Iran views Jordan, UAE as targets that won't hit back, even if attacks include US bases - analysis

With the recent pact signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, and the attempt to improve relations with Qatar, only Jordan and the UAE remain as targets for retaliation.

Iran condemned US strikes on Larak Island on Sunday night. It also said it has the right to self-defense. In the wake of the strikes, it carried out attacks on Jordan and the UAE.

“Iran said it retaliated against the United States in the early hours of Monday morning, targeting US military air bases in Jordan and the UAE and shooting down an American drone over the Strait of Hormuz, hours after Washington launched its first strikes on Iranian territory in a month,” Rudaw media reported.

The Kingdom of Jordan said it intercepted at least 8 missiles, with the armed forces noting that the missiles were destroyed before posing a threat to civilians or property. Jordan once again had to protect its civilians from an Iranian attack.

Iran International noted that the Egyptian Foreign Ministry “announced in a statement on Monday, September 29, that the Islamic Republic's attacks on Jordan and the United Arab Emirates could expand the scope of confrontations and undermine the opportunities for restoring stability to the region.”

The report added that “Egypt condemned the Islamic Republic's attacks on Jordan and the United Arab Emirates and warned of the consequences of continued escalation of tensions in the region. Egypt also declared its full solidarity with the United Arab Emirates and Jordan, stressing the need to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the countries and protect the security and health of citizens.”

Why is Iran targeting Jordan again?

Iran has targeted Jordan in the past. It has expanded its retaliation from the Gulf to increasingly target Jordan. This is not random. Iran has specifically shifted targeting to Jordan. This may be partly to avoid angering several key Gulf countries. For instance, Iran doesn’t want to anger Saudi Arabia after the kingdom, Turkey, and Pakistan entered into a new pact. Iran also wants to get along with Qatar and Oman, leaving the UAE and Jordan as preferable targets.

Targeting Jordan is a message to the US that even if the Americans move military assets away from the Gulf, Iran will still try to hit them further away. Iran doesn’t want to target Israel, though, because then Israel would likely respond.

As such, it's striking Jordan as a message to the US and Israel. It is also targeting the UAE because the UAE is part of the Abraham Accords and hosts US forces. It isn’t targeting Qatar, even though US bases are there. It has also toned down threats to Kuwait.

Rudaw media noted that “the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said its Aerospace Force carried out a combined ballistic missile and drone operation against the King Hussein and al-Azraq air bases in Jordan in response to what it called ‘American-Zionist aerial aggression’ against Larak Island.” Note that Iran is also blaming Israel while attacking an Arab country. Jordan has not attacked Iran.

However, Iran feels it has impunity to attack wherever it wants. After the US and Israeli strikes in late February, Iran lashed out by targeting most countries in the region. It has now narrowed down its list of targets. Tehran’s retaliation is calculated, targeting places it thinks won’t strike back. For instance, it has targeted the Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq.

Targeting American bases in Jordan

Iran is clear in claiming that it is attacking “American bases” in Jordan. The regime in Tehran claimed to target “the technical and maintenance infrastructure and the deployment sites of enemy fighter jets at two American airbases, King Hussein and al-Azraq in Jordan,” causing “heavy damage.”

“US forces took limited, precise action against IRGC minelaying forces posing an imminent threat in the Strait of Hormuz,” CENTCOM said on Monday. “In essence, Iran created the threat, and the US military eliminated it to protect civilian mariners, commercial shipping, and the free flow of global commerce,” Rudaw noted.

Iran also claimed to have downed a US drone and to have targeted al-Minhad air base in the United Arab Emirates. The base is south of Dubai.

In Iran, the Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has tried to claim Iran is not seeking a wider war. However, he is not in charge very much these days. Iran is believed to largely be ruled by a junta of IRGC officers who have increased their power over the last six months. “We are not seeking war, but we will give a decisive response to aggressors,” Pezeshkian said.

Meanwhile, in Cairo, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry “stressed the need to stop the attacks, reduce tension, and return to the negotiating table, and called for providing an opportunity for diplomatic efforts aimed at reaching a solution to restore security and stability and prevent the spread of confrontation in the region,” Iran International noted.

Iran will continue to view Jordan as a kind of “soft underbelly” for attacks when it claims it is retaliating for US strikes. This has become the Iranian model now. Iran does not think Jordan will respond. It also thinks this is a way around the Turkey-Saudi-Pakistan alliance. Egypt’s comments show that Arab states have solidarity with Jordan.