Forget Nvidia. Anthropic is the AI trade’s litmus test

• By Shuli Ren / Bloomberg Opinion

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For an industry that needs to spend at least US$30 billion just to build a data center that handles one gigawatt of computing power, access to financing is key.

Two forces are pulling the trillion-dollar artificial intelligence (AI) trade in opposite directions, creating a tension that comes at a critical time for the industry. Nvidia Corp, the sector’s most valuable company, is embroiled in a leadership crisis after co-founder Jensen Huang (黃仁勳) admitted to having an affair with a woman that US officials believe to be a Chinese spy. Meanwhile, optimism is in the air as Anthropic PBC is looking to raise as much as US$90 billion from an initial public offering next week. Bankers are weighing plans to increase the price and the order book is already multiple times oversubscribed. The maker of the Claude chatbot is expected to start trading on Thursday.

Huang’s possible removal from the helm of Nvidia is sending shockwaves across the AI supply chain. He is the biggest advocate of vendor financing, pulling forward chip demand by providing support to nascent AI labs as well as data-center developers. Just two months ago, Anthropic signed a US$35 billion cloud-computing deal with Nvidia-backed neocloud Lambda; Nvidia — instead of Anthropic, which has a shorter credit history — is holding the lease on the data center.

Asian suppliers are particularly wary. Some of the region’s largest semiconductor firms, including South Korea’s SK Hynix Inc, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co and Japanese test-equipment maker Advantest Corp, rely on Nvidia for a substantial portion of their sales. If the company’s pace of dealmaking slows and financing for compute hits a snag, there is a real danger they would have to slash their earnings outlook.

For now, global investors are giving the AI trade the benefit of the doubt, with chip stocks stabilizing after last week’s brutal selloff. Traders are betting that a successful Anthropic debut can drown out all the negative headlines surrounding Nvidia and Huang.

The hope is that a new financing channel would open for the ultimate customers of semiconductor products: AI labs. Anthropic should soon no longer need Nvidia to backstop its computing deals, which bodes well for the sector’s supply chain.

Anthropic is tapping into the world’s deepest and most liquid pool of capital — and an IPO is just the start. Like Alphabet Inc and Meta Platforms Inc before it, the Claude chatbot maker can launch an at-the-market offering, which gives it the option to sell shares into the open market from time to time, or do private placements now that its valuation is determined by public investors. Convertible bonds, a hybrid debt security that pays low coupon rates, are on the table. While Anthropic might not receive an investment-grade rating immediately after going public, it would get more leeway with loan bankers if its stocks trade alongside the other mega-caps.

Being a publicly listed business comes with many privileges. US-based tech firms have raised at least US$220 billion from follow-on equity offerings so far this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Companies have been selling convertible bonds throughout this year; the likes of CoreWeave Inc as well as more established firms from the dotcom era, such as Akamai Technologies Inc, have been active issuers.

The AI industry would no longer need its own central bank if the US stock market welcomes a major pure-play frontier lab with open arms. However, before the baton is passed, Anthropic needs a smooth public debut first.

Shuli Ren is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asian markets. A former investment banker, she was a markets reporter for Barron’s. She is a CFA charterholder. This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.