Fitch Solutions maintains nearly 6% growth rate for Ghana in 2026, but expects economy to lose momentum in 2027

Fitch Solutions has maintained its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast of nearly 6.0% for Ghana in 2026.

According to the UK-based firm, the Ghanaian economy has remained largely insulated from global developments over the past year, supported by elevated gold prices, low domestic inflation, and the transmission of the Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) 1,400 basis points easing cycle.

“While elevated oil prices have increased the energy import bill, Ghana remains broadly net neutral in oil trade thanks to the Jubilee and TEN offshore fields, with the oil trade deficit coming in at just 0.3% of GDP in Q2 [Quarter 2} 2026”.

“With our Commodities team forecasting gold prices to remain elevated at US$4,200/oz [per ounce], we expect the current account surplus to remain sizeable at 5.3% of GDP in 2027, supporting Ghana’s reserve position and limiting exchange-rate depreciation”, it added.

Nonetheless, Fitch Solutions expects the economy to lose some momentum, with growth slowing from 5.9% in 2026 to 4.7% in 2027.

This will be caused in part by inflation rising from an annual average of 4.7% in 2026 to 11.3% in 2027, reflecting unfavourable base effects, rapid money supply growth, and higher global food prices linked to El Niño.

Combined with slower credit growth as the BoG resumes monetary tightening, the UK-based firm pointed out that these factors will weigh on domestic demand.

For most Sub-Saharan African economies, it pointed out that a more persistent inflationary environment will erode purchasing power and weigh on private consumption and business activity, creating a headwind to growth in 2027.

For oil-exporting markets, however, elevated energy prices will continue to support export earnings and fiscal revenues by more than we had earlier anticipated, providing a temporary boost to growth prospects.

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