Disruptive era: Building a resilient economy

Today, disruption has become the new normal. Geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, technological upheavals, cyber threats, climate-related disruptions, and financial market volatility are reshaping the global economic landscape. While these shocks create uncertainty, they also present opportunities for economies that anticipate disruptions and are prepared, adaptable, and resilient. Recent assessments by the International Monetary Fund (indicate that global growth remains positive but subdued, projected at approximately 3.1 per cent in 2026 (a dampening from the 3.2 per cent recorded in 2025), reflecting the impact of heightened policy uncertainty, rising protectionism, and geopolitical risks. In this environment, resilience has emerged as a key determinant of sustainable growth and long-term economic prosperity.

Economic resilience is an economy’s ability to anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and recover from shocks while preserving stability, productivity, and confidence. It is no longer sufficient for economies to react to crises merely; they must be structured to withstand disruption and emerge stronger from it. This reality formed the central message of the 19th Annual Banking and Finance Conference of The Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, themed “Building a Resilient Economy in an Era of Disruptions – Imperatives for the Banking and Financial Services Industry”. As the conference communiqué highlighted, resilience is not simply one policy priority among many. Rather, it is the foundation upon which economic growth, financial stability, inclusion, innovation, and national competitiveness are built. A powerful perspective was offered by President Bola Tinubu, whose address during the conference emphasised that: “Resilience is not the absence of disruptions. It is our capacity to turn disruption into transformation.” This statement captures the defining challenge of modern economic management. The objective is not to eliminate disruption, which is an impossible task in a highly interconnected world, but to create systems capable of adapting and thriving amid uncertainty.

One of the most significant lessons from recent global and domestic experiences is that resilience begins with preparedness. This is in line with one of the resolutions of the CIBN Conference that called on the Central Bank of Nigeria, the Bankers’ Committee, financial institutions, and security agencies to establish proactive resilience frameworks capable of anticipating, absorbing, and recovering from disruptions before they escalate into crises. This approach has already produced measurable results. According to data presented at the conference by the Nigeria Police Force National Cybercrime Centre, electronic banking fraud losses declined significantly from N52bn in 2024 to N25bn in 2025, reflecting the impact of stronger regulation, enhanced monitoring, improved enforcement, and greater institutional preparedness. The lesson is clear: resilience is most effective when built before a crisis occurs.

Resilient economies are built on credible institutions, prudent fiscal management, regulatory certainty, and policy consistency. The IMF continues to emphasise the importance of rebuilding fiscal buffers, maintaining Central Bank independence, strengthening governance, and preserving financial stability as critical safeguards against future shocks.  Within the financial sector, resilience extends beyond capital adequacy. The Deputy Governor, Financial System Stability, Central Bank of Nigeria, Mr Lamido Yuguda, noted at the conference: “Recapitalisation is not an end in itself; its success will be measured by its impact on the financial system and the real economy.” This distinction is important. Capital provides a buffer, but resilience requires strong governance, effective risk management, regulatory vigilance, and the capacity to adapt to changing economic conditions.

Economies that rely heavily on a single commodity export product, or revenue source, remain vulnerable to external shocks. Diversification across agriculture, manufacturing, technology, services, and value-added industries creates multiple growth drivers and reduces exposure to volatility. For Nigeria, this means accelerating the transition from commodity dependence toward a more productive and diversified economy. Nigeria must strengthen its agricultural capacity to produce more of what it consumes, reduce dependence on global supply chains, and build greater resilience against external shocks. The CIBN conference also highlighted the need to rebalance credit allocation toward the economy’s real sectors, particularly those capable of generating employment, productivity gains, and export competitiveness.

Artificial Intelligence, digital finance, automation, and emerging technologies are rapidly transforming economic activities. While these innovations present significant opportunities, they also create new vulnerabilities and competitive pressures. The IMF identifies technological advancement, especially AI-driven productivity improvements, as a key factor that can improve long-term growth outcomes. Building resilience therefore requires sustained investment in education, digital infrastructure, cybersecurity, research, innovation, and workforce skills.

The economies that will lead the future will be those that cultivate adaptable, technology-enabled populations capable of responding to rapid change.

In an increasingly digital economy, financial resilience and cyber resilience have become inseparable. Financial institutions must strengthen operational resilience, enhance cybersecurity frameworks, and deepen industry collaboration to mitigate systemic risks. Partner, Cyber Risk Services, Deloitte Africa, Mrs Funmilola Odumuboni, observed at the conference: “One institution’s cyber failure can become everyone’s problem.”  This underscores the need for collective vigilance, shared intelligence, and ecosystem-wide security standards capable of protecting critical financial infrastructure.

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Resilience is not only about systems and capital; it is also about people. The CIBN conference recognised inclusive leadership as a strategic enabler of resilience, emphasizing the importance of broadening leadership opportunities and strengthening diversity in decision-making. As noted by a past President of CIBN, Lady Otunba ‘Debola Osibogun, in one of the sessions in the conference: “Inclusive leadership is not a courtesy extended to women; it is a strategic imperative for resilience.”  Similarly, climate resilience is increasingly central to economic resilience. Sustainable infrastructure, renewable energy investments, climate-smart agriculture, and disaster preparedness are no longer environmental considerations alone; they are economic necessities.

Nigeria’s recent economic performance offers grounds for cautious optimism. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, real GDP growth accelerated to 4.43 per cent in Q2 2026, up from 3.89 per cent in Q1, reflecting improving economic momentum. Meanwhile, foreign exchange reserves climbed to US$55bn in September 2026, while external sector indicators strengthened, highlighting the positive impact of ongoing reforms and improving macroeconomic fundamentals. These developments demonstrate that resilience is achievable when sound policies are supported by strong institutions, financial sector stability, and economic diversification. Our ultimate goal as a country is to cascade improved macroeconomic fundamentals to the micro level, individuals, households and businesses.

Yet resilience is ultimately measured not by performance in stable periods, but by the ability to withstand and adapt to shocks. In a world shaped by geopolitical tensions, technological disruption, cyber threats, and climate risks, the challenge is no longer whether disruptions will occur, but how effectively economies respond to them.

The 19th Annual Banking and Finance Conference underscored resilience as a national imperative. Strong institutions, prudent economic management, investment in people and technology, and a secure, innovative financial system are no longer optional; they are Imperatives.  For Nigeria, that transformation must remain the goal. The nations that will thrive in the years ahead will not be those that avoid shocks, but those that adapt, innovate, and emerge stronger from them. Resilience, therefore, is not merely a safeguard against uncertainty; it is the pathway to sustainable prosperity and lasting national progress.

Dr Alabi is the President/Chairman of Council of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria