France: Young voters blase about Glucksmann's Socialists

The historically working-class Parisian neighborhood of Belleville has gentrified in recent years. It was here that Raphael Glucksmann, a member of the European Parliament for France's center-left Socialists, celebrated his victory in the party's presidential primary on October 11.

Two rounds of voting had been anticipated, but the 46-year-old son of philosopher and essayist Andre Glucksmann triumphed in the first round with a convincing 66% of the vote and will be the Socialist candidate in France's 2027 presidential election.

As he left the Cantine de Belleville restaurant, Glucksmann was flour-bombed by an unidentified assailant. The following morning, he called on his rival, the left-wing French populist Jean-Luc Melenchon, to condemn attacks carried out by his supporters, though it is not clear that the attacker was indeed a supporter of Melenchon's La France Insoumise (LFI).

The incident has highlighted the issue set to dog Glucksmann's presidential candidacy over the coming weeks: How can he win over Melenchon's supporters if he refuses to work with their candidate?

Gluckmann's rapid rise

"Where do you stand on Melenchon?" That was the question that dominated much of the Socialists' primary campaign. Party leader Olivier Faure spoke in favor of leaving the door open for cooperation with the LFI, but Glucksmann called for a clear break with the far left. His decisive victory is therefore also seen as a vote in favor of a clear demarcation.

The other primary candidates questioned Glucksmann's political experience. Segolene Royal, a previous presidential candidate, compared his bid for the Elysee with that of an "intern" wanting to take charge of a company. She said Glucksmann had no experience in government or even running a local authority.

Despite Glucksmann's victory in the primary, his starting position is a difficult one. A poll by Toluna Harris Interactive, published the day after his win, projects that he would win 10–11% of the vote. The same poll put Melenchon on 18%, meaning the far-left man would be much more likely to reach the runoff. But the survey was conducted before Glucksmann won the primary, and so does not take into account any potential boost the nomination may give him. Still, 10% would be an improvement on the Socialists' performance in the last presidential election in 2022, when their candidate Anne Hidalgo won just 1.75% of the national vote.

There is also the complication that the Socialists are banking on a man who is not even a party member to lead them from irrelevance. Raphael Glucksmann actually belongs to a small center-left party called Place Publique.

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Melenchon's youth appeal

Glucksmann has his work cut out for him — especially with young people. In an Ipsos survey in September, which posited Glucksmann as the social-democratic candidate and Edouard Philippe as the only candidate from the political center, Melenchon scored 41% among the under-25s. Meanwhile, 20% of this age group supported the far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen. France's young electorate is politically divided, but Melenchon still dominates on the left.

The 75-year-old is currently rallying alongside the students whose protests have drawn international attention. At a rally near Clermont-Ferrand in central France , he expressed solidarity with their movement and reiterated his calls for lowering the voting age to 16 and abolishing Parcoursup, France's national admissions procedure for higher education.

In an analysis for the Fondation Jean-Jaures, a Socialist-aligned think tank, the political scientist Antoine Bristielle distinguishes between a core group of committed LFI voters and the broader left. Melenchon's most loyal supporters, he says, are often young, educated city-dwellers, and many are under a lot of financial pressure. Four in ten households in this group live on a net monthly income of less than €2,000 ($2,200).

Bristielle estimates that just under a third of the left-wing electorate in his study care more about a left-wing victory than their allegiance to any particular party. Almost half of the people in this group are younger than 35, and would consider voting for the Socialists, the Greens, or LFI. Redistribution and an active government are important to them, but most would prefer politicians who are willing to compromise.

Glucksmann's youth efforts

The pattern recently observed in Germany, where young women are more likely to vote for the left and young men for the right, does not apply in France. Political scientists Anja Durovic, Nonna Mayer and Noemie Piolat found that in the 2024 European and parliamentary elections, young French women were not significantly more likely to vote for the left, or less likely to vote for the far right, than men of the same age. It remains to be seen whether this pattern will be replicated in the 2027 presidential election.

Glucksmann says he would ease the burden on earned income by reducing France's CSG social security tax while increasing taxes on inheritances worth more than €2 million. He also presents himself as a committed supporter of European integration, while Melenchon has called the EU a neoliberal institution. Glucksmann's political profile combines social policy demands with foreign policy positions that could also appeal to voters from the camp of the current president, Emmanuel Macron.

France's Ukraine policy is one such issue. Glucksmann favors decisive support for Kyiv. Manon Aubry, a member of the European Parliament for Melenchon's LFI, says her party supports military assistance only under certain conditions, namely: The provision of aid to Ukraine must first be subject to democratic debate; it must not enable attacks deep inside Russian territory; and it must not weaken France's own defense capabilities. In 2024, LFI MPs voted against the French–Ukrainian security agreement.

The tension between the parties of the left was once again apparent in the aftermath of the flour attack in Belleville. The LFI MP Sebastien Delogu posted a declaration of support on X for the taxi driver who was going to have to clean his car.

Glucksmann must win over a lot of voters from Melenchon's camp if he is to have a chance of winning the presidency. This is likely to prove a much more difficult task than simply distancing himself from Melenchon.