Fall in small boat Channel crossings down to law enforcement, agency says

Law enforcement activity has been a "key factor" in reducing the number of small boat Channel crossings, the National Crime Agency (NCA) says.

The number of people arriving in the UK in the first half of 2026 was down 41% on the year before, government figures show.

The NCA said the drop followed a "significant increase in arrests and seizures", although added "fluctuating demand" for crossings, and the French authorities preventing boat launches had also played a role.

However, Mihnea Cuibus, a senior researcher at the University of Oxford University's Migration Observatory, says it is "impossible" to disentangle the effects of government policy and other factors on small boat arrivals.

While recent policy changes appear to have led smugglers and migrants to alter their behaviour, Cuibus says fewer unauthorised arrivals into the EU and developments in key origin countries - such as improved security in Syria - may be partially behind the decline.

"It is hard to know how much restrictive measures contributed to reducing [arrivals] in 2026," he continues.

He said limitations on refugee family reunion and a reduction in the asylum grant rate could also have had an impact.

The Conservatives have previously said the weather played a huge role in the fluctuating numbers of crossings from France and Belgium.

NCA director general of operations Rob Jones said the agency was "devoting more resources to tackling organised immigration crime than ever before".

"That is bringing results.

"However, we are not complacent, and the job is by no means done," he continued.

"We must continue to keep up the pressure on these criminal gangs, as they continue to put lives at risk in the Channel."

The NCA also pointed to activity targeting people smugglers reducing small boat crossings.

In the year to April 2026, arrests linked to organised immigration crime involving the NCA increased by more than 55%, it said.

The agency added it had also worked with social media networks to have more than 40,000 posts pages or accounts linked to immigration crime removed.

"We are making it more difficult and costlier for people smuggling networks to source equipment, more difficult to get it to the beaches and in the water, more difficult to communicate with potential customers, and more likely smugglers will be confronted by law enforcement," said Jones.

"Our message to the gangs is clear – moving people in small boats and supplying equipment gets riskier for you by the day," he continued.

However, the Migration Observatory said "most notably" there had been a sharp decline in detected unauthorised border crossings into the EU.

It said arrivals fell 26% in 2025, before declining another 37% in the first half of 2026.

"This is likely to lead, with a lag, to fewer unauthorised crossings to the UK, since most small boat migrants travel through the EU before reaching beaches in northern France," it added.