Thailand may not reach 40 million tourists again until 2031 or later

BANGKOK – Thailand may have to wait until 2031 or later to welcome 40 million foreign tourists annually again, as the country’s tourism industry struggles to regain its pre-pandemic momentum amid growing competition from regional rivals, particularly Vietnam.

A survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) found that only 10.6% of tourism operators believed Thailand could return to 40 million annual visitors by 2029.

Meanwhile, 32.2% expected the milestone to be reached in 2031-2032, while 30.4% believed it would take until after 2032. Another 9.1% feared Thailand might never reach 40 million visitors again.

Thailand welcomed nearly 40 million foreign tourists in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted international travel.

Thanavath Phonvichai, UTCC President and Chief Adviser to its Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting, warned that Thailand was losing its competitive edge to regional rivals, particularly Vietnam, which offers new tourist attractions, competitive prices and expanding international flight connections.

UTCC forecasts that Thailand will receive approximately 31.5 million foreign tourists in 2026, down 4.5% from nearly 33 million last year.

Arrivals are expected to recover by 7.9% to 34 million in 2027, generating approximately 1.632 trillion baht in tourism revenue, although the university warned that the target remained uncertain.

During the first nine months of 2026, foreign arrivals fell 3.8% to 23.2 million. South Korean visitors dropped 25.4%, while Malaysian arrivals declined 15.2%. Chinese arrivals, however, rose 15.2%.

Thanavath said Thailand must address weaknesses in tourism competitiveness, including flight connectivity, value for money and safety perceptions, warning that the country’s traditional strengths in hospitality alone were no longer enough to attract international visitors.