Philippines posts highest estimated adolescent HIV incidence in Asean

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines has gone from having one of the lowest estimated rates of new HIV infections among adolescents in Southeast Asia in 2000 to recording the region’s highest estimated incidence in 2025, according to newly released Unicef data.

The estimated incidence of new HIV infections among Filipinos aged 15 to 19 reached 0.49 per 1,000 uninfected adolescents in 2025, up from below 0.01 per 1,000 in 2000, based on Unicef’s Key HIV epidemiology indicators for children and adolescents aged 0–19, 2000–2025.

READ: HIV cases in PH surge 500%, prompting DOH call for health emergency

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The figures were analyzed by University of the Philippines (UP) Diliman associate professor and Inquirer data scientist Dr. Rogelio Alicor Panao, who noted that the Philippines’ trajectory was markedly different from that of several Southeast Asian countries that started with higher estimated adolescent HIV incidence.

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“Twenty-five years ago, the Philippines was among the Southeast Asian countries least affected by HIV among adolescents. Today, it has the region’s highest estimated incidence,” said Panao. 

“Put another way, that is about 49 new infections for every 100,000 uninfected adolescents in a year, or roughly one for every 2,000,” he added. 

As a rough illustration of the rate, Panao noted that in a high school with about 10,000 students, it would correspond to around five new infections in a year.

From one of the lowest to the highest

Data from Unicef showed that the Philippines had an estimated adolescent HIV incidence of below 0.01 per 1,000 in 2000. Its estimated rate then rose to 0.10 in 2011, 0.25 in 2019 and 0.49 in 2025, according to Panao.

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“Interestingly, countries in the Asean that started much worse have gone in the opposite direction,” Panao stated. 

Thailand, for instance, reduced its estimated incidence from 1.80 per 1,000 in 2000 to 0.29 in 2025. Myanmar brought its rate down from 1.26 to 0.43, while Cambodia reduced its estimate from 0.68 to 0.16.

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READ: DOH: New HIV cases decreased by 9 percent

Panao described the contrast as significant because the Philippines started with a much smaller estimated adolescent HIV problem than those countries.

“Twenty-five years ago, the Philippines was among the Southeast Asian countries least affected by HIV among adolescents. Today, it has the region’s highest estimated incidence,” he said. 

Philippines has taken steps

Still, Panao noted that the Philippines has introduced measures aimed at improving HIV prevention and access to testing.

Under Republic Act No. 11166, the age of consent for voluntary HIV testing was lowered to 15. The Philippines has also added pre-exposure prophylaxis, or PrEP, to the Philippine National Formulary.

Comprehensive sexuality education has likewise been expanded.

However, Panao said implementation remains uneven “due to local resistance, cultural taboos and other institutional bottlenecks.”

READ: HIV surge in the Philippines amid poor sex education, policy gaps

Prevention needs to reach young people

Panao said the rise in estimated incidence calls for consideration of measures that could make HIV prevention and testing more accessible to adolescents.

“[M]aybe it is time to give serious thought to expanding confidential, routine HIV testing beyond traditional clinics; ensuring consistent access to condoms, PrEP and HIV self-testing; strengthening comprehensive sexuality education; and bringing youth-focused prevention into the spaces where young people actually seek information and support, including online platforms,” he said.

He explained that the experience of other countries in the region shows that a high adolescent HIV incidence is not necessarily irreversible.

“Thailand, Myanmar and Cambodia have shown that high adolescent HIV incidence can be pushed down,” Panao said.

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“The Philippines began with a much smaller problem. It now stands to face a much bigger one,” he added.