Unexplained wealth of VP may hit P1.5 billion, says analyst

MANILA, Philippines — Forensic financial analyst Alexander Cabrera on Monday said Vice President Sara Duterte’s unexplained wealth could reach P1.5 billion, nearly double his initial estimate of P817.87 million, if he included P475 million in confidential funds and adopted less conservative assessments of questioned transactions involving the Anti-Money Laundering Council (AMLC) and GenCorp Industries Inc.

Cabrera, the prosecution’s expert witness in Duterte’s impeachment trial, said the additional amounts could include P100 million in questioned AMLC transactions and P250 million involving GenCorp.

“Almost double … P1.5 billion. That will be unexplained wealth,” Cabrera told the Senate impeachment court when presiding officer Francis “Chiz” Escudero asked how high the estimate could go without the analyst’s conservative approach.

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The P1.5-billion figure was a possible upper estimate, not a replacement for Cabrera’s original computation of P817,874,867 in unexplained wealth from 2022 to 2025.

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Cabrera’s testimony capped the prosecution’s financial evidence under Article II of the impeachment complaint, which accuses Duterte of amassing unexplained wealth and failing to properly disclose her assets in her statements of assets, liabilities and net worth (SALNs).

Cabrera said discrepancies between Duterte’s declared assets and financial records, alongside questionable reporting by companies linked to her and husband Manases Carpio, indicated possible deliberate concealment of wealth.

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Senator-judge Risa Hontiveros asked whether these patterns suggested intentional concealment. Cabrera cited SALN underreporting and corporate financial statements showing substantial profits despite small capital, or significant revenues despite reported losses.

These were “telltale signs” of potentially fraudulent reporting, he said.

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Cabrera, a lawyer, said the issue was not merely whether assets had been omitted but whether their value was manifestly disproportionate to lawful income, citing Supreme Court rulings he had reviewed.

“The revenue is huge, the capital is small… yet the bottom line is a loss,” he said, describing the financial patterns in some companies.

Chiz’s test

Escudero tested Cabrera’s P817.87-million estimate by asking how much would remain if income attributed to the couple’s business interests were excluded.

Cabrera attributed P212.63 million, or 25.9 percent of the total, to GenCorp. Another P142.2 million, or 17.3 percent, came from Metro Chow King Foods Corp. and Cale88 Foods Corp.

Even after removing those amounts, P463,046,459—or 56.6 percent of the original estimate—would remain unexplained based on bank accounts and insurance policies, Escudero said.

“That’s correct,” Cabrera replied in Filipino.

The exchange supported the prosecution’s argument that the alleged unexplained wealth extended beyond the couple’s business interests to other financial assets and transactions.

Cabrera said his team calculated the P817.87 million by comparing cash assets declared in Duterte’s SALNs with year-end balances in bank accounts held by the Vice President, Carpio and their joint accounts.

His report identified undeclared cash of P60.21 million in 2022, P80.70 million in 2023, P23.17 million in 2024 and P43.61 million in 2025, totaling P207.70 million over four years.

The broader estimate also covered insurance policies and questioned income linked to the couple’s businesses.

P41M withdrawal ‘unusual’

Cabrera flagged a P41-million cash withdrawal from Carpio’s accounts on Aug. 6, 2024, saying the transactions were completed in about an hour and 13 minutes.

He called the withdrawal “unusual” because the money was taken in cash rather than through a manager’s check or bank transfer that would leave a clearer transaction trail.

“For the ordinary person, P41 million in cash is unusual,” he told Hontiveros, adding that the closely spaced transactions suggested urgency.

A lack of supporting documents or a clear trail was itself a warning sign in forensic analysis, he said.

Senator-judge Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan noted that the withdrawal came six days after drug charges were filed against Carpio in connection with the so-called magnetic lifter case. He also cited Duterte’s resignation as education secretary on July 19, 2024.

The testimony did not establish a connection between the withdrawal and those events, but the timing prompted further questions.

Cabrera also said he examined Cale88, where the repeated movement of money into and out of the company despite continuing losses could indicate possible money laundering.

He described it as a “revolving door” pattern which is a symptom warranting scrutiny, not proof by itself that money laundering had occurred.

‘Numbers do not lie’

Responding to a query by Senator-judge Lito Lapid on what the prosecution wanted the public to take away from the evidence presented, House prosecutor Chel Diokno said the testimonies and documents presented under Article II, which concerns the Vice President’s alleged unexplained wealth, underscore that honest and transparent public officials have nothing to hide.

He said public officials can project an image of simplicity by eating at roadside eateries and claiming they have nothing to hide in their SALN. But bank statements, tax records, corporate filings and SALNs provide a way to test whether that image matches her declared finances, he added.

“The numbers do not lie,” he said, citing records from banks, the AMLC, the Bureau of Internal Revenue and the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Diokno said some bank documents were sent directly by the banks to the impeachment court, rather than passing through the prosecution, and could be independently verified.

He said the case concerned public trust, accountability and whether a high-ranking official remained fit to hold office.

The prosecution also cited an AMLC report involving P4.4 billion in flagged transactions associated with Duterte and her relatives.

During cross-examination, defense lawyer Kristine Ferrer questioned Cabrera about confidentiality provisions under the Anti-Money Laundering Act, the Bank Secrecy Law and the National Internal Revenue Code, asking whether he had considered possible legal violations in furnishing the records.

Cabrera said he was not concerned, explaining that his task was to receive, examine and analyze the documents. He said the matter had already been discussed during proceedings in the House of Representatives.

Fabricated evidence?

Duterte dismissed the prosecution’s evidence, saying its case was collapsing and accusing the panel of inventing evidence.

“Their case is falling apart. That’s why they’re rushing it—because they have nothing left to say,” she told reporters in Filipino on the sidelines of the 91st anniversary celebration of the Office of the Vice President.

She also attacked the impeachment complaint’s supporting documents.

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“Right from the start, the impeachment complaint had no annexes and no attached pieces of evidence. Then they fabricated evidence,” she said. —With reports from Gabriel Pabico Lalu, Isabelle Pechay, and Dianne Sampang