Debt concern looms large for voters, as Carroll struggles to break through

A mountain of state debt stands between Labor and a historic fourth term in office, with voters increasingly pessimistic about Victoria’s outlook and concerned about the financial burden of the Suburban Rail Loop.

A Resolve Political Monitor survey of Victorian respondents conducted last week lays bare the challenge before Ben Carroll, who since becoming premier seven weeks ago, has been unable to lift his own standing as preferred premier or Labor’s primary support above an election-losing 25 per cent.

Opposition Leader Jess Wilson, however, has nudged the Coalition’s primary support to a five-month high of 28 per cent, while support for One Nation held steady at 23 per cent.

Wilson also opened a sizeable gap as Victoria’s most popular political leader, with 28 per cent of respondents preferring her as premier compared to 20 per cent for Carroll, and 8 per cent for One Nation leader Warren Pickering.

Pickering, despite revelations of his previous drug use, drink-driving and dysfunctional family life, received a net-positive approval rating in the survey.

While changes to headline figures since the last RPM was conducted in August are within the poll’s margin for error, the survey provides a timely snapshot of the prevailing public mood as Victoria enters an unpredictable campaign season ahead of the election on November 28.

With Westpac economists pricing in an 83 per cent chance of another cash rate hike when the Reserve Bank of Australia meets later this month, and Victoria’s net debt climbing towards $200 billion, only 19 per cent of respondents said they expect the state’s outlook to get better, while 44 per cent said they expect it will get worse.

Anxiety about debt levels is being felt across Australia, with a national Resolve survey conducted over the same period finding that 74 per cent of respondents were concerned about the federal government’s $1 trillion of accumulated debt.

But at a state level, Victorians are more worried than people in other states, with 72 per cent expressing concern compared to 67 per cent in NSW and 63 per cent in Queensland, where the government’s pre-Olympic Games infrastructure binge this week triggered a credit downgrade from S&P Global.

“All the evidence is that debt and deficit are starting to figure in people’s vote decisions again,” Resolve founder Jim Reed said. “They’re looking at how much new announcements are going to cost, and if taxes are going up or down as a result.”

Reed said the sentiment in Victoria signalled a return to pre-crisis politics.

“This used to be the default before COVID,” he said. “Kevin Rudd was elected nearly 20 years ago partly because he positioned himself as more economically conservative than John Howard. But then spending lost all meaning during the Global Financial Crisis and COVID.

“People are looking for restraint – smart decisions that get the economy moving, rather than big spending ones that will further weigh it down.”

Voter concern about government spending was evident in responses to survey questions about two very different government policies – its commitment to complete the first section of the Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) currently under construction for $33.3 billion, and a $230 million campaign promise to open 10 walk-in dental clinics to provide free care.

When given a choice to pause the state’s largest infrastructure project or push ahead, 49 per cent of respondents called for the SRL to be put on ice, while 27 per cent urged the government to keep tunnelling.

When asked about the government’s plan to provide free dental check-ups and fillings to up to 100,000 people a year via suburban and regional clinics, 35 per cent of respondents backed the policy, while 43 per cent said it was not worth the additional debt and should be scrapped.

The hardening of public concern about government debt follows a concerted effort by the Coalition to link the cost of servicing debt with higher taxes and money that could otherwise be spent on public services.

“Victorians are concerned about this because they know it is costing them more than a million dollars every single hour just to service that debt,” Jess Wilson said on Monday. “That’s money that isn’t going into our schools, into our hospitals, into fixing our roads, and that’s why we’ve made disciplined decisions.”

When asked whether the government would resist big spending promises, the premier vowed to treat taxpayer dollars with respect.

“That’s why I’ve already put a stop to unnecessary spending on the SRL and in the public service, with more savings to come,” Carroll said.

“The polls confirm that the Liberals and One Nation will have to govern together. The real risk to our economy is a Liberal One Nation coalition making $40 billion in cuts to frontline services that will cripple our hospitals, schools and frontline services.”

Fix Victoria, a conservative advocacy group fronted by former Institute of Public Affairs executives Gideon Rozner and Deborah Henderson, has authorised prominent radio and AI-generated online ads which blame Victoria’s crime rate, taxes, ambulance wait times and unrepaired roads on a “debt tsunami”.

Although Fix Victoria does not overtly advocate for people to vote for the Liberal Party, Rozner publicly announced his intention to rejoin the party and support Wilson’s campaign last year.

In the month since the last RPM survey of Victorian state voting intentions was published, the Carroll government has announced the terms of reference and choice of royal commissioner to lead the inquiry into Big Build corruption, committed $550 million to upgrading the Western Freeway near Caroline Springs, identified savings to shave $1.1 billion from the estimated cost of the SRL, and announced its dental clinics plan.

It has also ditched a previously unannounced levy imposed on public transport since the start of last year to provide an additional revenue stream to offset the cost of the SRL. The secret tax, which was conceived of five years ago by former premier Daniel Andrews and then-treasurer Tim Pallas, was exposed by a Victorian Auditor General’s Office investigation into the SRL.

Since last month’s poll, the Coalition has announced a $1.7 billion plan to run hybrid electric trains on the neglected Wyndham and Melton lines in Melbourne’s west, promised to wind-up the state-owned venture capital fund Breakthrough Victoria, and pledged to overhaul the way major infrastructure projects are budgeted and paid for under a new charter of budget honesty.

Labor has governed in Victoria for the past 12 years, and held office for all but four years this century.

The outcome of the November 28 election, as measured by polling numbers and expectations of respondents, remains uncertain. While 26 per cent believe the Coalition will form a majority government in Victoria, 24 per cent believe Labor will again govern in their own right. A surprisingly low number of respondents – just 14 per cent – expect the state to be left with a minority government.

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