NESG: Election, festive demands lift Business Performance Index to 117.8pts

Nigerian Economic Summit Group, NESG yesterday said that business activity expanded strongly in September, with the Current Business Performance Index, BPI, rising to 117.8 points from 112.7 points in August, citing stronger demand for goods and services ahead of election-related activities and the year-end festive season. 

The NESG stated that in the October 2026 edition of its Business Confidence Monitor, BCM. 

The report said, “Nigeria’s business activity sustained expansionary momentum in September 2026. The Current Business Performance Index jumped to 117.8 points from 112.7 in August 2026 and 107.9 points in September 2025.”

It said,  “the rapid improvement was driven by broad-based expansion across sectors, with Trade recording the strongest performance.”

The NESG noted that “the strong performance of trade stockpiling could be largely linked to back-to-school shopping, reflected in robust demand conditions during the month.”

Looking ahead, the report said businesses remained cautiously optimistic, with the Future Business Expectations Index standing at 128.9 points, compared with 129.3 points in August.

It stated that “the strongest optimism was recorded in Trade (192.0 points), followed by Manufacturing (151.9 points), while Services (123.2 points) registered the weakest level of optimism.”

According to the NESG, “The cautious outlook reflects persistent energy-related cost pressures, despite positive signals from expectations of stronger demand associated with election-related activities and year-end festivities.” 

The report further stated that “sentiment was uneven across sectors,” with Trade recording the highest level of optimism at 192.0 points, followed by Manufacturing at 151.9 points and Non-Manufacturing at 148.1 points.

Agriculture recorded 134.8 points, while Services had the weakest outlook at 123.2 points.

Despite the positive demand outlook, the NESG said businesses continued to face significant constraints.

“Despite this expansion, key constraints persisted, particularly limited access to finance, irregular electricity supply, high rental costs, insecurity, and inadequate infrastructure, which contributed to elevated cost pressures during the month,” it stated.