News24 | ANALYSIS | Can SA catch the next state capture early?

A new ISS anti-corruption tracker uses AI to identify patterns and warning signs in a wide range of government institutions, write Nicky Prins, Florencia Belvedere and Romi Sigsworth in ISS Today.

South Africa knows the cost of acting too late against state capture and systemic corruption. The four-year Zondo Commission reported in 2022 how networks of public and private actors compromised institutions, weakened oversight and diverted public resources, costing the country between R500 billion and R1.5 trillion. State capture hollowed out public institutions, decimated public trust and eroded public service provision.

Investigating and prosecuting corruption remain indispensable, and there has been some progress in taking cases to court and recovering proceeds of crime. However, South Africa needs credible ways to identify emerging risks and intervene before corruption practices and networks become entrenched. The National Anti-Corruption Strategy emphasises the importance of early detection to supplement law enforcement agencies’ more reactive measures.

To help fill this prevention gap, the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) has developed an Anti-Corruption Tracker information system (ACTis) that identifies patterns associated with state capture and systemic corruption in specific government institutions. By analysing a range of disaggregated public information, ACTis offers government, business and civil society actors an evidence-informed foundation to act sooner to protect institutions.

Pattern detection matters because, viewed separately, individual incidents may appear isolated or inconclusive. Their wider significance may not be understood as a systemic agenda at work, seeking to capture the state or its entities for private purposes.

Corrupt syndicates use a wide range of practices such as dispensing resources, licences, jobs and other benefits to secure allies, entrench their power and financially benefit themselves and their network. Moreover, law enforcement and regulatory authorities can be co-opted to help hide acts of corruption, protect perpetrators and neutralise opponents.

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ACTis methodology draws on findings from the Zondo Commission, international research and the work of the National Anti-Corruption Advisory Council. At its centre is a nine-flag analytical framework comprising recurring features exhibited by institutions that may be captured or are at risk of capture.

These flags are improper appointments, co-opting key functions, a climate of fear or favour, corrupt awards, financial malpractice, obstructing accountability, manipulating public perceptions, private gain and shadow networks.

ACTis looks for patterns of risk supported by public, verifiable evidence. It combines an artificial intelligence (AI) tool custom-developed for ISS with the judgement and expertise of human analysts. The AI tool scans court records, audit reports, parliamentary proceedings, investigative journalism, civil society reports and verified databases to identify recurring entities, relationships and behaviours.

Analysts assess the credibility, context and relevance of the evidence against defined criteria before deciding whether to raise a flag that signals elevated risk and the need for scrutiny. More flags suggest a pattern; increasing the urgency to act.

In July 2026, ACTis analysed 10 institutions in South Africa’s water sector, including water boards and catchment management agencies. It found that six of these showed signs of improper senior appointments, where individuals in leadership positions were not suitably qualified or had links to political party structures.

Some of these institutions exhibited limited consequence management, intimidation of staff and victimisation of whistleblowers. There were indications of financial malpractice in nine of them and irregular contract awards in seven.

In state capture scenarios, this is no coincidence: the internal dynamics of appointing leaders who can be influenced, a culture of fear or favour and weak internal controls enable corrupt contract awards and payments for the benefit of a particular network. Examples during Jacob Zuma’s presidency include the systematic dismantling of the South African Revenue Service and the collapse of the state-owned freight transport company, Transnet.

The water sector is particularly at risk as it is attractive to construction and water ‘mafias’ – organised crime syndicates that sabotage municipal infrastructure and/or profit from lucrative emergency water tanker contracts.

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For government and other officials, civil society actors and the media, ACTis reports can help identify where closer scrutiny is needed, prioritise limited investigative and oversight resources, strengthen risk management and take proportionate preventive action.

For instance, ACTis reports can help oversight institutions, such as the Auditor-General of South Africa, assess the risk profile of a particular institution and focus their audit plans. They can inform the Special Investigating Unit’s decision to request the presidential proclamation it needs to investigate systemic corruption at a public institution.

ACTis reports can help parliamentary committees, like the Standing Committee on Public Accounts, obtain answers from political leaders about the flags raised for a particular institution and follow up on identified corrective actions. Civil society organisations can use the reports to advocate for specific reforms or increased accountability.

Roughly 50 institutional reports spanning national, provincial and municipal government, public organisations and constitutional entities are available free of charge on the ACTis website. The full site is scheduled to launch by early December 2026 and should increase coverage to around 200 institutions by the end of 2027, including in-year updates.

South Africa has paid dearly to understand how state capture develops. The ongoing work of the Judicial Commission of Inquiry into Criminality, Political Interference and Corruption in the Criminal Justice System (Madlanga Commission) reminds us that state capture was not a ‘once-off’ project. The multiple hearings have unravelled alleged criminal infiltration, collusion and the abuse of law-enforcement positions in the Tshwane, Ekurhuleni and Johannesburg metropolitan police departments.

As a society, we must remain vigilant. We cannot wait until our institutions are already harmed before we act – especially since it takes much longer to rebuild than to destroy. ACTis helps turn those hard-won lessons into ongoing monitoring and action: detecting risks earlier, understanding institutional patterns better and enabling responsible authorities to intervene before systemic corruption becomes entrenched.

Nicky Prins is project leader, Florencia Belvedere is a project manager and Romi Sigsworth is a researcher for the Anti-Corruption Tracker information system (ACTis) at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS).