Polymarket: Gap between Eisenkot's Yashar, Netanyahu's Likud widens in former IDF chief's favor

Polymarket figures reflect the prices of prediction-market contracts, which change with trading activity and can therefore move quickly.

Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party continued to strengthen in election prediction markets on Tuesday, with Polymarket showing a significant gap between Yashar and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud on which party will win the most seats in the Knesset. 

The market currently prices Yashar's chances at about 62%, compared with about 39% for Likud. This is the highest figure we found in the available market record for Eisenkot's party.

The shift has been sharp and has happened in just a few weeks. Polymarket data from about a month ago showed Likud leading with 59%, while Yashar stood at just 41%. Since then, the picture in the market has reversed, with a gap of nearly 20 percentage points in Likud's favor turning into an advantage of more than 20 points for Yashar.

Trading volume in the market on which party will win the most Knesset seats has already surpassed $300,000. Under Polymarket's rules, the market will be resolved based on the party or electoral list that wins the most seats in the election, rather than on which candidate ultimately succeeds in forming a coalition and becoming prime minister. Polymarket currently lists total volume in the market at just over $301,000.

The trend on Polymarket is also broadly consistent with the latest polling picture, although the question of who will be able to form a government remains more complicated and depends on the distribution of seats between the political blocs and the ability to assemble a Knesset majority.

Eisenkot tops Netanyahu on who will serve as PM in separate Polymarket

Eisenkot also leads in a separate market on who will serve as prime minister after the election. Polymarket currently prices his chances at about 52% to 53%, compared with about 29% for Netanyahu.

Polymarket figures, however, are not public opinion polls. They reflect the prices of prediction-market contracts, which change with trading activity and can therefore move quickly. The markets on the largest party and the identity of the next prime minister also measure different outcomes: Winning the most Knesset seats does not by itself determine which candidate will ultimately be able to form a governing coalition.