Texas poll: James Talarico holds a narrow advantage for Senate while Greg Abbott leads for governor

Democrat James Talarico holds a narrow advantage over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, but within the margin of error, according to a new poll, while Republican Gov. Greg Abbott holds a wider lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the contest for governor, as economic issues and immigration drive voter decision-making.

The new NBC5 Dallas/Telemundo Station Group poll shows Talarico at 46% and Paxton at 43%, within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Another 8% of potential voters were still up for grabs in the race — just as tens of millions of dollars in advertising from Republican groups began to flood into the state.

Abbott took 48% to Hinojosa’s 41% in the gubernatorial race, a broader edge that’s also technically within the margin of error.

The survey effort also zeroed in on Latinos in Texas, shows how that group of voters has swung back to the left since President Donald Trump won 55% of the Hispanic vote in Texas in 2024, according to NBC News exit polling.

Both Talarico and Hinojosa led with Latinos by double digits, with Talarico up 18 points (54%-36%) and Hinojosa up 13 points (52%-39%).

But that may still fall short of the benchmark the candidates would need to pull out a victory in a state that hasn’t elected a statewide Democrat in three decades. At a UnidosUS conference in August, Hinojosa indicated a previous Democratic marker at 64% would be enough to win.

“To give you a sense of our importance in this election, in 2018, the closest a Democrat came to flipping Texas in recent history, Beto O’Rourke ran against Ted Cruz and he got 64% of the Latino vote,” Hinojosa said then. “When I get 64% of the Latino vote in 2026, I win.”

Hispanic voters hold enormous electoral power in Texas, making up about a third of the state’s electorate.

The survey included 401 Hispanic likely voters in Texas, who were interviewed live by telephone by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. from Sept. 8-12. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 points. The same firm conducted the broader survey of 625 likely voters in Texas Sept. 8-10.

In both surveys, economic factors ranked the highest when it came to voter motivations, with immigration issues ranking the second-highest for Hispanic voters.

Among all voters, the top issues identified were the economy and jobs at 24%,

inflation and the cost of living at 23%, immigration and the border at 18%, and healthcare at 10%.

Among Hispanic voters, inflation and the cost of living topped their concerns, with 33% saying it had the greatest influence on their vote. The next highest concern was immigration and the border at 23%, followed by the economy and jobs at 19%, and healthcare at 9%. Crime and public safety, education and housing all ranked in the single digits.

Overall, Texas voters lined up strongly in favor of restrictions on gender transition-related medical treatments for minors, with 63% supporting and 29% opposing restrictions. On a related question, 61% of respondents believed students should only use the bathroom for the sex they were assigned at birth and 8% saying students should be allowed to use the bathroom for the gender with which they identify. Most of the remainder said schools should provide gender-neutral bathrooms.

Notably, however, social issues such as abortion and trans rights ranked low on the list of issues that voters said would influence their candidate choices. Overall, abortion and trans rights ranked at 6% importance among all groups and at 4% among Hispanic voters.

That low mark is significant, as Republican super PACs have already spent millions of dollars on TV and digital ads, particularly targeting Talarico, with messaging squarely focused on trans issues.

Voters statewide were more or less split on whether Texas should cooperate with ICE on vehicle pursuits and traffic stops. While Hispanic voters were about evenly split on the question — 45% saying Texas should cooperate, 48% saying it shouldn’t –– white voters were far more favorable toward cooperation: 62% in support of cooperation, 32% against it.

It was the reverse for Black voters. Of those surveyed, 66% of Black voters say the state should not cooperate with ICE on the stops and 24% said it should.

Immigration questions broke sharply along ideological lines.

In the survey of all Texas voters, 93% of Republicans said local police officers should be allowed to question individuals about their immigration status during lawful encounters, while 11% of Democrats and 50% of independents supported the policy.

The surveys explored other areas, including a question on a voucher program that’s been controversial in the state. Sixty-three percent of those queried said they opposed allowing state tax dollars to be used to pay for private school tuition, with 30% supporting it and another 7% undecided statewide.