

Yes, he would also face questions, from both voters and journalists, about the future direction of the party and the country. But he would also be able to hone the answers to those questions in a way that could provide him with a crisp message ahead of December 2027.

However, there is no public evidence that any of this will happen. Instead is the statement about his minor surgery.

Silence and speculation

In any democracy the health of a political leader has political power.

It is true that there are many examples of leaders who have been able to remain in power while being ill, or indisposed, or simply living with a very debilitating condition. But that is completely different from actually getting into the top political job in the first place.

For Mashatile to prevail in December next year, he must convince ANC delegates, and the people who direct them, that he is capable of doing the job.

Campaigning, whether publicly or behind closed doors, requires energy and action. It means late nights and early mornings and a huge amount of travel.

Anyone who is not feeling 100% will not be up to that kind of schedule. And any competitor who does feel up to it will immediately have a huge advantage.

The other problem for Mashatile is the insidious nature of human speculation. Virtually nothing is known about his condition.

At the end of June he returned from a trip to China. That is a flight that is usually at least 16 hours, but can be up to 20, a gruelling trip no matter how you fly.

In the middle of June, he spoke at a water event in KwaZulu-Natal. Then, two weeks ago, came the first report that he was ill.

While his office has said he is recovering from “minor surgery” there has been no public sign of the man himself.

This is astonishing.

It would be incredibly easy for Mashatile to take part in a brief video interview with a friendly podcaster. Just a quick appearance would put to bed any speculation.

Even if that were not possible for whatever reason, it would be even easier to publish a photograph of Mashatile reading a copy of a recent daily newspaper, if just to establish what kidnappers might call “proof of life”.

Instead, silence.

Clearly, this is not a minor problem caused by an old football injury to his left ankle.  As a result, the speculation is likely to grow increasingly wild.

It is also likely to put other ANC leaders in a difficult position. 

If Mashatile does not appear in public soon this will start to overshadow the ANC’s election campaign (when it is not being defined by the Water Affairs Minister’s vocabulary…).

Every time a leader appears in public they will be asked about Mashatile’s health.

While some may be his allies, others may not. And they could well use the opportunity to answer the question in a way that leads to even more speculation.

Of course, this could all change.

Mashatile could well appear in public today, kicking a soccer ball and talking about coalitions and eThekwini. If he doesn’t, the speculation will only grow more intense.

And if he fails to appear throughout the election campaign, all the way up until the start of November, that might well prove fatal to his hopes of being president. DM