Sustained decline, not just drop in fossil-fuel emissions is needed

COP31 needs to chart a pathway for a just transition away from fossil fuels. It also needs to nudge countries to find ways to halt the depletion of carbon sinks

Total carbon emissions are expected to rise from 42.8 billion tonnes in 2025 to 43.3 billion tonnes this year.

3 min readNov 12, 2026 06:00 AM IST First published on: Nov 12, 2026 at 06:00 AM IST

For climate-change watchers confronted by soaring temperatures and extreme weather events, the latest Global Carbon Budget study may offer a modicum of solace. Presented on the second day of COP31 in Antalya, Turkey, it forecasts a slight decline in GHG emissions from fossil-fuel burning this year compared to 2025. But the report should be read with all its fine print. The drop is largely a fallout of the energy shock triggered by the Iran war and the expansion of wind and solar power use. Geopolitical upheavals and economic disruptions had catalysed reduced fossil-fuel use in 1992, 1998 and 2009, as did the Covid pandemic in 2020. These, however, remained single-year aberrations. Energy economics is today more favourable to renewables than in the pandemic years. Even so, much more is needed to ensure a sustained decline in emissions.

China, the world’s largest emitter, is expected to record a nearly 1 per cent fall in emissions this year. The US, Europe and Japan are also projected to see declines. India, however, remains an outlier. The Carbon Budget Study estimates that the country’s fossil fuel emissions will rise by more than 4 per cent this year compared to 2025. India has registered impressive growth in installed renewable energy capacity. However, storage shortfalls and inadequate grid infrastructure continue to stand in the way of optimal green-energy use. Energy generation is often abundant when the sun shines and winds blow, but much of the surplus cannot be used when nature is not an enabler. According to a report in this newspaper, the poor financial health of discoms is a hurdle, as these utilities seek to upgrade their infrastructure for renewable energy integration. India’s power companies have long been constrained by funding deficits. The green transition imperative should trigger renewed conversations on their economics

That said, renewable energy alone will not be enough to contain global warming. The projected decline in fossil-fuel emissions this year will, in fact, be offset by rising emissions from deforestation and land-use changes, particularly in Southeast Asia. Dry conditions associated with the Super El Niño could exacerbate peat fires in the coming weeks. Total carbon emissions are expected to rise from 42.8 billion tonnes in 2025 to 43.3 billion tonnes this year. The task before the delegates at Antalya is, therefore, clear. COP31 needs to chart a pathway for a just transition away from fossil fuels. It also needs to nudge countries to find ways to halt the depletion of carbon sinks.