Pick Six: Jalen Hurts could be done for the year, plus Colts fire GM Chris Ballard and Commanders-49ers picks

Hello football friends, and welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

It's not even Halloween yet, and we already have our first firing of the season. The Colts decided to dump general manager Chris Ballard on Monday in a move that came less than 24 hours after a loss to the 0-5 Titans. When you lose to a winless team, heads are going to roll. Ballard's was the first, but it might not be the last. 

Colts owner Carli Irsay-Gordon certainly sent a message to the organization by dumping Ballard, who has been the team's general manager since 2017. If you want all the details on the firing, be sure to read our full story here. I'll wait here while you guys read. 

Alright, now, let's move on to today's newsletter. We've got our standard Monday stuff plus a big update on the health of Jalen Hurts. 

As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, just click here.  

1. Jalen Hurts likely out for the season: Three things to know about QB's surprise injury

Jalen Hurts is likely going to miss the rest of the season after blood clots were discovered in his lungs over the weekend. The Eagles quarterback is now taking blood thinners, and he's expected to make a full recovery, but while he's on the blood thinners, he's not allowed to take part in any contact activity, including football. Due to blood thinners, Hurts is expected to miss "multiple months," according to Tom Pelissero, and if that timeline holds, it would sideline him for the rest of the season. 

Here's everything you need to know about the situation: 

• How the injury happened. Hurts' injury nightmare actually started in Week 4 against the Rams when he got cleated in the leg. That injury eventually escalated into a superficial vein thrombosis, which he was diagnosed with while in London getting ready for the Eagles' Week 5 game against the Jaguars. 
• Hurts wasn't allowed to sleep before the Jaguars game. After doctors in London discovered the clot, Hurts had to stay in the hospital until 4 a.m. the night before the Jags' game. He also wasn't allowed to sleep the night before the game, because doctors viewed sleep as a risk, according to NFL Network. By the time the game kicked off, Hurts had been awake for almost 36 hours. 
• The new diagnosis. After the Eagles got back to the United States, Hurts continued to undergo tests. According to his agent Nicole Lynn, the latest diagnosis is a deep vein thrombosis as well as bilateral pulmonary emboli. Basically, the clots traveled from his calf to his lung. The Eagles placed Hurts on injured reserve over the weekend. 

With Hurts now likely out for the season, the Eagles will have an interesting decision to make. They could have a fire sale and start trading players away in an effort to build next year, or they could go out and acquire a quarterback and try to win the NFC East this year. That second option might sound crazy, but the NFC East is the worst division in football, and the Eagles are still very much in the race. 

If you want the full story on Hurts' injury, we've got that here. 

2. NFL Week 6 grades: Browns are in first place in AFC North

I never thought we'd live in a world where the Browns are in first place this late in the season, but here we are. After beating the Ravens on Sunday, the Browns are in first place after Week 6 for the first time in 12 years. That was Johnny Manziel's rookie year, and not much has gone right for the Browns since then. 

Anyway, we have some grades to hand out, and we're going to start off with Cleveland's win over Baltimore. 

Browns 13-10 over Ravens

• Ravens takeaway: When you don't have Lamar Jackson, you have to play nearly perfect football to win, and the Ravens simply didn't do that here. Baltimore essentially gave this game away in the fourth quarter with a missed field goal by Tyler Loop and a fumble by Derrick Henry on back-to-back possessions. The fumble set up a short TD drive for Cleveland, tying the game at 10. The Ravens' defense also struggled in the fourth quarter. Baltimore held Cleveland to just 237 yards of offense for the game, but 130 of that came in the final quarter. The problem for the Ravens is that this was another blown fourth-quarter lead. The blown leads were one reason why John Harbaugh got fired, and Jesse Minter hasn't quite figured out how to fix the problem. Going 1-1 without Lamar Jackson isn't the worst thing, but the Ravens were a few mistakes away from going 2-0 without their starting QB, and they'll certainly kick themselves for this divisional loss. Grade: B-
• Browns takeaway: If you've seen one Browns game this season, you've seen them all: Cleveland's defense keeps the game close until the fourth quarter, and then the offense wins it with a miracle drive. And that's exactly what happened here. After surrendering 10 quick points in the first quarter, the Browns only gave up 123 yards over the final three quarters combined. Not even Derrick Henry could get going against this defense. In the fourth quarter, Deshaun Watson took over. He only threw for 164 yards in this game, but 94 of that came in the final quarter. Jerry Jeudy, who's been an afterthought this year, had his biggest game of the season with four catches for 69 yards, including a 33-yard catch that helped set up Andre Szmyt. The miracle Browns might be for real. Grade: B+

