From snowstorms to heatwaves: What SAWS says comes next for South Africa

This week, South Africa was buried in snow warnings, cut-off communities and Orange Level 6 alerts.

By the weekend, the story flips entirely. Looking further ahead, it flips even further.

Gauteng heads into Saturday and Sunday with clear skies, no rainfall and daytime highs climbing into the low 20s.

It’s a sharp turnaround from a week that saw temperatures drop to just above freezing in parts of the province.

SAWS forecasts show no warnings currently in place for the weekend, with the cold system that dominated headlines all week finally clearing.

The bigger picture: El Niño brings heatwave risk through the rest of 2026

Looking further ahead, South Africa’s climate story shifts in a much bigger way.

The ENSO Reference Group, made up of climate experts from several South African research institutions, has confirmed El Niño is firmly established.

Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region are already sitting around 1.7°C above average, placing the current event in the moderate category.

Climate experts expect above-normal temperatures and an increased risk of heatwaves from August through December 2026, with a chance the event intensifies further into a strong El Niño by late spring or early summer.

Why this matters beyond just hot days

El Niño years typically bring more than just heat.

Experts are also flagging a risk of below-average rainfall across South Africa’s summer rainfall regions later this year, which could delay planting for commercial farmers and place pressure on water supplies if the pattern holds.

It’s strange to think we’ve spent a week talking about snow, and now we’re looking at heatwave warnings for the months ahead.

South African weather really doesn’t do things by halves.

Would you rather deal with an unexpected cold snap or a stretch of extreme heat?