Analysts find looming launch crisis is "more severe" than anticipated

Another mitigating factor could be the rapid acceleration of Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket launch cadence. Henry said Quilty adopted a conservative forecast, predicting eight New Glenn launches in 2028, 12 in 2029, and 16 in 2030.

“I’d be happy to be proven wrong,” he said. “And Blue has been in development for so long, they could come out of the gate swinging.”

Blue Origin, he noted, is building the production capacity for up to 150 upper stages annually, but it will of course take time to launch such a large rocket at a high rate.

A final wild card is the US military. The current phase of the national security launch program has two lanes. The first lane is for missions with a higher risk tolerance. Any company that has launched a rocket successfully a single time is eligible to bid on these missions. For now, this includes Falcon rockets, New Glenn, and United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan, but a new generation of medium-lift rockets should join within the next year or two. Lane 2 is reserved for SpaceX and United Launch Alliance.

Earlier this year, the US Space Force announced a dramatic increase in forecast demand for both Lane 1 (from an estimated 30 to 60 launches to about 170) and Lane 2 (from 54 launches to 79 launches). These missions would be ordered between 2025 and 2029.

This surge in military launch demand was not included in Quilty’s calculations, Henry said, because he believes the US military will be able to require SpaceX to perform launches it deems national priorities. Moreover, he said, SpaceX is already building a number of these satellites, such as the Space-Based Airborne Moving Target Indicator constellation.

“I think the US government will compel them to do this,” Henry said. “SpaceX is already building a non-trivial number of these satellites.”