Bowl projections: Texas surge continues, Florida debuts as SEC puts five teams in CFP bracket

The College Football Playoff Selection Committee added another data point this week to its process —  a metric evaluating conference strength. This essentially gives leagues like the SEC and Big Ten, which entered the weekend with 17 combined teams inside the AP poll, greater influence in the at-large conversation later this season.

It couldn't have come at a better time for the SEC coming out of Saturday's record-setting slate, which included four matchups featuring ranked teams and three new teams falling from the ranks of the unbeaten.

The new metric clears the path for the SEC to potentially boast five selections in the 12-team bracket a few months from now as long as national perception and league strength hold. This comes in the wake of several SEC coaches this week complaining about the league's move to a nine-game conference schedule and how much it increases the likelihood of a multi-loss finish.

Top-ranked Texas upended No. 14 Tennessee on Saturday and already toppled then-No. 1 Ohio State earlier this season. The Longhorns still have to play resurgent Florida — who will move into the top 15 after beating fourth-ranked Ole Miss — Mississippi State, Missouri, LSU, Texas A&M and the Rebels.

"It starts with Texas playing seven top-25 teams left," LSU coach Lane Kiffin said prior to the Tigers' win over Texas A&M on Saturday night. "Then you have other conferences — and I'm not ripping on any school. I'm just saying these are the facts. You have a Big 12 school that doesn't play one ranked team the rest of the year, and you have an ACC team that plays zero ranked teams the rest of the year."

We've updated our playoff bracket projections and full list of bowl games after Week 4. Significant changes include the Big 12 now being a one-bid league in the CFP, a fifth SEC team added to the mix and a new projected top-four seed from the Big Ten.

Cricket Celebration

Projection: South Carolina State vs. Alabama State

Salute to Veterans

Projection: Toledo vs. Louisiana Tech

The real season begins for Louisiana Tech next weekend against Army before Sun Belt play starts on Oct. 10 at home against Louisiana. The Bulldogs scored 80 points against Northwestern State in the opener before getting dump-trucked by LSU and Baylor on the road entering Week 4's open date. We'll know more about this squad's postseason hopes over the next two games against comparable opponents.

Frisco Football Classic

Projection: UConn vs. Louisiana

Boca Raton 

Projection: Liberty vs. Tulsa

Thursday night's win at Coastal Carolina pushed Jamey Chadwell and Liberty to 3-1 entering Conference USA play in Week 5 against Delaware in a special Friday night road tilt. The Flames' only loss came in the fourth quarter of the opener at JMU, which remains unblemished through four games under first-year coach Billy Napier.

Gasparilla

Projection: Kentucky vs. USF

Oddsmakers set Kentucky's win total at 5.5 in Will Stein's first season, and the Wildcats (3-1) are already halfway to eclipsing the total. Thanks to a 31-21 victory at Texas A&M in Week 3, this team is confident ahead of their return to SEC play up next at South Carolina. We laid out five reasons in July why Kentucky could be one of college football's most-improved teams, and thus far, the Wildcats are proving just that.

Myrtle Beach

Projection: South Alabama vs. Delaware

Potato 

Projection: UNLV vs. UMass

Puerto Rico 

Projection: Ohio vs. Georgia State

Cure 

Projection: Western Michigan vs. JMU

Independence 

Projection: Washington State vs. Oklahoma State

New Orleans

Projection: Appalachian State vs. Jacksonville State

Armed Forces 

Projection: Baylor vs. Army 

Dave Aranda's fighting to keep his job at Baylor. The Bears have won three straight since the loss to Auburn in Atlanta during opening weekend and should feel confident heading to Arizona State next. Quarterback DJ Lagway returned from injury for Saturday's Big 12 win over Colorado, and if he can stay healthy, it gives the Bears a puncher's chance to finish in the top half of the league standings.

Poinsettia 

Projection: Oregon State vs. Washington

Frisco Bowl

Projection: Florida State vs. Memphis

It'll take a few November wins and potentially sticking with Mike Norvell longer than intended, but the Seminoles do look bowl-worthy after splitting four games — both losses coming to nationally ranked competition. There's no quit yet in Tallahassee after Saturday's victory over Central Arkansas, and quarterback Ashton Daniels is at least keeping this offense on schedule with a penchant for big plays through the air.

