2027: If you sample 1,000 Nigerians, 900 won’t vote for Tinubu — Henry Shield

Political analyst, Henry Shield, has claimed that President Bola Tinubu may struggle to replicate the number of votes he secured in the 2023 presidential election, predicting that a majority of Nigerians would not vote for the president if an opinion survey were conducted.

Shield made the claim during an interview on Vanguard’s Politics Hub, where he was asked to provide evidence for his assertion that Tinubu would not secure as many votes in 2027 as he did in the 2023 election.

According to him, his prediction was based on what he described as consultations, surveys and interactions with Nigerians across different segments of society.

“We do market consultation, market surveys, we do street surveys. We go out and we engage with the people, and I can tell you, sample 1,000 Nigerians, 900 of them are not going to vote for Tinubu,” Shield said.

He challenged media organisations and other stakeholders to independently test his claim through a nationwide opinion survey, stressing that such an exercise would provide a clearer picture of voters’ current preferences ahead of the 2027 election.

“Please don’t take my word. You are a media house. Engage people to do this for the sake of our democracy, sample just 1,000. Don’t do 1,001. Don’t do the other 9,999. Exactly 1,000,” he said.

Shield added: “Sample 1,000 opinions today in Nigeria, 900 of them are not going to vote for Tinubu.”

Tinubu won the 2023 presidential election with 8,794,726 votes, representing 36.61 per cent of the total votes cast.

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate at the time, Atiku Abubakar, came second with 6,984,520 votes, or 29.07 per cent, while Labour Party candidate Peter Obi polled 6,101,533 votes, representing 25.40 per cent.

The three political figures are expected to feature prominently in the 2027 presidential contest, although Atiku and Obi are now seeking the presidency under different political platforms.

Atiku has moved from the PDP to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), while Obi has left the Labour Party for the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC).