Andy Burnham’s advisers ‘pushing for early election’

Advisers in No 10 are reportedly pushing for Andy Burnham to call an early election next year as part of an attempt to keep Labour in power.

It comes after a YouGov MRP poll, which predicts how constituencies would vote, suggested the Tories and Reform UK would be left stranded on a combined 253 seats while Labour would be the biggest party with 241.

According to The Telegraph, senior members of Mr Burnham’s team think calling an election in spring would give his party the best chance of winning another majority.

The latest MRP poll indicated Labour would fall 85 seats short of a majority, meaning the party would need coalition allies with the Lib Dems projected at 71 seats and Greens on 9 seats to get them over the line.

However, many of those who back an early election have warned the prime minister would only be able to call one if the crisis in the Middle East has been resolved, easing off the cost of living crisis and pushing down energy prices.

One senior government source told the newspaper there was a “diverse opinion across government” over the timing of the next election but said Mr Burnham would be “naive not to be contemplating all scenarios”.

They argued that Sir Keir Starmer’s election manifesto has left the party with “one hand tied behind our back”.

“There are lots of things we can do within the red lines of the manifesto, but that is not the prime minister’s manifesto”, she source said.

“I am sure there are lots of things Andy would want to include in a manifesto that he wouldn’t be able to do at the minute.”

The latest YouGov MRP poll, which used data from almost 17,000 British people, projected the Conservatives and Reform UK would be the second and third largest parties in a hung parliament, if a general election were held tomorrow.

If the Conservatives were to win their projected 130 seats, it would be a nine-seat improvement on the party’s performance at the 2024 general election, when it lost its majority in the House of Commons.

The polling suggests Reform UK, which currently has eight MPs, would make significant gains to finish with 123 seats.

With 253 seats between them, a Conservative-Reform UK coalition would fail to pass the 326-seat bar for a majority in the House of Commons.

YouGov’s modelling also showed Labour would be the largest party with 241 seats, with the Liberal Democrats on 71, SNP on 40, Plaid Cymru on 15 and the Green Party on nine.

Although Reform made gains in the devolved and local elections this May, the party has since become bogged down in controversies over donations to Mr Farage, has faced competition on its right from Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain, and has lost its lead in voting intention polls since Andy Burnham took office.

To make matters worse for Mr Farage, a major donations scandal completely overshadowed what he hoped would be a significant comeback speech at Reform’s party conference in Birmingham.

Allegations that the party arranged illegal donations led to the resignation on Friday of Mr Farage’s chief of staff and longtime aide Dan Jukes, as well as policy director James Orr.

One source told the Telegraph that, as well as Downing Street advisers, some of the party’s MPs are also backing an early election after a number of other polls also showed Reform trailing Labour.