New Zealand poll puts Labour ahead of PM Luxon’s National Party

New Zealand’s Labour Party edged ahead of prime minister Christopher Luxon’s National Party in a new poll, but a hung parliament remains possible ahead of the Nov 7 election as neither major bloc can govern alone.

The Post-Freshwater Strategy poll funded by Infrastructure New Zealand put Labour on 28% and National on 27%. This is the second time this month that polls have had the two major parties sitting below 30%, with them also polling below this in the recent Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll.

Labour’s support was down 7 percentage points from June, while National had lost 2 percentage points since then, the poll showed.

The Post’s modelling based on these results shows National and its governing partners, ACT New Zealand and New Zealand First, would win 60 seats in a 120-seat parliament, short of a majority.

Labour, the Greens and Te Pati Maori would secure 53 seats. The smaller Opportunity Party would win seven seats and hold the balance of power. However, Luxon has ruled out working with the Opportunity Party, complicating National’s path to a second term.

The modelling does not take in to account any resulting overhang seats – additional seats added to parliament when a party wins more electorate seats than its share of the party vote would normally allocate.

The Post-Freshwater Strategy poll surveyed 1,011 eligible New Zealand voters aged 18 and over online between Sept 4 and 11.