A £25 basket of shopping six years ago is now 50.2% more expensive - here are the items that have increased most

It's no secret that the price of the weekly supermarket shop has become more expensive.

Many of our household staples feel like they have jumped in price in recent years, with food inflation rampant.

But just how much has a basket of essential items risen in Britain since the tail-end of summer 2020?

Exclusive analysis for This is Money and the Daily Mail shows that a £25.04 basket of 25 supermarket essentials in September 2020 now costs nearly £38. 

Chocolate, olive oil, beef mince and eggs have seen some of the biggest rises while Digestive biscuits, baked beans and tea bags have experienced the least movement.

Experts put this 50.2 per cent rise down to a combination of higher energy and staff costs, extreme weather, business rates and packaging tax.

Could supermarkets be ramping up costs? And when, if ever, will prices start to fall? 

We spoke to the British Retail Consortium (BRC), National Farmers Union (NFU) and a retail expert to find out more. 

The data used for analysis was provided by Assosia, a UK-based global retail research agency.

It's based on the average pre-promotion prices across Tesco, Sainsbury's, Asda and Morrisons, and spans from 2020 to 2026.

Our graphic shows the 10 items with the greatest price hikes, while the full list is included below.

Minced beef has increased the most in price, costing £2.81 for a 500g pack in 2020 and £5.08 today.

Olive oil has increased by £2.04, milk chocolate by £1.25, and chicken thighs by £1.24.

Free range medium eggs have risen by 91p, mature cheddar by 86p, pink lady apples by 52p and salted crisps by 49p. 

Meanwhile semi-skimmed milk has become 40p more expensive, and 57p for mairs piper potatoes. 

The largest hike occurred between 2021 and 2022 where the total basket cost rose from £24.55 to £30.87, a £6.33 increase. 

Supermarkets NOT to blame for food inflation

Jonathan de Mello says 'grocery prices will never fall back to 2020 levels'

Jonathan de Mello, a retail expert, says supermarkets are not to blame for price hikes.

He says: 'These figures paint a stark picture of the compounding pressures UK consumers have faced over the last six years. 

'While a 10p or 20p rise on individual items like bread or baked beans might seem incremental on paper, the cumulative effect on an average weekly shop is substantial. 

'Moreover, core staples and proteins -such as beef mince up by £2.26, extra virgin olive oil up by £2.04, and chicken thighs up by £1.24 - represent massive percentage increases that directly squeeze household budgets. 

'The drivers behind these increases are not a case of supermarkets simple 'profiteering' or ramping up costs unnecessarily, as grocers operate on thin margins in a highly competitive environment. 

'Instead, these hikes reflect systemic input cost pressures that have hit the supply chain simultaneously since 2020: skyrocketing energy costs, import frictions, acute agricultural labour shortages, and extreme weather patterns disrupting global crop yields. 

New packaging tax and farmers at breaking point

Harvir Dhillon, lead economist at the BRC, says employment costs, a new packaging tax and business rates are leading influencers.

He says: 'Food prices continue to reflect rising costs across the supply chain. 

'The last few years have seen a sharp increase in non-commodity costs for food, higher employment costs, a new packaging tax and a business rates surtax on large supermarkets and warehouses. 

'At the same time, increasingly volatile weather conditions across the globe are putting further pressure on food production and supply. 

'Retailers continue to absorb as much of these pressures as possible, but sustained cost increases are making that increasingly difficult.'

For members of the National Farmers Union, the price hikes reflect quite a different story.  

Tom Bradshaw, NFU President says: 'Many of our members are at a financial crisis point after the worst drought in 50 years resulted in historically low harvests, stunted grass growth and caused field crops to fail due to the lack of water.

'This has been compounded by increased production costs for fuel, fertiliser and energy due to the war in the Middle East.

'Livestock and dairy farmers are also currently battling a disease called bluetongue which is spreading rapidly across the country with over 1,200 confirmed cases so far.

'We are warning that without immediate action, next year's food production and the future of the next generation of farmers is at risk.'

He adds that farmers do not set supermarket prices.

While they are keen to keep producing affordable food but dry weather, rising production costs and global instability makes it difficult.

Last week, the NFU published a new report showing self-sufficiency in 10 out of 11 everyday foods, such as vegetables, beef and eggs have fallen in the last 30 years. 

At the same time, the country's reliance on imported food continues to grow. For all food, self-sufficiency fell from 74 per cent in 1995 to 60 per cent in 2025. 

For indigenous food, it fell from 87 per cent in 1995 to 72 per cent in 2025. 

Indigenous foods are foods that can be commercially produced in the UK because they are suited to the UK's climate and growing conditions. 

The 'indigenous food' self-sufficiency measure excludes foods that cannot realistically be grown here at scale, such as bananas and most citrus fruits.

Mr de Mello says: 'Inflation continues to tick upwards, and grocery prices will never fall back to 2020 levels. 

'The best we could expect to see is a level of price stabilisation. 

'Supermarkets will continue to compete fiercely on price via loyalty schemes and matching initiatives to win footfall, but the baseline cost of the British shopping basket has permanently shifted upward.'