IMF says Japan to fall to sixth in world GDP rankings behind India, Britain

The International Monetary Fund projects that Japan’s nominal gross domestic product, measured in US dollars, will be overtaken by India and Britain in 2027, falling from fourth to sixth place globally, Kyodo News reported.

Since 2023, Japan has ranked fourth behind the US, China and Germany.

The IMF’s GDP projections were released earlier this month, amid the yen’s continuing weakness against the US dollar and sluggish Japanese economic growth.

According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, Japan’s nominal GDP is projected at US$4.3419 trillion in 2026 and US$4.4676 trillion in 2027.

For both years, the calculations appear to have been based on an exchange rate in the range of 158 yen to the dollar.

Meanwhile, India’s GDP is expected to reach US$4.5211 trillion in 2027, jumping from sixth to fourth place globally.

In the key quarterly report released in April, the IMF had projected that Britain would overtake Japan in 2029. However, it is now forecasting British GDP at US$4.4889 trillion in 2027.

While Japan’s real economic growth is projected at 0.7% in both 2026 and 2027, India’s economy is expected to expand 7% on a fiscal year basis in both years.

The report said that “India remains among the fastest-growing major economies,” driven by “resilient domestic demand and robust services activity.”

The report said Britain’s economy is likely to grow 1.3% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027.

Japan had long held the No. 2 spot globally, but following China’s rapid growth, it fell to third place in 2010 and was overtaken by Germany in 2023, slipping to fourth place.