Trump and Xi’s ‘stalemate’ summit was a glitzy gift to China

• By Mei Mei Chu, John Geddie and David Brunnstrom / Reuters

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US President Donald Trump hoped his pomp-filled summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) in Washington last week would showcase the strength of his personal relationship with the Chinese leader.

Instead, the limited outcomes showed just how far apart Washington and Beijing remain on key issues, and reinforced a view among analysts that Xi sees little reason to grant Trump major political victories ahead of November’s midterm elections.

“The US-China relationship has settled into a managed stalemate,” Foundation for Defense of Democracies senior director for China Craig Singleton said. “The elaborate pageantry matters precisely because there is still relatively little substantive progress to showcase.”

Both sides said they reached consensus on lowering tariffs for a US$60 billion batch of non-sensitive goods, but there was no timeline for adoption. At the same time, a deadline for a broader trade accord was pushed into next year.

The absence of a Chinese CEO delegation accompanying Xi also highlighted the challenges of overcoming US suspicion of Chinese investment, casting doubt on the viability of a two-way investment scheme the leaders unveiled at a Beijing summit in May, analysts said.

“The Trump-Xi summit created a positive political atmosphere, but did nothing to narrow differences, or reduce mutual suspicions,” S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies senior fellow Drew Thompson said.

’PR WIN’ FOR CHINA

White House officials had tempered expectations before the summit, pointing out that the leaders would also meet at international forums in Shenzhen and Miami before the year end.

However, while the uneventful meeting capped off a diplomatic week that exposed the limits of Trump’s powers, it served as a “PR win” for China, Trivium geopolitics analyst Joe Mazur said.

From the outset, Trump went out of his way to fete Xi — the leader of a country he has previously said is “killing America” with unfair trade practices.

He broke protocol to greet him at the airport, the first time a US president has done so for a world leader in 11 years.

Later, addressing a coterie of top government officials and tech magnates assembled for a lavish state banquet in his honor, Trump said they “had never gotten along better.”

“The extraordinary courtesy the Americans extended to Xi Jinping met and far exceeded China’s expectations,” former Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs official and Global Governance Institution vice president Shen Weizhong (沈偉中) said. “The Chinese do not feel that a visit necessarily has to result in a specific number of agreements, or in tariff reductions or other such outcomes ... The mere fact that they meet, nod to one another, and shake hands speaks volumes.”

Xi was also in no rush to make concessions, analysts said.

China’s dominance in production of rare earths, minerals critical for sectors from tech to autos and defense, gives it a powerful source of leverage, while its trade with the world has surged despite Trump’s tariff threats.

However, Trump did not come away completely empty-handed.

China has proposed cutting tariffs on a range of US agricultural goods, from corn to dairy, a Chinese Ministry of Commerce list showed on Monday. In return, the US would reduce levies on Chinese imports such as toys, fireworks and Christmas ornaments.

That will be welcome news for US farmers, who form one of Trump’s key voting blocs, ahead of midterm elections that look challenging for his Republican party.

However, commodity analysts were also quick to add that soybeans, one of the US’ largest exports, did not feature on China’s list, leaving those purchases potentially hostage to any deterioration in ties.

BUYING TIME ON TAIWAN

China also gave little indication it is willing to help Trump end the war in Iran that has dragged the US president’s approval rating to the lowest in his political career.

Shortly after Xi’s departure, Chinese Vice President Han Zheng (韓正) pushed back against the US on Iran and its threats against Cuba at a UN General Assembly meeting in New York.

The Chinese leader also did not shy away from pressing Trump on thornier topics such as US support for Taiwan.

Trump avoided the subject in his public comments, in a stark contrast with the May summit, at which he called a pending US$14 billion package of arms sales to Taiwan a “negotiating chip” with China.

Washington has cast the busy summit schedule with Xi as important to keeping ties on even keel between the world’s two biggest economies, but frequent interactions of the leaders also buy Beijing time on unwanted US actions such as the arms sales to Taiwan, Eurasia Group senior analyst Jeremy Chan said.

“That’s a major strategic win for the Chinese and a major loss for Taiwan and a lot of US allies and partners in the region,” said Chan, an ex-US diplomat in China.