John Ivison: Has Mark Carney peaked? The curse of the Rolling Stone would say so

This is probably as good as it gets for Mark Carney, if the curse of Rolling Stone holds true.

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The prime minister was lauded for his “genius-level instincts” in a recent profile in the magazine, under the headline: “How Mark Carney Became Leader of the Free World by Standing Up to Trump.”

There was more breathless prose about Canada being “an underdog, bad-ass, outlaw nation.”

But it was a reminder that such those who the gods wish to destroy, they first put on the cover of Rolling Stone.

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In July 2017, Justin Trudeau was at 43 per cent support in the polls when he was profiled. “Why Can’t He Be Our President?”, ran the headline. “Is the Canadian Prime Minister the Free World’s Best Hope?”

It quickly became apparent that whatever the question was, Justin Trudeau was not the answer and his popularity at home dived.

Similarly, Carney has appeared weightless to this point but discontent is as fundamental a property of politics as gravitational pull is on mass. Sooner or later, he will come down to earth with a bump – quite possibly because he has decided to expend some of the political capital he has accumulated.

That certainly seems to be the case when it comes to the new legislation aimed at reducing the days and hours lost to labour disputes. Unions like Unifor backed the Liberals in 2025, but their patience will be stretched by a law aimed at limiting the right to strike.

Carney’s iconic image as the leader of the Trump resistance will likely be tested if Mexico and the U.S. strike a deal and invite Canada to join, as happened in 2018.

Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum has said that an agreement is close “within the framework of sovereignty, respect and what is best for Mexico.” If such a deal respecting Canadian sovereignty and featuring lower tariff rates on steel, aluminum and cars is presented, Carney will be under enormous pressure to accept.

Since it is unlikely that the White House will sign an unconditional surrender document, we can expect a fudged agreement, where all sides agree to do things that they would prefer not to.

The messy business of governing is sure to bespatter the prime minister’s reputation.

Carney gave a sense of how stretched he is when he was asked by a reporter about his ability to focus on domestic and international events. He said that on Sunday, “instead of getting up and having a little bit of exercise and having brunch, I went to meet with the President of France (in Saint Pierre and Miquelon).”

On Monday, he said he had to take part in the ceremony to introduce three new MPs, participate in question period and introduce legislation, before heading to New York for the United Nations General Assembly.

“You can do both (domestic and international), I have to do both and I am doing both,” he said.

But is he doing those things to his own high standards?

The good news for him is that he doesn’t have to be immaculate; he just has to look better than the other guy.

No one is doing more than Pierre Poilievre to ensure that is the case.

At a rally in Brantford, Ont., the Opposition leader unveiled his new candidate, Kevin Davis, to run in the Brantford-Brant South-Six Nations byelection, following the resignation from caucus of MP Larry Brock.

Ostensibly, the decision was made quickly in case the Liberals decide to call a snap byelection. That sounds unlikely. No Liberal wants to see the back of Poilievre.

Brantford has the potential to become Poilievre’s Battle of Little Bighorn, with the leader in the role of George Armstrong Custer.

To avoid that unhappy outcome, Conservatives needed a show of unity and a rallying call to persuade Canadians that the party of Macdonald, Diefenbaker, Mulroney and Harper is ready to govern, if the Liberals falter.

Carney’s iconic image as the leader of the Trump resistance will likely be tested if Mexico and the U.S. strike a deal and invite Canada to join

Instead, the appointment of a candidate by the party, rather than through an open nomination, led the man who held the Brantford seat for 13 years walking out of the hall in protest and predicting the Conservatives will now lose the byelection.

Phil McColman was first elected in 2008 and even survived the 2015 Liberal tsunami that swept away many of his colleagues.

Those victories were built on a strong local riding association in which local pastor, Dave Carroll, was an active player.

McColman and Brock both planned to support Carroll in an open nomination contest. Those hopes were stymied by the Conservative party’s decision to appoint Davis, the local mayor.

“It feels like the biggest gut punch. I am taking it personally, though maybe I shouldn’t,” McColman said in an interview.

He said he raised the issue with the Opposition Leader’s Office “but they refused to listen.”

Davis will now face Joy O’Donnell, the Liberal candidate who finished second to Brock last year.

McColman said “hundreds” of Conservatives in the riding have expressed their disquiet at the way the process was handled. “People are disillusioned and upset,” he said. “I’m not confident of winning this byelection.”

Another former MP I spoke with, who did not want to be named because he has always been known as a team player, said it is not part of the Conservative party tradition to impose candidates. “We say we are the grassroots party, and we are. But this is no better than the Liberals,” he said.

The Conservative movement is showing signs of being more fractured than at any time since Stephen Harper united the right in 2003.

A man who was involved in those efforts, Jason Kenney, welcomed the Carney government’s plan to reduce hours lost to labour disruptions, saying the Conservative party has “chosen populism over principle, and votes over economic growth” by cozying up to the unions. On social media, he called for the party to “lead the way” in creating certainty for ports, railways and airlines.

His former colleague, Conservative MP Kyle Seeback, responded that Kenney didn’t know what he was talking about. He said his party won union endorsements at the last election and won ridings with strong labour movements. “We won’t be taking any advice from Jason on labour policy or labour relations,” he said.

In the coming days, it is very likely that Carney’s “genius-level instincts” are revealed to be less extraordinary than Rolling Stone would have you believe.

But that won’t matter if the Conservative party continues to degenerate into a loose confederation of warring tribes.

National Post

jivison@criffel.ca
Twitter.com/IvisonJ

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