New alliances reshape Melaka polls outlook

New political configurations have reshaped the political landscape in Melaka, making the narrow margins witnessed in the 2021 state election a poor benchmark to predict the outcome of the coming polls.

Thirteen seats, most of them Malay-majority strongholds, were won with majorities of under 1,000 votes in 2021 as Barisan Nasional, Perikatan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan clashed in all 28 constituencies.

But it will be different this time, although there are 17 multi-cornered fights in the Nov 14 polls, says political analyst Hisomuddin Bakar of Ilham Centre.

With BN and PN having formed an alliance, a unified Malay vote could turn the formerly slim wins into comfortable victories for the Malay unity pact, even in mixed seats.

Additionally, the bulk of the 17 multi-cornered battles on Nov 14 involve Bersama, a PKR splinter launched just this year.

“The BN-PN cooperation will give a structural advantage in the 21 seats BN won in 2021. The unifying of these two political forces, who used to be rivals, could produce an organised consolidation of Malay votes.

“The results of the 2021 Melaka state election, particularly seats won by narrow margins, can no longer be used as an absolute benchmark for assessing the contest this time,” he told FMT.

Nonetheless, the analyst said the BN-PN alliance may not necessarily result in a transfer of votes for all coalition component parties, especially PN’s Wawasan, primarily composed of former Umno leaders such as Hamzah Zainudin, Mas Ermieyati Samsudin, Ronald Kiandee and Abdul Rahim Thamby Chik, among many others.

The defection of these leaders from Umno to Bersatu following BN’s fall from power in 2018 was still a sore point for Umno’s grassroots, potentially deterring them from backing Wawasan candidates, said Hisomuddin.

“An agreement at the leadership level does not necessarily translate into a smooth transfer of votes among voters,” he added.

Wawasan is contesting the mixed seat of Bemban, won by Bersatu in 2021, and the DAP stronghold of Kesidang.

BN is contesting 23 seats while PN vies for the remaining five under their alliance.

PH, which has fielded 24 candidates, has formed a similar pact with former component Bersatu, which is contesting seven seats. They will clash in three constituencies.

2 other major changes

Hisomuddin said there were two other major differences with the 2021 election – the Melaka electorate has grown from 495,195 to 687,697 voters, and the country has recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic, which accounted for the low turnout in 2021.

The election then was also held just a month before the voting age was reduced to 18 and automatic voter registration took effect.

Hisomuddin said young voters will be a key segment for all parties; these voters were more dynamic, unpredictable and did not hold political allegiances unlike traditional voters.

“Their support is heavily influenced by current trends, their perception of candidates, issues that hit close to home and the effectiveness of campaign communications.

“Therefore, any party still has a chance at staging a surprise if they field the right candidate, present an attractive campaign message, and employs an aproach that truly understands the aspirations of young voters,” he said.

More challengers in marginal seats

Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said the multi-cornered battles involved more marginal seats from 2021, and the outcome could be determined by how the votes would be split.

Parties with a poor track record could face defeats, while the new political alliances could shut out even those assemblymen with a track record, especially in non-BN seats.

“These constituencies have many undecided voters. Some may only decide at the last minute, depending on current issues, political messaging or public sentiment,” he said.

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