Coalition strengthens as People of Israel crosses threshold, despite Likud dropping one seat - poll

The poll also found that after the previous survey showed the Reservists and Economic party crossing the threshold while Ofer Winter’s party did not, the two have now switched roles.

After the submission of party lists ahead of the Knesset elections, the coalition bloc has strengthened by three seats to 50, following People of Israel’s crossing of the electoral threshold. This is according to a Maariv poll conducted by Lazar Research, headed by Dr. Menachem Lazar, in cooperation with Panel4ALL.

However, Likud has lost one seat, falling to just 19, its lowest figure since May 29, 2025. As a result, the coalition bloc has gained only three seats overall. The poll also found that after the previous survey showed the Reservists and Economic party crossing the threshold while Ofer Winter’s party did not, the two have now switched roles: People of Israel crossed the threshold, while Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha’s party did not.

The Zionist opposition bloc holds 58 seats, while Arab parties receive 12 seats. The poll also found that the number of undecided voters dropped significantly following the closing of the party lists, from 11% to 7.5%.

In response to the question, “If Knesset elections were held today, which party would you vote for?” respondents answered: Yashar 25 seats, Likud 19, B’yachad 14, The Democrats 10, Yisrael Beytenu 9, Otzma Yehudit 8, United Torah Judaism 7, Shas 7, Joint Arab List 7, Ra’am 5, Religious Zionism-Zehut 5, and People of Israel 4.

The Reservists and Economic party (3%), Blue and White (1.3%), Noam for Israel (0.7%), and the Haredi Public party (0.4%) would not pass the electoral threshold.

Eisenkot maintains double digit lead over Netanyahu

Gadi Eisenkot also maintains a double digit lead over Benjamin Netanyahu this week in terms of suitability for prime minister, with 50% saying they see him as the more suitable candidate, compared with 38% who chose Netanyahu. Naftali Bennett also leads Netanyahu in the prime ministerial suitability question, with 45% compared with 40%.

The poll also found that an overwhelming majority, 79%, said that even if the party they vote for does not become part of the country’s leadership after the Knesset elections, they would remain in Israel. In contrast, 9% said they are considering leaving the country in such a scenario, while an additional 12% said they do not know how they would act.

Among voters of opposition parties, around 15% are considering leaving in such a situation, but only 2% said they are certain they would do so.

The poll was conducted on September 9–10. A total of 4,329 people were invited to participate, and 601 respondents answered, a 14% response rate. The sample represents Israel’s adult population aged 18 and older, including both Jewish and Arab citizens. The maximum sampling error is 4%.