Texans 34-31 over Jaguars

• Texans takeaway: After taking a small step back in each of the past two years, C.J. Stroud looks like a quarterback who's finally ready to take a huge step forward. With the Texans' defense struggling, the offense has had to carry the load this year, and Stroud was certainly up to the task in his game, throwing for 312 yards and three touchdowns. The Texans have been looking for a No. 2 receiver behind Nico Collins, and they might have found one in Jaylin Noel, who had a monster game (four catches for 107 yards). And let's not forget about Marvin Harrison Jr. In his first game with the Texans, he looked completely comfortable out there while catching passes from his former college QB (Harrison caught three passes for 34 yards). The biggest question mark with the Texans right now is with their defense, and if that unit starts to play like it did last year, then Houston is likely going to march right back into the AFC South race after starting the season 0-4. Grade: B
• Jaguars takeaway: Travis Hunter has officially arrived. Yes, the Jags lost this game, but if there was one upside, it was Hunter. He played his most offensive snaps of the season, and it paid off on a day when he caught four passes for 59 yards. He also came up with a huge end zone interception in the fourth quarter. When the Jags traded up to draft Hunter with the second overall pick in 2025, this is the kind of performance they were hoping to get on a regular basis, and Hunter now looks like he might be able to pull that off going forward. As for the rest of the team, this was an uncharacteristically bad performance by the defense, and once again, there were too many drops on offense. However, there's no reason for this team to be panicking about anything as they head into their Week 7 bye. Grade: B-

As for the other grades that we've handed out so far in Week 6, you can check those out here. 

3. NFL Week 6 winners and losers: Giants and Rams had a rough Sunday

You can't have a week of NFL action without having winners and losers, so here are some winners and losers. Carter Bahns came up with this week's list, and we're going to check out his losers below. 

LOSERS 

• Giants. The situation in the Meadowlands is not a complete disaster, given that the Giants still lead the NFC East, but Sunday's loss hurts. There is no such thing as a "must-win" game in Week 6, but what the Giants just experienced was a defeat in a contest that held a lot of hope for New York. The opportunity to pull further ahead in a downtrodden division while playing a Saints team on a three-game losing streak escaped them. That result could haunt them down the line.
• Rams. The Rams, by way of tiebreakers, are the last-place team in the NFC West through Week 6. That is a sentence so difficult to fathom, considering their offseason successes, that it almost does not feel real. Anyone who has watched them play over the season's first month and a half understands why they hold a 2-4 record: They have looked nothing like the superstar-laden squad they are on paper. But that does not make it any easier to digest just how stunning a failure these first six weeks have been. 
• Zachariah Branch's ball security. Rule No. 1 as a punt and kick returner is to hold onto the ball. Zachariah Branch failed to follow that rule in the Atlanta Falcons' 31-23 loss to the Chicago Bears. The rookie muffed a punt and fumbled during a kickoff return, and the Bears recovered both loose balls to help them build an overwhelming 31-7 lead.

If you want to see Carter's list of winners (and a couple of other losers), be sure to click here.

4. Overreactions from Week 6: Will the Rams make the playoffs? 

Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the NFL. Personally, I overreact to everything. With that in mind, Zach Pereles decided to take a look at several things that happened during Week 6, so decide for yourself if we're all overreacting.  

Statement: The Rams won't make the playoffs playing like this.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. This is simply a non-playoff team right now. The offense has very little juice, outside of an occasional excellent play by Puka Nacua or Davante Adams. It just feels really stagnant; Stafford used play action on 37% of his dropbacks last year and averaged 8.4 yards per pass on those throws. This year, it's down to 25% and 7.2, respectively. And when a team doesn't have juice, it has little room for error. But the Rams keep making errors: penalties, turnovers, missed assignments, etc. If they lose in Week 7, it's officially panic time.

