2027 Politics Watch: From Asaba rally’s death to Obi’s subsidy challenge

One person was killed and five others injured during an opposition procession in Asaba on Saturday, according to police, who said they had received a warning of possible violence. Organisers disputed aspects of the police account of security arrangements before the gathering.

In Port Harcourt, President Bola Tinubu accused Atiku Abubakar of using public resources to establish a private university. Atiku denied the allegation, saying his investment in education began in 1993. The university’s published history, however, dates the academy he cited to 2002.

Peter Obi also challenged Tinubu over subsidy savings and borrowing. Official financial records provide a basis for examining his claims, including the distinction between estimated additional federation revenue and the debt accumulated by successive administrations.

Tinubu received a pledge of electoral support from Rivers Governor Siminalayi Fubara under a coalition coordinated by Nyesom Wike, whose allies were also involved in a separate PDP leadership dispute. In Bauchi, Seyi Makinde launched his presidential campaign with a programme containing specific fiscal, education, and security commitments.

Police and organisers dispute Asaba security arrangements

The Delta State Police Command said the violence occurred at about 12.15 p.m. on Nnebisi Road during a procession organised by the Obidient/OK Movement, a group supporting Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso on the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) platform.

In a statement reported on Saturday, police spokesperson Bright Edafe said the command had received intelligence about possible violence and invited the organisers to a security meeting.

Police said they recommended holding the gathering at a designated venue where they could provide protection, rather than conducting an open-road procession. According to the command, the organisers proceeded despite that advice.

Delta State coordinator Favour Emerure disputed aspects of the police account. He said the organisers had notified the command and complied with instructions not to assemble at Inter-Bua Junction. He questioned why officers were absent when participants came under attack.

His account did not clarify whether the organisers had agreed to abandon the road procession altogether.

Reports from the scene described damaged campaign vehicles and attacks on participants.

NDC accused people associated with the All Progressives Congress (APC) of involvement. Delta APC spokesperson Valentine Onojeghuo rejected the allegation, saying no evidence linked his party to the violence.

Police said officers evacuated injured participants, reinforced security and opened an investigation. Their published account identified neither the victims nor those responsible.

The investigation must establish who carried out the attack and what protection was available after police received advance intelligence. Any Organisers’ failure to follow security advice would not, by itself, establish responsibility for the violence.

AUN records date Atiku’s ABTI Academy to 2002 amid funding row

President Tinubu made his allegation during an APC campaign rally at the Adokiye Amiesimaka Stadium in Port Harcourt.

The State House account records his assertion that Atiku used public funds to establish a private university while serving as vice-president between 1999 and 2007. It provided no financial documents supporting the accusation.

Atiku, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate, rejected the allegation through Phrank Shaibu, director of strategic communication of his campaign council.

He said he began laying the foundation for ABTI Academy in 1993, six years before becoming vice-president, and linked that investment to the subsequent establishment of the American University of Nigeria (AUN).

The university’s official history dates the establishment of ABTI Academy, a private primary and secondary school, to 2002.

According to the institution, the later university project was licensed as ABTI University in 2003. Construction began in October 2004, and the first 124 students were admitted during the 2005–2006 academic period.

The university’s licensing and construction therefore occurred during Atiku’s vice-presidency. Its records do not exclude preparations beginning in 1993, but his published response provided no dated documents supporting that earlier account.

Neither the chronology nor the statements exchanged on Saturday establish the source of the university’s construction funds. President Tinubu’s allegation that public resources were used remains unsupported by the financial evidence made available in the exchange.

Atiku also referred to Mr Tinubu’s 1993 United States civil forfeiture case. The proceeding was not a criminal conviction, a distinction the presidency previously emphasised while responding to separate litigation concerning access to US investigative records.

The former vice-president also renewed his proposal for a production-based fuel subsidy linked to domestic refining, promising lower petrol and diesel prices.

In a September statement, the APC Presidential Campaign Council challenged him to explain its cost, legal basis, and funding arrangements, including how support to refiners would translate into lower prices for consumers.

The council questioned whether the proposed arrangement would comply with the Petroleum Industry Act, which provides for market-based petroleum pricing. Atiku’s Saturday response reiterated the proposal but did not address those specific questions.

Official figures put Obi’s subsidy and borrowing claims in context

The debate over fuel subsidy policy also featured in Peter Obi’s criticism of Mr Tinubu’s economic record, although the NDC presidential candidate approached it from a different direction.

Rather than proposing a new intervention in petroleum pricing, Obi challenged President Tinubu to explain what Nigerians had gained from ₦15.8 trillion in subsidy savings and more than $100 billion he claimed the administration had borrowed.

He demanded measurable improvements in poverty reduction, school attendance, primary healthcare, electricity supply and security, questioning how increased government revenue had affected living conditions.

His subsidy figure closely matches an estimate published by the Federal Ministry of Finance, although the calculation covers resources attributed to different tiers of government.

An August 2026 fiscal analysis estimates ₦15.827 trillion in additional federation resources associated with subsidy removal between June 2023 and December 2025.

The ministry arrived at the figure by comparing actual net Federation Account revenue with a hypothetical revenue path had the pre-reform trend continued. That calculation uses an eight per cent annual growth assumption.

The amount is therefore an estimate of additional resources associated with the reform, not a cash balance accumulated in a single federal account.

In its detailed distribution, the ministry attributes ₦5.007 trillion of the estimated additional resources to the Federal Government, ₦6.525 trillion to states, ₦3.876 trillion to local governments and ₦419 billion to other statutory allocations, including the Federal Capital Territory.

The summary combines the Federal Government and other allocations into ₦5.426 trillion.

Any accounting of how those resources were spent must consequently cover federal, state and local governments, rather than treating the entire ₦15.827 trillion as money retained by the presidency.

