Mexico’s third-quarter growth was 0.9%, slowing but above expectations

Mexico’s economy grew 0.9% during the third quarter of 2026 compared to the previous three months, a slowdown from the 1.4% growth of the second quarter (April-June) compared to the first quarter (January-March), but less so than what economists expected. 

According to preliminary data released by the national statistics agency INEGI on Friday, the 0.9% third-quarter growth rate using seasonally adjusted figures is slightly above the 0.7% growth that economists in a Reuters poll expected for the third quarter

“The slowdown … reflects a return to normal levels of activity following an exceptionally strong quarter, rather than a general deterioration,” Andres Abadia, chief economist for Latin ‌America ⁠at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told Reuters.

With regard to year-on-year comparison, third-quarter GDP registered growth of 3.2% compared to 3Q 2025, the largest expansion in 12 quarters, according to Banamex’s economic research department. This surpassed the 2.5% year-on-year increase expected by economists, according to Reuters.

It bears keeping in mind that Mexico’s economy contracted during July-September 2025, favoring a positive statistical effect in the year-on-year comparison.

Banamex calculated that cumulative GDP from January to September 2026 rose 1.8%, higher than the 0.1% observed during the first nine months of 2025.

INEGI’s preliminary report also shows that all three major groups of economic activity registered less dynamism during the third quarter compared to the period from April to June.

Breaking down the data, INEGI found that tertiary activities (services to consumers and businesses) registered the highest quarterly growth, with a rate of 1.1%, slightly below the 1.4% advance observed in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, secondary activities (i.e., manufacturing, construction, mining and electricity generation) increased 0.8% quarterly, compared to the 1.6% growth recorded between April and June.

In contrast, primary activities (extracting, harvesting or gathering raw materials directly from the natural environment, i.e., agriculture, livestock and fishing) registered a quarterly contraction of 0.4%, after having advanced 2.4% in the previous period.

At an annual rate, tertiary activities grew 3.3%, followed by secondary activities, up 3.1%, and primary activities, up 1.8%.

Trade and services maintained the strongest quarterly growth, increasing by 1.1%, while industry grew by 0.8%. Both sectors continued to grow, although at a slower pace than in the second quarter.

Agricultural activities were the only component of the economy that showed a quarterly decline, dipping by 0.4%.