Najib house arrest may boost Umno in Melaka, but GE16 impact unclear

Former prime minister Najib Razak’s house arrest may benefit Umno at tomorrow’s Melaka state election, but it may not translate into broader electoral support for the party in other states.

Najib, 73, arrived at his home in Taman Duta, Kuala Lumpur, on Tuesday night to serve the remainder of his six-year prison sentence in the SRC International case, having previously been in Kajang prison since Aug 23, 2022.

On Wednesday, PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man said the issue had given Umno momentum ahead of the Melaka polls and could sustain the party through to the 16th general election (GE16).

Analysts say the development is more likely to galvanise existing supporters to vote for Barisan Nasional (BN) than attract new voters ahead of the 16th general election (GE16).

Tawfik Yaakub said Najib was still an influential figure in Melaka, and he agreed with Tuan Ibrahim that the former Umno president’s house arrest could give Umno a boost at tomorrow’s election.

However, the Universiti Malaya academic said the momentum might not carry through to GE16 due to differences in demographics and political culture across states.

He said the issue might be viewed differently in Selangor and Penang, potentially undermining Umno’s efforts to win over voters and rebuild support in the two states, where the party has suffered significant losses since 2008.

“Umno has a strong grassroots presence in Melaka and the advantage of leading the state government,” he told FMT.

“But in Selangor and Penang, particularly in urban areas, voters tend to focus more on issues of integrity, reforms and the economy.

“What works in Melaka may not necessarily work in other states because voters do not share the same sentiments towards Najib.”

Political optimism, not reality

Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri of Global Asia Consulting described Tuan Ibrahim’s remarks as reflecting political optimism rather than the reality of voter behaviour.

He said the house arrest issue might revive enthusiasm among Umno’s grassroots, particularly those who remained loyal to Najib, but was unlikely to attract new voters.

“Will people struggling with the cost of living change their political preferences because a former prime minister has been moved to a different place to serve his sentence?”

Risk for Umno

Meanwhile, Tawfik cautioned that Najib’s house arrest could be a double-edged sword for Umno if the party became too reliant on sentiments surrounding its former president.

“Heading into GE16, Umno needs to prove that it has a reform agenda, new leadership and solutions to the problems facing the people,” he said.

Zaharuddin warned that relying on the issue of Najib’s house arrest could undermine Umno’s efforts to restore the public’s confidence in the party, particularly among younger voters seeking change.

“Umno must not end up succeeding in bringing Najib home but failing to bring voters back to Umno.”

In January 2024, the then Yang di-Pertuan Agong, Al-Sultan Abdullah Sultan Ahmad Shah, halved Najib’s 12-year prison sentence in the SRC International case and reduced his RM210 million fine to RM50 million under a royal pardon.

In September, the current Yang di-Pertuan Agong, Sultan Ibrahim, granted Najib a conditional pardon, allowing him to serve the remainder of his sentence under house arrest until Aug 23, 2028.

The release was subject to Najib’s payment of the RM50 million fine, which Umno settled with funds raised through a donation drive.

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