The ministry lists wage adjustments, infrastructure, electricity support, and increased debt service costs among additional expenditure associated with the reforms.

Those expenditure categories do not establish how much reached individual projects or beneficiaries. Payment records, contracts, audited accounts and evidence of functioning public services would provide a more complete picture.

The borrowing claim is less straightforward.

The Debt Management Office’s June 2026 report records approximately $120.93 billion in outstanding domestic and external public debt across federal, state and Federal Capital Territory liabilities.

That stock includes debts accumulated over successive administrations. It cannot be equated with the amount Mr Tinubu’s government borrowed after assuming office in May 2023.

Determining borrowing attributable to his administration requires new loan and repayment records over a defined period, with adjustments for currency movements and other changes in the debt stock. Obi’s reported statement did not provide a calculation reconciling his figure with those records.

The government’s own fiscal scorecard describes household welfare as weak, although beginning to improve.

Fubara pledges three million votes through Wike-led coalition

At the Port Harcourt rally, Rivers Governor Siminalayi Fubara pledged to mobilise at least three million votes for Mr Tinubu under the leadership of Federal Capital Territory Minister Nyesom Wike.

He also promised support for candidates adopted by the Rainbow Coalition, which brings together politicians from the APC and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) without formally merging the parties.

The arrangement allows participating politicians to campaign for President Tinubu while supporting selected candidates on different platforms in governorship and legislative elections.

Mr Tinubu praised the reconciliation between Fubara and Wike after their prolonged struggle for political control in Rivers. Fubara, in turn, committed himself to the coalition coordinated by his predecessor.

His three-million-vote pledge was a mobilisation target, not a verified measure of electoral support.

Tinubu also urged young Nigerians to collect their permanent voter cards and defended the economic reforms introduced by his administration.

The presidency reported that he presented his 2027 manifesto at the event, although its account did not reproduce the detailed proposals.

President Tinubu also said his government was clearing inherited pension and gratuity arrears. Payment schedules, disbursement records and beneficiary information would show how much of the backlog had been settled.

The coalition’s support for candidates across party lines has also caused disagreements within the APC, where some leaders insist that members should campaign for their party’s candidates at every level.

Makinde sets fiscal and education targets at Bauchi campaign launch

In Bauchi, Seyi Makinde launched the Allied Peoples Movement’s (APM) presidential campaign at the Abubakar Tafawa Balewa Stadium alongside his running mate, Musa Daura, whose name appears on INEC’s final presidential candidate list.

Bauchi Governor Bala Mohammed endorsed Makinde, calling for appointments that reflect Nigeria’s diversity without sacrificing merit.

Governor Makinde urged Nigerians to support his proposed national reset and told voters to accept campaign money but vote according to their conscience.

The launch followed Wednesday’s manifesto presentation in Abuja.

His 74-page Reset Nigeria Manifesto contains quantified economic and education targets, alongside proposals for security coordination, federal-state relations and public accountability.

On fiscal policy, the document sets two targets for the end of the administration’s third year.

The first is to bring the actual federal fiscal deficit within three per cent of gross domestic product, except where departures are expressly permitted by law, and they are disclosed.

The second is to reduce the actual federal debt-service-to-revenue ratio to no more than 50 per cent. The manifesto cites a 67.22 per cent benchmark from the Federal Government’s third-quarter 2025 budget implementation report.

For primary education, the programme promises that at least 50 per cent of Primary Three learners will meet the national minimum literacy standard and 65 per cent the corresponding numeracy standard within three years.

It also targets a reduction of at least 25 per cent in the proficiency gap between the five highest- and five lowest-performing states.

Those education targets would be assessed against an independently administered baseline established in the first year, with federal support provided to participating states.

The security programme proposes a Threat-to-Action Standard under which authorities would identify the agency responsible for responding to credible threats, supporting institutions, command arrangements and deadlines for action.

Serious incidents or failures to respond would trigger operational reviews examining what information was available, how agencies acted and what corrections followed. Public accounts of findings would be issued while protecting sensitive intelligence.

The manifesto also promises a consolidated implementation plan within the first 100 days, identifying responsible institutions, legal requirements, milestones and the evidence needed to establish completion.

Quarterly scorecards would disclose progress, delays and corrective action, with significant results subject to independent verification.

Achieving the education targets would require sustained cooperation with state governments. Some proposed changes to security coordination and the distribution of government responsibilities would also depend on legislative action and inter-institutional agreements.

READ ALSO: 2027 Politics Watch: From ADC’s court appeal to APGA’s Tinubu endorsement

PDP candidates urge Supreme Court challenge over leadership ruling

In Abuja, governorship candidates aligned with the Kabiru Turaki-led PDP group urged a Supreme Court challenge to a Court of Appeal judgment favouring the rival leadership backed by Mr Wike.

The candidates made the demand during a solidarity visit to the Turaki group’s Interim National Working Committee in Abuja, PREMIUM TIMES reported.

Their representative, Sunday Biggs, also called for reconciliation, improved communication and stronger party organisation ahead of the 2027 elections.

On Wednesday, the Court of Appeal dismissed an appeal brought by the Adolphus Wabara-led Board of Trustees seeking to compel the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to recognise Mr Turaki’s interim leadership.

The appellate court upheld the lower court’s decision favouring the rival PDP leadership chaired by Abdulrahman Mohammed and supported by Mr Wike.

Mr Turaki told the visiting candidates that lawyers had been instructed to review the judgment and advise on the nextstepsn.

He expressed confidence that his group would eventually secure recognition and places on the ballot, despite the ruling.

Biggs urged the leadership to pursue a Supreme Court challenge urgently. However, the available reporting confirmed a legal review and a demand for an appeal, not that an appeal had been filed or that a subsequent court order had changed the judgement’s effect.