Statement: The Browns or Steelers will win the AFC North.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. Cleveland technically leads the division thanks to Sunday's 13-10 win over Lamar Jackson-less Baltimore, and Pittsburgh is second because it has a better in-division record. Sorry, Browns and Steelers fans, but neither one of you is winning the division. Cleveland's largest win this season is by four points. It lost to the Jets just last week. Deshaun Watson looked awful Sunday. The Steelers looked similarly awful, needing a late comeback to force overtime against the Baker Mayfield-less Buccaneers. As it turns out, playing against backup quarterbacks is very helpful. Both teams rank in the bottom half of most major offensive stats. The quarterback play simply isn't good enough and won't be good enough, especially when put up against Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow rather than Tyler Huntley and Jalon Daniels.

Statement: Patriots made a mistake trading for A.J. Brown. 
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. A.J. Brown's grand return from IR was ... not so grand. Three catches for 27 yards on 10 targets. Officially, he's been charged with two drops. Unofficially, given his high standards, it was probably more. He even bobbled away a Jets onside kick, but lucky for him, a teammate recovered to clinch the Patriots' 26-19 win. It's worth being concerned about the debut, but to say the trade is a bust or a mistake would be a drastic overreaction. Yes, it's been a tough start with the injury and the underwhelming return. But let's not write it off. Let's give him a week's worth of grace.

There are plenty more overreactions, and you can check them out here.

5. 11 crazy stats from Week 6: Packers and Bills are defying history

Every Sunday night, I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday, that email always includes some crazy stats about the games that were just played. 

With that in mind, here are 11 crazy stats from Week 6: 

1. Big game hunting. The Jaguars didn't win on Sunday, but Travis Hunter did have a huge game. The Jags' two-way player had a TD catch AND an interception, becoming the first player in 24 years to pull off both of those in the same game. The last player to accomplish that feat was Brian Dawkins in 2002. 
2. Bills defying history. NFL teams are 12-42 this season when giving up at least 30 points in a game, and that breaks down like this: The Bills are 4-0, while the other 31 teams are a combined 8-42. The Bills already have the second-most wins in a single season ever when giving up 30+, behind only the 2018 Rams, who won five games.  
3. Packers defying history. In the 106-year history of the NFL, only three teams have ever had a winning record through six games without having a single player hit 50 yards rushing in any of those six games: 1935 Packers, 1941 Packers and 2026 Packers. Yup, the Packers are somehow the only team to do it, and they did it again this year. 
4. Patrick Mahomes tied Tom Brady in the record book. The Chiefs QB picked up his 100th career win on Sunday, and he did that in just his 131st career game. That ties him with Tom Brady for the record of fastest QB to reach 100 wins. 
5. Walking over the competition. With 128 yards against the Chargers, Kenneth Walker III now has an NFL-high 665 on the season.  That's the most rushing yards ever through five games by a player who's with a new team, topping a mark that was set by Eric Dickerson with the Rams in 1985. 
6. Comeback kids. The Steelers managed to beat the Buccaneers on Sunday despite trailing by 13 points in the fourth quarter. With the victory, they pulled off their largest comeback win since 2002. Germie Bernard also made some NFL history by becoming the first rookie with at least 10 receptions AND an overtime TD in the same game. 
7. Bear down. The return of Caleb Williams got all the headlines this week, but the Bears also got another player back (Kyler Gordon), and he ended up making NFL history. Gordon made his season debut on Sunday, and although he only played 16 snaps, that was enough time for him to rack up three sacks, along with forcing two fumbles. That makes him the first DB with at least three sacks and two forced fumbles in a game since 2000. 
8. Cardinals building a nest in Los Angeles. The Cardinals are 2-4 this season, and the twist is that both of their wins have come at SoFi Stadium. Not only did they beat the Rams on Sunday, but they also beat the Chargers in L.A. back in Week 1. The Cardinals now have more wins at SoFi (2) this year than the Rams and Chargers combined (1). 
9. McBride has been McAwesome. With seven catches for 53 yards against the Rams, McBride became the first player in NFL history with at least seven receptions in each of his team's first six games of the season. With 49 catches through six weeks, McBride also topped Zach Ertz's record (48) for the most catches by a tight end through the first six games. 
10. Alvin Kamara joins exclusive club. With 35 receiving yards against the Giants, Kamara now has 5,024 for his career. If you combine that with his 7,370 rushing yards, he's now just the sixth player in NFL history to have at least 5,000 rushing and 5,000 receiving yards in a career. Kamara joins Christian McCaffrey and Tiki Barber, along with Pro Football Hall of Famers Marcus Allen, Marshall Faulk and Lenny Moore. 
11. Old school Campbell. Calais Campbell had a sack against the Browns on Sunday, which is only notable because of his age. Since the sack became an official stat in 1982, Campbell is just the third player over the age of 40 to record a sack, joining Clay Matthews (6.5 sacks after turning 40) and Pro Football Hall of Famer Bruce Smith (five).

