Three questions for Aaron Judge and the Yankees as injury casts doubt on slugger's playoff availability

Friday was a bad day for the New York Yankees even though they opened their final road series of the regular season with a blowout win (NYY 9, ARI 2). Captain Aaron Judge is headed back to the injured list with a right calf strain less than two weeks after returning from a fractured rib that sidelined him more than three months. Judge's status for the rest of the season is up in the air.

"I don't have a timeline on him. I'm not going to predict anything. We'll just obviously treat it and see what transpires," manager Aaron Boone said (via MLB.com). "... The reality is, we've had to play a lot of the season this year without him. There's no replacing a player who is as great as Aaron Judge, but we have high expectations. Those don't change now."

The Yankees are always cagey about Judge's injuries. They declined to reveal the severity of the calf strain or give a timetable for his return. Generally speaking, Grade 1 calf strains (the least severe) require 2-3 weeks on the injured list, though calves are very tricky and easy to reinjury. They must be allowed to heal fully, otherwise you risk a more severe injury.

For all intents and purposes, the Yankees are locked into the top wild-card spot. They're six games up in the loss column on the Boston Red Sox, who currently sit in the second wild card spot, plus the Yankees won the season series and have the tiebreaker, so it's really a seven-game lead. New York can clinch the top wild-card spot as soon as Sunday.

The AL East title remains mathematically possible, but it is a long shot. The Yankees are four games behind the Tampa Bay Rays in the loss column with four head-to-head games remaining next week in the Bronx. The Rays only need to win one of those four games to clinch the season series and secure the tiebreaker, upping the difficulty for New York.

Just to lay it all out, here's what needs to happen for the Yankees to win the AL East, assuming they sweep those four games against the Rays and clinch the tiebreaker for themselves, which is a pretty big assumption:

• Rays go 6-3 or better: Rays win AL East
• Rays go 5-4: Yankees must go 9-0
• Rays go 4-5: Yankees must go 8-1
• Rays go 3-6: Yankees must go 7-2
• Rays go 2-7: Yankees must go 6-3
• Rays go 1-8: Yankees must go 5-4
• Rays go 0-9: Yankees must go 4-5

The Yankees have already clinched a postseason spot and winning the AL East was a long shot even with Judge. These last nine regular-season games are almost meaningless. If the AL East race gets interesting in a few days, the Yankees can shift gears, but  the big picture takes priority this next week. Resting key relievers, lining up the rotation for the Wild Card Series, etc. 

"Missing Judge, it hurts. We all know he's the best hitter in the game," Cody Bellinger said (via MLB.com). "For us in here, our mindset is, we're going to have to find a way. I think the talent in this locker room speaks for itself. I'm fully confident that we have enough talent in here that we can go out and win, and beat anybody."

With the postseason less than two weeks away, Judge's calf injury creates a lot of questions for both him and the Yankees overall. Here are three questions for the man himself, and his team.

Three questions for Judge

1. Will he return for the postseason? This is really the only question, right? The Yankees are built around Judge being the best hitter in the world, and when he's not, the walls begin to cave in. New York had one of the lowest-scoring offenses in baseball when Judge was out with his rib injury. To paraphrase another New York baseball legend, Judge is the straw that stirs the drink.

Judge is eligible to come off the injured list next Sunday, the final day of the regular season. Roster-wise, he can return in time for the postseason. Health-wise, we have no idea. Calf strains are rarely 10-day absences, but that's what the Yankees have to hope is the case here. There's a very real chance the Yankees are without Judge for at least the Wild Card Series, and maybe longer.

2. Will he be himself at the plate? Judge did not go on a minor-league rehab assignment before returning from the rib injury and it showed. He went 4 for 23 (.174) with one walk and 13 strikeouts in his seven games back before the calf injury. His timing was not there at all. Judge's one homer came on a hanging breaking ball. Otherwise, pitchers threw fastballs by him consistently.

To put a number on it, Judge missed with 41% of his swings against fastballs in his seven games back, more than double the 19% league average. This is what it looks like when you miss with more than two out of every five swings against heaters:

It is not exactly a surprise a hitter who did not go on a rehab assignment after spending more than three months on the shelf looked out of sorts at the plate. Judge and the Yankees knew it would take him some time to get back up to speed at the plate, and they were willing to live with it. The goal was always to be ready for the postseason, not so much the regular season.

These last nine games aren't particularly important for the Yankees in the standings, but they were incredibly important to Judge. He needed at-bats to rediscover his timing at the plate, and get back to being the dominant hitter he's been throughout his career. The calf strain puts that on pause. Judge now has even fewer at-bats available to get back to being himself.

