NFL Week 7 upset alert: Can Giants upset Texans with JJ McCarthy at QB? Can Falcons beat 49ers?

Baltimore and Denver are two other teams firmly at risk of being upset

Oct 22, 2026 at 6:00 am ET • 6 min read

The NFL is funny sometimes. Just when you think you have everything pegged, the league will rip the carpet right out from under you before you even realize it. On a week-to-week basis, any team appears capable of winning, no matter how bleak things may seem from the outside looking in. 

Take the Cardinals-Rams games for instance. Los Angeles was dubbed a superteam coming into 2026 and the prohibitive favorite to win the Super Bowl. All the while, Arizona was pinpointed as one of the worst teams in the league and possibly earmarked for the No. 1 overall pick. What happened on Sunday? The Cardinals rolled into SoFi Stadium and handed us arguably the biggest upset of the season. The only thing that stung about Arizona's stunning victory was that we didn't highlight it in last week's post. I had the Cardinals coverering in my weekly picks column, but that was thinking more along the lines of hitting the backdoor cover late. 

While we weren't able to sniff out that upset, we did put you on to the Texans taking down the Jaguars in London and the Tennessee Titans taking down the Colts in Indy in last week's piece. We nearly had the Bucs as we win as well, but they couldn't outlast the Steelers in overtime. 

That's enough looking back at Week 6. Now, it's time to set our sights on Week 7 and identify a handful of favorites that are officially on upset alert. 

All lines via DraftKings; All times ET

Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders (4.5)

• When: 4:25 p.m. ET | Where: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
• TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Raiders ML odds: +180

The Rams are reeling. Not only are they 2-4 to begin the season and in last place in the NFC West, but the injury bug is starting to take massive bites out of the roster. Following the loss to Arizona, head coach Sean McVay announced that star receiver Davante Adams ruptured his hamstring and is out for 6 to 10 weeks. On top of that, newly signed kicker Blake Grupe tore his ACL and is out for the year, as is defensive tackle Poona Ford (ruptured triceps). Fellow defensive tackle Kobie Turner is also going to miss at least a month with a groin injury. And that's not even mentioning Myles Garrett (knee), who is still sidelined. That is a lot of bodies piling up for the Rams, which -- as we started to see last week -- makes them vulnerable to just about any club. 

That includes a Raiders team that is currently looking to stop a three-game losing skid after beginning the year 3-0. While they've come back down to earth a bit, two of those losses (Chiefs and Bills) were by a field goal. Both of those games were played at Allegiant Stadium. Special teams issues have plagued the Rams this season, and they have the worst special teams EPA in the NFL. It's mistakes on that side of the ball that create a perfect concoction for an upset. Moreover, Matthew Stafford hasn't looked like the MVP version of himself from a year ago, ranking 16th in EPA per dropback and 13th in pass success rate. He could be further thrown off his axis when squaring up against Maxx Crosby, who has the second-most pressures (35) in the NFL this season. 

New York Giants (+10.5) at Houston Texans

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Reliant Stadium (Houston)
• TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Giants ML odds: +390

Welcome to the J.J. McCarthy era in New York. I'm genuinely curious to see how this goes for the former Vikings first-round pick, who made his debut last week in the fourth quarter. In that brief showing, McCarthy largely played well, throwing for 243 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Does this give the Giants a boost? McCarthy will have weapons at his disposal in Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely, and it's possible his rushing ability ignites what has been a lackluster ground attack thus far. Meanwhile, these aren't exactly last year's Texans when it comes to the defense. Coming into Week 7, Houston ranks 20th in scoring defense (23.8). They're also forcing teams to go three-and-out just 14.1% of the time, the third-lowest rate in the NFL. Conversely, the Giants are allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (190.2) in the NFL this season, so maybe they cool off C.J. Stroud. 

It's important to note that the Texans will also have a slight rest disadvantage here. While they may be home, Houston is fresh off a game in London last Sunday, which could be a factor in this contest. For what it's worth, the Giants are 4-0 (ATS and SU) in their last four games against Houston. 

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (+3)

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
• TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Falcons ML odds: +130

At some point, the injuries to San Francisco's wide receiver room have to matter, right? When Mike Evans (Achilles) didn't return for the second half of Monday's matchup against the Commanders, the Niners offense mustered a field goal on the opening possession of the third quarter and then punted three straight times (all three-and-outs) to end the game. With the Week 8 bye right in front of them and San Francisco playing on a short week and on the road, it may behoove them to keep Evans sidelined for this game, with hopes of a two-week break being the remedy for the stretch run. If that turns out to be the case, we got a quick sample of an Evans-less offense for the 49ers, and it wasn't the prettiest. 

When Evans is on the field, the 49ers have 0.29 EPA per play compared to a -0.03 EPA per play without him. Translation: That's going from the best offense in the NFL to the 16th-ranked offense in the NFL. That brings San Francisco down much closer to Atlanta's level and makes them a live home dog. 

Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals (+4.5)

• When: 4:05 p.m. ET | Where: State Farm Stadium (Glendale)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Cardinals ML odds: +195

It's borderline irresponsible to back the Broncos right now because their offense is totally lost. Bo Nix is averaging just 4.9 air yards per attempt this season, which is the fewest through six games by any player in the last 20 seasons. They won last week in spite of his performance and the defense taking advantage of some questionable throws by Sam Darnold. Now, they head out on the road to face a Cardinals team that has been pesky this season. Most recently, they held Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense to 16 points in a road win. If that's the kind of defensive effort Arizona is going to bring, why should we think the Nix-led Denver offense will fare any better than L.A. from what we've seen out of them through six weeks? I have confidence in Jacoby Brissett, Trey McBride, and the rest of the Arizona offense to get in the low-to-mid-20s on Sunday, which should be enough against Denver. 

Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) at Seattle Seahawks

• When: 8:20 p.m. ET | Where: Lumen Field (Seattle)
• TV: NBC | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Chiefs ML odds: +124

Seattle will have the home-field and rest advantage over Kansas City after playing last Thursday. However, do you want to know where the Chiefs have the advantage? Quarterback. Sam Darnold was actively putting Seattle behind the eight ball last week in their loss to the Broncos, throwing two interceptions on the final three drives of the game. Turnovers have been a problem for Darnold so far this season, and his 1.4 interceptions-per-game average is the most among players with at least four starts this season. If that persists in this matchup, you're giving Mahomes and old buddy Kenneth Walker III short fields that they'll almost certainly take advantage of to stay undefeated this season. Kansas City is 24-5 in interconference games since 2020 (best in the NFL) and is 8-2 in its past 10 Sunday night road games.