Social media data show DPP faces headwinds
By Chen Yun and Jonathan Chin / Staff reporter, with staff writer
Social media analytics show that Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidates in next month’s local elections, including Legislator Puma Shen (沈柏文), continue to face headwinds, despite strong online engagement, the party said yesterday.
DPP New Media Center director Juan Chun-ta (阮俊達) made the comments citing a study conducted by analytics consultancy QSearch from Monday last week to Sunday.
Shen, the party’s candidate for Taipei mayor — featured in 2,324,543 social media posts, with 42.8 percent of them negative and 28.2 percent positive, a “net negativity” rate of 14.6 percent, Juan said.
Legislator Puma Shen, center, the Democratic Progressive Party’s Taipei mayoral candidate, greets people at Ziqiang Market in Beitou District yesterday.
Photo: Liu Hsin-de, Taipei Times
His main opponent, Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), featured in 1,643,538 social media posts, with 55.8 percent negative and 11.7 percent positive, or 44 percent net negativity, he said.
Lee Shu-chuan (李四川), the KMT’s candidate for New Taipei City mayor, was mentioned in 125,921 posts and had a 16.9 percent net negativity rating, he said.
Legislator Su Chiao-hui (蘇巧慧), the DPP’s mayoral candidate in New Taipei City, appeared in 100,004 posts and had a 0.8 percent net positivity rating — the only candidate in the greater Taipei area with a positive rating, Juan said.
The DPP does not need to belabor the positive aspects of the figures, but should instead call attention to hidden dangers behind the trendlines, he said.
The Chiang campaign’s attacks targeting Shen’s stance on drug policy and the death penalty, as well as personal attacks using a childhood parent-teacher notebook of the DPP candidate, have increased Shen’s negative coverage by 10 points in the past two weeks, Juan said.
Shen remains the underdog in the race across all polls, he said.
KMT supporters and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) base have been silent on social media due to low morale, but that does not mean they have lost the motivation to vote, he said.
In addition, negative messaging about DPP candidates is strong in closed chat groups on Line and Facebook, Juan said.
Although no foreign power has initiated a large-scale saturation cognitive warfare attack yet, bots have become increasingly sophisticated in manipulating public opinion and researchers have found an increasing number of bot campaigns, he said.
The public should remain vigilant about foreign-directed election meddling, he said.
Shen’s “ocean wave” has elicited a lot of enthusiasm in Taipei, but social media interest in other DPP candidates has declined in the past week, he said.
A voter’s perception of progress or lack of progress in a campaign could be affected by a social media “echo chamber” that does not correspond to reality, Juan said.
DPP supporters should openly endorse the party’s candidates to help boost real support, he added.
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