New Mexico 

Projection: UTSA vs. New Mexico

Hawaii

Projection: North Dakota State vs. Fresno State

Pinstripe

Projection: Virginia vs. Northwestern

Northwestern will upset a top-15 team in Big Ten play this season; it's only a matter of when. Friday night's effort at Indiana is worthy of applause and proved this team is going to be a tough out in conference play with Aidan Chiles at quarterback and Chip Kelly dialing it up offensively.

Fenway 

Projection: Virginia Tech vs. FAU

Mayo

Projection: Duke vs. Wisconsin

Do the 4-0 Blue Devils have your attention yet? Miami is the only remaining opponent ranked inside the top 25 that stands in Duke's way of getting back to the ACC Championship Game under Manny Diaz. And running back Nate Sheppard might be the most-talented under-the-radar player in the country with over 600 yards on the ground already. The Badgers have won three straight since opening the season with a loss against Notre Dame, a major step in the right direction for the program under Luke Fickell after Saturday's comeback victory at Penn State.

68 Ventures 

Projection: Troy vs. Air Force

Cactus 

Projection: Nebraska vs. TCU

Military

Projection: Clemson vs. Tulane

The Tigers aren't dead yet. Friday night's win at California pushed Clemson to 2-0 in the ACC on the strength of a decisive punt return touchdown from Bryant Wesco Jr. The game against Miami in Death Valley next weekend looked like a one-sided affair a few weeks ago, but that was before Dabo Swinney's squad began playing with confidence.

Birmingham

Projection: Vanderbilt vs. UAB

The Commodores might be one of the SEC's last teams to hit the necessary six wins for bowl eligibility, but they're going to get there in November with five-star freshman Jared Curtis continuing to develop with every rep. There are still six top-25 teams on the slate for Vanderbilt, so he'll face plenty of live rounds in his first season. Matchups with Arkansas and Kentucky in October are must-wins.

Pop-Tarts

Projection: Louisville vs. Houston

The Cardinals were a serious CFP threat after the momentum-changing win over SMU in the ACC opener, but Saturday's home loss to Wake Forest sounded alarms for this team defensively. The loss to Ole Miss should age well, but the Cardinals no longer control their own destiny in the league title picture.

Alamo

Projection: Texas Tech vs. UCLA

Moving off the Red Raiders' wagon this week as my projected Big 12 champion. Maybe it speaks more about the wealth of decent teams in the conference than expected this fall, but I just haven't seen enough from Texas Tech to think this is going to be a 13-0 conference champion in December. The losses are coming soon in conference play, largely due to inconsistent quarterback play. 

Gator 

Projection: Pittsburgh vs. LSU

In what amounted to a CFP elimination game of sorts for the Tigers against Texas A&M, Kiffin's team lived to see another day after bouncing back from a previous loss to Ole Miss. However, Florida is not slowing down, and there are other SEC unbeaten teams ahead of the Tigers right now in the CFP pecking order.

Music City

Projection: Michigan vs. Texas A&M

ReliaQuest 

Projection: Penn State vs. Missouri

The Nittany Lions' home loss to Wisconsin was a stunner after the Badgers scored two touchdowns in the final 3:31 to prevail. That's a critical setback for Penn State, who fell out of our bracket projection this week and into this bowl game in Tampa against an SEC team.

Sun 

Projection: SMU vs. Arizona

Las Vegas

Projection: USC vs. Oklahoma

Another opportunity wasted for Lincoln Riley and the Trojans. USC is now 5-15 under Riley against top-25 competition following its loss to Oregon, one that dampens Big Ten title hopes with Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana still left. It's only fitting he could meet his former program during bowl season. The Sooners were once ranked No. 10 this season and now find themselves outside of the poll after a bad showing between the hedges. They'll get an open date to try and fix horrid offensive efficiency before Red River with No. 1 Texas.