3. Will he be able to play the field? There is a scenario in which Judge plays through the calf strain as a full-time DH who doesn't run at 100% (or close to it). How the Yankees would align their defense in that scenario, I have no idea. Ben Rice is a full-time DH these days and also New York's best non-Judge hitter. Platoon-mates Luis Gárcia Jr. and Paul Goldschmidt are first basemen.

Unless the Yankees do something unexpected, like put Gárcia back at second base (where he was terrible defensively) or Rice back behind the plate (where he was also terrible defensively), slotting Judge in at DH means one of the team's most productive hitters will have to sit. This is something the Yankees will worry about when the time comes, and not a second sooner.

Three questions for the Yankees

1. Where will the righty pop come from? The Yankees have a very lefty-heavy lineup and Judge's righty heft provides important balance. Only the Cleveland Guardians have gotten fewer plate appearances from righties this season. Friday's lineup against Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Eduardo Rodriguez could be what the Yankees run out there against lefties in October:

1. 1B Paul Goldschmidt, RHB
2. LF Cody Bellinger, LHB
3. RF Heliot Ramos, RHB
4. DH Ben Rice, LHB
5. 3B Amed Rosario, RHB
6. CF Spencer Jones, LHB
7. SS George Lombard Jr., RHB
8. C Austin Wells, LHB
9. 2B Anthony Volpe, RHB

Goldschmidt and Ramos are lefty mashers. Bellinger and Rice are very productive left-on-left hitters. Jones has performed well against lefties as a big leaguer, though his minor-league track record against southpaws isn't great. Rosario is having his worst season against lefties. The 7-8-9 spots are unlikely to make an impact offensively, regardless of the pitcher's handedness.

That lineup would look much more imposing with Judge in the No. 3 spot. Perhaps this is not such a big concern though? Since trade deadline day, the Yankees have the highest batting average (.289) and on-base percentage (.362) against lefties, and the third-highest slugging percentage (.456) despite Judge not playing much, and not being much of a factor when he did play.

In all likelihood the Yankees will host the Red Sox in the Wild Card Series, and Boston has three quality lefty starters (Jake Bennett, Ranger Suárez, Payton Tolle) and a shutdown lefty relief tandem (Aroldis Chapman, Erik Miller). To beat the Red Sox, the Yankees will need their righty hitters to produce, and now the status of their best right-handed hitter is in question.

2. Will the pitching hold up? Despite not having Judge for more than three months, the Yankees have the American League's best run differential (+143) and second-best record (89-64). They can thank their pitching staff. New York has allowed only 3.68 runs per game this year, the fewest in baseball. Since trade deadline day, it's an incredible 3.37 runs allowed per game.

There are some cracks beginning to form, however. Gerrit Cole has surrendered eight home runs in his last three starts, including five on a four-seam fastball that is no longer the dominant pitch it was at his peak. Max Fried's velocity has been down a tick since returning from a bone bruise in his elbow late last month. That injury has sent him to the injured list twice this year.

Cam Schlittler, the AL Cy Young favorite, has thrown a career-high 184 ⅔ innings with two regular-season starts remaining, plus the postseason. Key late-inning relievers Paul Blackburn, David Bednar, and Brent Headrick have worked a lot -- A LOT -- this season and have all shown a slight dip in velocity in recent weeks, which perhaps is a sign the workload is catching up to them.

Without Judge (and sometimes even with him), the Yankees are a run prevention team. Their superpower is a suffocating pitching staff that is among the best in baseball at limiting hard contact, particularly in the air. With Judge absent, the pitching staff and the ability to prevent runs in general will be of paramount importance. No Judge reduces the margin of error considerably.

3. What about their other injured players? Judge is not the only injured Yankee. Center field Trent Grisham has not played since Sept. 4 due to a Grade 2 hamstring strain. On Friday, Boone said Grisham is pretty far into his running program, and he could make it back before the end of the regular season. That would give the outfield a lift should Judge miss extended time.

Second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. has not played since jamming his thumb sliding into second base on Sept. 8. Boone said Chisholm will come off the injured list when the Yankees return home next week. He's had a down year overall, but Chisholm was playing his best baseball of the season right before the injury. He's an important presence given his speed and defense in particular.

Left-hander Ryan Weathers is working his way back from a flexor strain. He last pitched Aug. 22. Weathers is throwing bullpen sessions, though Boone confirmed he won't return during the regular season. If/when Weathers does return, it will be as a reliever. He has bullpen experience and the Yankees could use middle relief help, but Weathers has to make it back first.

At minimum, Chisholm and Grisham would give the Yankees more options for their Judge-less lineup, even if they only platoon. It wouldn't be hard to find a role for Weathers, who had allowed no more than one run in six of his last seven starts before the injury. Bottom line though, the Yankees need Judge. Everything else is secondary to his return and effectiveness.