Red alert status likely over Luzon grid amid El Niño threat

The Department of Energy (DOE) said on Monday that it is closely monitoring the situation of the power grids across the country amid the threat of a potentially strong El Niño.

The department said that it will conduct simulations on the grids as increased demand for power supply is expected during the expected prolonged drought.

“In preparation for the El Niño, what we are doing is to make a simulation on the current situation with increased demand due to El Niño. So we take into consideration kung ano ‘yung status ng mga power plants natin ngayon, at ano yung mga power plants at transmission facilities na nagkakaroon ng increased frequencies ng outages during mga ganitong situation,” said DOE Undersecretary Mario Marasigan in a press briefing.

(In preparation for El Niño, what we are doing is making a simulation on the current situation with increased demand due to El Niño. So we take into consideration what the status of our power plants is right now, and which power plants and transmission facilities experience an increased frequency of outages during these types of situations.)

PAGASA earlier said average temperatures across the Philippines are set to rise by 1 to 2 degrees Celsius during the weather phenomenon.

The Bicol region and several parts of Visayas and Mindanao are already experiencing the effects of El Niño, and this may intensify during the dry season of 2027, said the state weather bureau.

The DOE said that declarations of red alert status over the Luzon grid could be frequent during El Niño. However, the department assured that this won’t lead to manual load dropping or rotational brownouts.

“Assuming mayroong normal condition tayo, mayroon tayong nakikitang manaka-nakang red alert for Luzon, but this does not necessarily translate to manual load dropping,” said Marasigan.

(Assuming we have normal conditions, we foresee occasional red alerts for Luzon, but this does not necessarily translate to manual load dropping.)

A red alert status is issued when power supply is insufficient to meet consumer demand and the transmission grid’s regulating requirement.

On the other hand, the DOE is awaiting for the completion of the planned auxiliary services to boost the energy reserves at the Visayas grid.

“Pagdating sa Visayas, this is the one we are looking at because we have to ensure the completion ng immediate and interim solutions, ito yung mga battery storage system natin at power barges, to be ready by the first quarter of 2027,” said Marasigan.

(When it comes to Visayas, this is what we are looking closely at because we have to ensure the completion of immediate and interim solutions—these are our battery storage systems and power barges—so they are ready by the first quarter of 2027.)

“Kung mayroon tayong mga auxiliary services, na available coming from these facilities, the added capacities, then we’ll be able to greatly reduce the potential red and yellow alerts,” he added. “Pero kung hindi matutuloy yung mga additional capacities, we will have a substantial number of red alerts, hindi lang yellow alerts.”

(If we have auxiliary services available coming from these facilities, along with the added capacities, then we’ll be able to greatly reduce potential red and yellow alerts. But if those additional capacities do not materialize, we will have a substantial number of red alerts, not just yellow alerts.)

To address the thinning energy reserves in the Visayas grid, the DOE earlier ordered the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines to install over 250 megawatts of battery energy storage system.

The DOE is also mulling to tap liquid fuel facilities to help provide additional power to the grid.

Meanwhile, the chances of red alert status declaration over Mindanao grid are likely to occur by late next year.

“Pagdating sa Mindanao, very limited ‘yung mga yellow alerts and kung magkaroon ng tsansa ng magkaroon ng red alert, it will be towards the end of the year na po, last quarter na po ng 2027,” said Marasigan.

(When it comes to Mindanao, yellow alerts are very limited, and if there is a chance of having a red alert, it will be towards the end of the year already, in the last quarter of 2027.) —RF, GMA News