Texas

Projection: West Virginia vs. Auburn

Citrus

Projection: Iowa vs. Tennessee

The Hawkeyes are CFP believers after a huge win at Michigan with a second on the clock, one of the best of Kirk Ferentz's career as a road underdog. Tennessee quarterback Faizon Brandon's loss to Texas was his first since his sophomore year of high school, but he did give the Vols a chance at the end of the game. Brandon led a 10-play, 80-yard touchdown drive to pull within three points in the final 90 seconds, but that's as close as his team would get thanks to the Longhorns' pass rush.

First Responder

Projection: Iowa State vs. North Texas

Liberty

Projection: Kansas State vs. Mississippi State

Arizona 

Projection: Miami (Ohio) vs. San Jose State

Holiday

Projection: Wake Forest vs. Utah

Jake Dickert's name is circulating for bigger jobs based on what he's doing with the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest's road win over 16th-ranked Louisville was a head-turner nationally and puts this team back in the ACC conversation moving forward.

College Football Playoff 

First round

Projection: (9) BYU at (8) Alabama

BYU is the only Big 12 team in this week's CFP projection given Texas Tech's continued passing-game worries. Utah's a threat, too. The Crimson Tide handled South Carolina with ease, but Alabama's five-game gauntlet against ranked competition starts next week against Mississippi State on the road and concludes on Nov. 7 in Baton Rouge. That will be season-defining for one of five SEC teams in this week's projection.

Projection: (10) Oregon at (7) Florida

Oregon could be one of those teams fighting for at-large CFP supremacy down the road, so don't sell all your stock on the Ducks just yet after Saturday's win at USC. All they have to do is beat UCLA next month, then split remaining matchups with Ohio State and Michigan to get to 10 wins.

How about those Gators? Perhaps the SEC's most surprising unbeaten after Week 4, Jon Sumrall is ahead of schedule in Gainesville and has his team moving into our CFP projection for the first time this season. Looking forward, Florida plays Missouri, Texas and Georgia over the next five weeks.

Projection: (11) Ole Miss at (6) Indiana

We're going to see a three-loss team from the SEC or Big Ten getting into the bracket as the last team in this season, but guessing which squad that will be in late September remains challenging. No need to fret for Ole Miss after the loss at Florida, but the Rebels did drop a few spots in our projection to the last-team-in designation.

Texas, Georgia and Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl remain the most important contests left on the slate. Win two of those and the Rebels will be voted in without worry. Indiana slides this week to Big Ten projected runner-up status after a somewhat alarming win against Northwestern. 

Projection: (12) Boise State at (5) Texas

Boise State's blowout of Western Michigan takes another Group of Six hopeful out of the mix. If the Longhorns didn't have college football's toughest schedule remaining, we'd have them as a top-four seed here as the SEC favorite following a hard-fought win at Neyland Stadium. This is one of college football's best defenses after blanking Ohio State in the second half earlier this month, then keeping Tennessee's offense out of the end zone for 3.5 quarters Saturday afternoon before a late flurry. The offseason hire of Will Muschamp by Steve Sarkisian was a home run, and if Colin Simmons stays healthy, this team is going to be a tough out in the CFP.

Quarterfinals

Peach  

Projection: (8) Alabama vs. (1) Miami

All of a sudden, Miami's 33-20 win at Wake Forest last week looks better, right? The Demon Deacons are serious, and the Hurricanes have a quarterback in Darian Mensah who has thrown more touchdown passes than incompletions over his first four starts at Miami.

Cotton  

Projection: (7) Florida vs. (2) Georgia

Imagine the hype for this game if we get Gators-Bulldogs in a CFP quarterfinal?

Rose  

Projection: (6) Indiana vs. (3) Ohio State

Down to RB3 this season due to injury, the Hoosiers are hoping Turbo Richard's high ankle sprain suffered in Friday's win over Northwestern is not a long-term deal. Lee Beebe Jr.'s 203-yard performance in relief was impressive, but Indiana is on thin ice in terms of backfield depth. The Buckeyes won their Big Ten opener against Illinois after Jeremiah Smith found the end zone three times in the first half. Next week's trip to Iowa could be tricky for Ryan Day's team, especially if his defense keeps giving up chunk plays.

Fiesta

Projection: (5) Texas vs. (4) Notre Dame 

Few tests this fall for the Fighting Irish may come back to haunt this team in the postseason, whereas Texas will be battle-tested and ready for anything Notre Dame brings to the table.