Vietnam’s growth surges toward 10% goal, trade back in surplus

Vietnam’s economy accelerated more than expected in the third quarter on rising foreign investment and factory output, putting the nation in reach of the government’s ambitious double-digit growth goal for the year.

Gross domestic product rose 9.95% in the July-September period from a year earlier, according to data from the National Statistics Office in Hanoi on Saturday. That’s the fastest since the third quarter of 2022, and beat the 8.65% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of eight economists and a revised figure of 8.81% for the second quarter.

One of Asia’s brightest growth stars, Vietnam’s government is targeting at least 10% expansion this year as it seeks to move up the value chain and reach high-income status by 2045. The data give the clearest indication yet that it is on course and that a massive infrastructure investment campaign is delivering the required results.

Trade was especially strong, with exports rising 39.1% in September, much faster than the estimate of 26.6%. Imports gained 45.8%, compared to expectations of a 38.1% gain. The trade balance returned to a surplus of US$1.27 billion, after deficits for the first eight months of this year.

Meanwhile, pledged foreign direct investment jumped 76.4% in first nine months of this year to US$50.4 billion, with manufacturing and property among the key sectors. Disbursed FDI in same period was up 12.1%.

Consumer prices increased 5.08% in September from a year earlier, compared to the 5.10% estimate, with transport and construction costs remaining elevated due to the Iran war. The government aims to cap inflation at 4.5% this year.

The statistics office said that the economy posted positive results across almost all sectors, supported by the government efforts to achieve double-digit growth in 2026, while structural reforms have improved governance and resource use. The economy expanded 9.01% in the nine months through September.

Vietnam’s trade surplus with the US, its largest export market, rose 23.8% to US$122.6 billion in the first nine months of the year, the statistics agency said. That’s a potential source of tension amid ongoing US Section 301 investigations.

Vietnamese President To Lam told Bloomberg in an interview in New York late last month that his nation is “very close” to a trade deal with the US, pledging to buy more high-tech goods. But direct talks with US President Donald Trump failed to happen.

The Southeast Asian nation has spent months in protracted negotiations with the US over a final trade deal, with transshipment and non-tariff barriers emerging as central sticking points. Vietnam has one of the world’s largest trade surpluses with the US, and Washington is pressuring Hanoi to narrow the imbalance.

Vietnam had a deficit of US$121.5 billion with China, its top source for raw materials and components, up 43% from the first nine months of last year.

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