If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me. 

6. Monday night preview: Picks and best bets for Commanders at 49ers

The 49ers (5-0) will be putting their undefeated record on the line against a Commanders (1-3-1) team that's looking to get its season turned around. 

The two head coaches in this game are extremely familiar with each other. Dan Quinn was the Falcons' head coach for six seasons (2015-20), and for two of those years, Kyle Shanahan was his offensive coordinator. They were coaching together in Super Bowl LI when the Falcons blew a 28-3 lead against the Patriots. So will anyone blow a 28-3 lead tonight? 

Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game: 

• Why the Commanders can win: If the Commanders have done one thing well this year, it's their ability to run the ball. This team is averaging 139.6 yards per game on the ground heading into Week 6, which is the sixth-most in the NFL. If the Commanders can run the ball, it will allow them to control the clock, keeping the 49ers and their high-powered offense off the field. The 49ers haven't really faced a mobile quarterback yet, so Jayden Daniels needs to keep San Francisco's defense on its toes by getting out of the pocket and making plays, and yup, he also needs to run. Under Dan Quinn, the Commanders are 11-3-1 when they rush for at least 150 yards, so if they can hit that magic number, that should give them a chance to pull off the upset. 
• Why the 49ers can win: There's a reason the 49ers are undefeated: They're good at everything. Brock Purdy has the highest passer rating in the NFL for any QB who's started at least five games, and he leads the NFL in TD passes with 13. Not only can the 49ers beat you with the pass, but they also average 128.6 yards per game on the ground, which ranks in the top eight in the NFL. And now, this unstoppable offense gets to play a Commanders defense that has surrendered the third-most points per game (29.8) and the fourth-most passing yards per game (255) this year. The 49ers should be able to score on this defense, and if they hit 30, it's basically over. Since the start of the 2021 season, the 49ers are 38-1 when they score 30 points or more, including the playoffs. 

You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here.

If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props. 

• ONE RECEIVING PROP I LIKE: George Kittle OVER 5.5 receptions (-102 at DraftKings): With Deebo Samuel out and Mike Evans banged up, Brock Purdy isn't going to have a lot of options Monday in the receiving game, so Kittle should see a solid share of targets. Kittle will be facing a Commanders defense that has given up the fourth-most passing yards this year. Also, opposing tight ends are averaging more than six catches per game against Washington. This seems like a solid matchup for Kittle.  
• ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Drew Stevens OVER 6.5 total points (-101 at DraftKings): The Commanders kicker has scored at least seven points in four straight games, and I feel like he can get to that number once again. Opposing teams are averaging 2.4 field goals per game against the 49ers, and if Stevens hits just two, then he'd need just one extra point to hit the over. I feel like this game will be a shootout, and that should include a lot of kicker points. 

If you're wondering how my props are doing this year, I'm 8-14 (3-8 on kicker props and 5-6 on all other props). After starting off 5-3, I'm now 3-11 on my last 14 props. That's clearly a sign that you should be fading me until further notice. 

And now, it's time for some picks. 

PICKS FOR 'MNF'

Jared Dubin's pick:  49ers 27-16 over Commanders
Jordan Dajani's pick: 49ers 28-20 over Commanders
John Breech's pick: 49ers 31-20 over Commanders
Tyler Sullivan's pick: 49ers 30-20 over Commanders
Prisco's pick: 49ers 30-21 over Commanders

Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, all seven of us are taking the 49ers to win straight-up, and six of us are taking the 49ers to cover as a 7.5-point favorite.