Diesel, Midterms, Low Stocks: Why Trump Blinked On Russian Oil Sanctions

India had a tariff of up to 100 per cent hanging over it. Then, days before it could have taken effect on 18 October, US President Donald Trump waived sanctions under the Russia sanctions law. India is one of the world's largest buyers of Russian crude. The sudden reversal raises a question: why has Trump softened his stance on Russia and the countries that buy its oil?

The answer may lie closer to home. The move comes days after Trump announced a deal to import diesel from Russia, as he tries to ease domestic fuel prices ahead of the November midterm elections.

Trump recently said, "Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority."

High diesel prices have become a growing political and economic concern in the US. They have pushed up freight costs, farm expenses and, ultimately, food prices for consumers.

US Oil Inventory Over 20-Year Low

According to Madhavi Arora, Chief Economist at Emkay Global, the waiver is also aimed at preventing another spike in oil prices.

"This move is similarly aimed at preventing Russian supply from going off the market and causing a further spike in global oil prices so close to the midterms."

Trump's challenge goes beyond high diesel prices. US oil and petroleum product inventories have also fallen sharply. According to the Energy Information Administration, inventories stood at about 1.51 billion barrels on 9 October 2026, down from more than 2.11 billion barrels at their pandemic-era peak in 2020. The latest level is the lowest since 2003.

Low inventories leave the US more exposed to global oil shocks. Any further disruption to international supplies could cause a disproportionately large rise in domestic fuel prices, including diesel.

Major Relief For Russia Amid Oil Losses

The waiver also comes as a major relief for Russia, whose oil sector has been under growing pressure. According to the Kyiv School of Economics, Russia's oil exports fell to 6.4 million barrels per day in August, the lowest level since 2018. Refinery runs have dropped to a more than 20-year low after repeated Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure.

Russia's total oil exports fell by 410,000 barrels per day in a single month. Estimated oil revenue losses since the war began in 2022 have crossed $200 billion.

Relief For India May Not Last

For India, Trump's midterm-driven pragmatism offers temporary relief. But analysts caution that the respite may not last beyond the election cycle.

"This should be a sentimental positive for India. However, we note Trump's flip-flops towards Russia, as well as his general animosity towards India during his term so far, and thus caution that there may be more to come in this story post-midterms," Arora added.

In the near term, Trump's political priority appears clear: keeping fuel prices under control. With diesel costs high, inventories low and elections weeks away, keeping oil flowing may have become more important than tightening the screws on Russia and its biggest energy customers.