Melaka victory could boost BN-PN’s push for early GE16, says analyst

Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) may push harder for an early 16th general election (GE16) in the hope of sustaining their political momentum if their cooperation secures a major victory in the Melaka polls this Saturday, an analyst says.

Mazlan Ali said the coalitions might be concerned about disruptions to their momentum by new political developments, including aggressive investigations by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC).

Although he did not name parties or individuals, two Umno supreme council members – Abdul Azeez Abdul Rahim and Jamil Khir Baharom – have been charged in connection with alleged abuse of power involving Tabung Haji. Both pleaded not guilty.

Mazlan, of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, said the confidence and supply agreement (CSA) between the government and 13 opposition MPs could also influence BN-PN’s political calculations ahead of GE16.

“Many issues are being exposed and investigated by MACC today. There may be concerns that developments over the next year or so could change the political landscape, ultimately benefiting Pakatan Harapan (PH),” he told FMT.

“That is why I think BN-PN want an early election,” he said, adding that their odds of winning would be better if GE16 were held in the near future.

BN won 48 of the 56 state assembly seats in the Johor election in July. In August, meanwhile, the BN-PN cooperation secured 25 of the 36 seats in Negeri Sembilan, enabling them to form the state government.

On Monday, PN chairman Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar said a BN-PN victory in Melaka could trigger further “political developments” and put pressure on PH, whose chairman Anwar Ibrahim is prime minister.

Yesterday, Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said dissolving Parliament to seek a fresh mandate would be better than a Cabinet reshuffle, following DAP secretary-general Loke Siew Fook’s resignation as transport minister.

However, Mazlan said a victory in Melaka would not necessarily lead to an early GE16, as the dissolution of Parliament is subject to the prime minister’s advice and the Yang di-Pertuan Agong’s consent.

He said Anwar had no reason to dissolve Parliament as long as he retained majority support in the Dewan Rakyat, particularly after the CSA with the opposition MPs which had strengthened the government’s position.

“I don’t see why Anwar would dissolve Parliament. The prime minister must wait until his mandate expires in February 2028,” Mazlan said.

Akademi Nusantara’s Azmi Hassan, meanwhile, said Anwar had no reason to entertain BN-PN’s calls for an early GE16, as PH had its own political challenges over the Najib Razak house arrest issue.

“If BN and PN secure a major victory in Melaka, it will only strengthen Anwar’s resolve not to dissolve Parliament.

“Although the pressure will intensify, dissolving Parliament after the Melaka election will not benefit PH,” he said.

Subscribe to our newsletter and get news delivered to your mailbox.