India, US fine-tuning trade deal after concluding most discussions, says minister Piyush Goyal

THE HAGUE: India and the US have concluded most discussions on a proposed trade agreement and are fine-tuning the deal, commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal said on Monday, signalling progress towards an agreement that could bring greater certainty to Indian exporters facing shifting US tariff policies.

“In the last four and a half years, friends, we have entered into nine free trade agreements or bilateral trade agreements. I'm adding the US in that, we have concluded most of the discussions and are fine-tuning the agreement,” Goyal said at the India-Netherlands Business Forum in The Hague.

For Indian exporters, a deal could provide greater predictability in pricing US-bound shipments and negotiating contracts. Any boost to exports would also offer timely support to an economy grappling with the fallout from the wars in West Asia and Ukraine.

Goyal’s remarks follow a recent visit to India by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said the two countries were “very, very close” to a trade agreement, with a small number of issues remaining to be resolved.

“We’re very, very close. I would say we’re about as close as you can be without (inaudible) agreement. I think there’s a small number of items to wrap up, so I think that will happen shortly,” Rubio had said.

Market access

Goyal said India’s expanding network of trade agreements, including those under negotiation, would give it preferential access to economies accounting for $85 trillion of the $115 trillion global GDP.

“Just to give you the context of India thinking on opening our doors. Until 2014, all the free trade agreements put together opened a GDP of $10 trillion where we had preferential access or where we opened our doors to those countries,” said Goyal, who is on an official visit to the Netherlands.

“India would have opened its doors and had preferential market access to an additional $60 trillion worth of economies around the globe. Together, now we have $70 trillion of economies where we would have preferential trade agreements. I have eight more negotiations which are underway right now which will add another $15 trillion. So India would be opening its doors to $85 trillion out of $115 trillion. That's around 76% of global GDP with which we are building our partnership, opening the doors on a complementary and cooperative nature to greater business engagement,” Goyal said.

Bilateral trade between India and the US rose 6.53% to $140.76 billion in fiscal year 2026 (FY26), from $132.2 billion in the previous year. India’s trade surplus narrowed to $33.9 billion from $40.9 billion. Exports to the US edged up to $87.31 billion from $86.51 billion, while imports rose 17.16% to $53.45 billion from $45.62 billion.

The proposed agreement comes as global supply chains face disruption from the wars in West Asia and Ukraine, alongside a broader global slowdown. Goods exports remain important to India’s growth, with provisional commerce ministry data showing merchandise exports rose 23% year-on-year to $44.4 billion in September. Imports increased 8% to $74.61 billion, narrowing the trade deficit to $30.21 billion from $33 billion a year earlier.

Growth holds up

Goyal said India remained on track for strong growth despite international uncertainties.

“Despite all the problems of the world, we are the fastest growing large economy. We grew 7.7% last year. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) just came out with numbers…We're expected to go upward of 7%. My own guess is we'll grow 7.5% this year,” he said.

The IMF has raised its growth forecast for India by 60 basis points to 7% for FY27, reinforcing its position as the fastest-growing major economy.

Ramita Mishra contributed to the story.

The writer is in The Hague as the guest of Confederation of Indian Industry.

About the Author

Utpal Bhaskar is Assistant Managing Editor with Mint and part of the founding team that launched the newspaper. Widely cited by authors and think-tanks, he leads policy coverage for Mint and is part of the leadership team. He is a UK government’s Chevening Fellow and a US State Department’s International Visitor Leadership Program (IVLP) alumnus, with interests in political economy and geo-economics. Based in New Delhi, he has extensive experience reporting on and leading news coverage at the intersection of geopolitics, technology, and economic policy, focusing particularly on India-China-Pakistan dynamics, the subcontinent, supply chains, and energy security. He is part of the founding teams of three start-up media platforms and previously worked at afaqs! Reporter,  Business Standard, and News Corp VCCircle. He holds a Master's degree in Political Science from the Centre for Political Studies (CPS) at Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), and is also a University Grants Commission (UGC) NET scholar.