Wike, Obi and Tinubu: The Three Gladiators of Nigerian Politics, By Sunday Adelaja

In my last article I called Nyesom Wike the El-Terrible of Nigerian politics.

In this article I want to make a case for the three most consequential political figures in the modern political era of the Nigerian state.

Peter Obi like him or hate him has been able to firmly plant himself into the conversation when we speak about Nigeria’s politics. The third person in this triad is the master of the game himself, the Jagaban of Nigeria who is also the sitting President of our beloved country.

Nyesom Wike’s Rainbow Coalition, Peter Obi’s Obidient phenomenon, and Bola Tinubu’s long political architecture reveal three very different approaches to building political power in Nigeria.

Nigeria’s contemporary political landscape offers an extraordinary study in the difference between

1. Popularity which is personified by Peter Obi
2. Coalition-building personified by Nyesom Wike
3. Finally political machinery which is personified in President Bola Ahmed Tinubu

Few figures illustrate that distinction better than Peter Obi, Nyesom Wike and Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Obi demonstrated that an individual politician could generate an enormous popular following outside the traditional political establishment.

Wike demonstrated something different: that a politician could preserve leverage across party boundaries and convert relationships with political actors into an organised coalition.

Tinubu, over a much longer period, demonstrated how a politician can build a political machine capable of moving from regional influence to national power.

The emerging Wike’s Rainbow Coalition therefore provides an interesting lens through which to reconsider the political phenomenon that surrounded Obi in 2023.

OBI: The Gladiator

Peter Obi entered the 2023 presidential election on the platform of the Labour Party and transformed an electorally marginal party into a major presidential vehicle.

The official INEC results recorded 6,101,533 votes for Obi, compared with 8,794,726 for Bola Tinubu and 6,984,520 for Atiku Abubakar.

The significance was not simply the number of votes.

Obi’s campaign brought together
1. Young voters, professionals,
2. Former PDP supporters,
3. Labour Party activists,
4. Christian constituencies,
5. South-East voters,
6. Sections of the South-South
7. Voters who wanted an alternative to the APC and PDP.

A 2024 analysis in The Guardian Nigeria described this as a broad but fragile coalition rather than a fully institutionalised movement. The analysis also noted that Labour’s presidential vote collapsed dramatically in the subsequent governorship elections, illustrating the difference between a presidential personality-driven coalition and a durable political organization. Now this is where I believe Peter Obi needs to humble himself and learn one or two things from both WIKE and Jagaban.

As a matter of fact the rainbow coalition dynamic emergence could have belonged to Peter Obi if he knows the political nuances of Wike and Jagaban.

At the end of the 2023 elections Peter Obi’s position was the strongest of all politicians in the country. The clout was enormous and he could have easily taken advantage of it to build a similar coalition to the rainbow coalition.

That distinction is crucial.

Obi had something extraordinarily valuable in 2023: millions of politically energised Nigerians who were personally connected to him rather than deeply attached to the Labour Party.
The question is what happened to that political capital afterward.

Wike: The Gladiator

Wike represents almost the opposite model.

His principal political asset has never been mass social-media enthusiasm. It has been
1. relationships,
2. institutional knowledge,
3. political bargaining
4. and the ability to maintain relevance across competing political camps.

The clearest demonstration was the PDP’s G5 crisis before the 2023 election.

Wike and four other PDP governors refused to support Atiku Abubakar, the PDP presidential candidate, despite remaining PDP governors.

That was a remarkable political position.

Wike demonstrated that: A politician does not necessarily need to control the largest party to possess significant political leverage.

The G5 gave him bargaining power because the governors controlled state-level political structures and electoral resources.

The current Rainbow Coalition is an evolution of that approach.

Wike now says the coalition is designed to support Tinubu’s 2027 presidential campaign while remaining separate from the APC. He has specifically argued that parties participating in the coalition should remain free to field candidates for governorship and legislative elections.

That proposition is politically significant because it separates presidential support from party loyalty at other levels.

And this is precisely why some APC governors are concerned.

The Progressive Governors’ Forum has rejected political arrangements that could weaken APC candidates or party structures.

Wike’s response has essentially been:

You cannot demand that politicians support your presidential candidate and simultaneously dictate every other political choice they make.

Whether one agrees with that proposition is a political judgment. But as a piece of political strategy, it is sophisticated because it exploits the fact that Nigerian voters can vote differently for different offices.

Why the Rainbow Coalition is Causing Concern

The important point is that the Rainbow Coalition does not currently constitute a proven alternative national electoral machine.

That should not be overstated.

But the concern among some APC governors is understandable from an organizational perspective.

Governors normally operate through:

• State party structures;
• Local government structures;
• Ward organisations;
• Legislators;
• Political appointees;
• Traditional political relationships;
• Candidates and aspirants.

Wike’s model introduces another possibility:
A presidential campaign can be supported by a cross-party network that is not completely dependent upon the formal APC structure.
That potentially creates a second channel of political mobilization.

Recent report describes the disagreement as a contest over political machinery and influence rather than simply a disagreement about whether Tinubu should be supported.
There are also reports that some APC politicians are considering alternative relationships to counter Wike’s network.

Tinubu: The Gladiator

Tinubu’s political achievement has to be understood over decades rather than through one election cycle.
He built political influence in Lagos, developed a succession network, participated in the evolution of Alliance for Democracy into the Action Congress of Nigeria and subsequently played a major role in the formation of the APC.

His influence was therefore not simply: “Tinubu ran for president and won.”

It was:

1. Build political infrastructure
2. Develop political relationships
3. Preserve influence
4. Participate in a national coalition
5. Become a national power broker
6. Eventually seek the presidency.

If you carefully study what WIKE is doing he is slowly building the same type of relationship and political mechanism as Tinubu did when he was not yet the President. My advice to Obi or any South-easterner vying to become the president of Nigeria to follow in the same or similar pathway. A general popularity alone won’t win you the presidency.

This was proven by Muhammadu Buhari’s examples of failure until he was able to build a bridge with other political influences hence the structure that won him the presidential elections.

I remember that a similar situation was obtainable in the United States when Obama was hugely popular like Peter Obi today, yet that popularity couldn’t win him the elections until he was able to build a grassroots movement and coalition that swept across the nation like a whirlwind, bringing to power the first minority black President in the history of America.

Al Jazeera’s account of Tinubu’s political career highlights his role in the APC merger that helped bring Muhammadu Buhari to power in 2015 and his earlier development of a Lagos-centered political network.
The 2015 APC victory was particularly important because it demonstrated that Nigeria’s opposition could overcome the PDP’s long national dominance through a political merger.
Tinubu was not merely a candidate inside an existing machine.

He was one of the politicians who helped construct the machine.

That distinction matters.

In this article, I try to highlight the personalities shaping the political landscape of Nigeria. They are called the gladiators and I pointed out the reasons for their power.

Popularity, which is personified by Peter Obi. Coalition-building, personified by NYESOM WIKE. Finally, political machinery, which is personified in President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

In conclusion, I see that WIKE is already building a coalition that could culminate in a national power dominance. Peter Obi already has the popularity and acceptance that WIKE does not enjoy, but to win national elections, you also need a formidable mechanism or structure.

If Obi could add this to his popularity he will be unbeatable in any elections in Nigeria. In my next article I will be discussing the lessons these great sons of Nigeria could learn from each other. For The Love of God, Church and Nation

Sunday Adelaja is a Nigerian born leader, transformation strategist, pastor and innovator. He was based in Ukraine.