Vote-splitting fears troubling parties ahead of Melaka polls, say analysts

Political analysts say parties are reluctant to contest elections on their own due to the electoral consequences of vote-splitting and concerns about exposing internal weaknesses.

Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia said fragmentation of the Malay vote represented the parties’ “biggest fear”, especially for Umno and PAS.

“If the Malay vote is split, they may still win, but it could be a repeat of the 2021 Melaka state election, where more than a third of the seats were won by slim majorities.

“People might then question the legitimacy (of the winning party). The idea of (Umno and PAS) working together is to show they have the people’s mandate, so they can effectively defeat Pakatan Harapan,” she told FMT.

Syaza was commenting on a suggestion by Umno Supreme Council member Puad Zarkashi that all political coalitions and parties contest the Melaka polls on their own to gauge their actual strength ahead of GE16.

Analyst Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri of Global Asia Consulting said political parties that contest independently risk discovering that their actual level of support is considerably smaller than what their leaders claim.

“A party that regularly pushes for a large share of seats may discover that its (actual) electoral influence does not justify its demands,” he said.

Zaharuddin also said smaller parties may lack sufficient candidates, funding, election machinery and grassroots networks to compete effectively across constituencies, while other parties may fear that a poor result would weaken their bargaining position ahead of GE16.

Melaka: the right testing ground

Syaza said both BN and Perikatan Nasional (PN) can use the upcoming Melaka election to determine which side commands the support of the Malay electorate in the state.

“We know that if they work together, they can secure a large percentage of the Malay vote, but we would not know whether that support is driven primarily by Umno or PAS,” she said.

However, Syaza said that if both parties contest independently and PAS emerges as the more influential force, it may no longer be accurate to speak of a “blue wave”.

Zaharuddin said that Melaka offers a valuable political testing ground, with the results of the preceding state election offering a useful benchmark for parties to assess their electoral gains and losses.

In 2021, BN won 21 state assembly seats, followed by PH (5) and PN (two).

“However, the real value of going solo extends beyond counting seats. It allows parties to examine their actual appeal, organisational strength, candidate quality and ability to attract voters beyond their traditional support base.

“Coalitions can sometimes create an illusion of strength by combining different voter bases.

“Contesting independently helps reveal which parties possess genuine grassroots support and which depend heavily on the machinery, reputation or electoral appeal of their partners,” he said.

PAS, PH should go solo

Syaza expects PAS in particular to contest the Melaka state polls on its own despite its push for ummah unity with Umno and BN. She said doing so could strengthen the party’s bargaining position.

PAS currently holds two of Melaka’s six parliamentary seats, Tangga Batu and Jasin, while BN failed to win a single seat in GE15.

She added that PAS could gain leverage in future negotiations with BN if it were to outperform Umno, as it did in GE15.

“But if they lose and BN forms the government in Melaka, it will just be status quo. It’s not like PAS would be losing a state.”

Zaharuddin believes PH should also contest independently in Melaka, particularly if it wants to establish a credible foundation for GE16.

“PH needs to know whether voters continue to support its reform agenda, whether its component parties will retain their respective constituencies, and whether it can persuade undecided voters that it offers a credible alternative government,” he said.

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